Monday features a nine-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Germán Márquez, Colorado Rockies at Texas Rangers ($8,500) — There are more expensive pitchers on this slate, but why spend up? Márquez is a top-tier pitcher with a great matchup? The game is sitting at an 8.5 O/U making it the third lowest on this slate, but it would not be surprising for this game to have the second lowest implied run total by first pitch based on the offenses. The Rockies cannot hit on the road and the Rangers cannot hit either — 86 wRC+, .294 wOBA, .155 ISO and a 24% K rate against right-handed pitching. Like several of the Colorado pitchers, Márquez has inexplicably pitched better at Coors this season, but his split are far less pronounced. Overall, his fundamentals are great this year. He’s keeping the ball on the ground (52%) and in the park (0.9 HR/9 — impressive for a Colorado pitcher) and generating swings and misses (13%), and that’s allowed him to sport a 3.44 xFIP and 3.5 WAR.
Other Option: Zack Wheeler ($10,000)
A.J. Alexy, Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies ($4,700) — It’s okay to play two pitchers from the same game. “But I need those win bonus points!” A pitcher this cheap does not need the bonus points. All Alexy needs to do is eat innings, not get blown up and strike out a few batters. Colorado is the best team to target with a value pitcher because they do not pose much of a threat on the road — 67 wRC+, .272 wOBA, .112 ISO and a 24.6% K rate against right-handed pitching. So what do we know about Alexy? He’s the No. 23 prospect for the Rangers, but his start in the rotation is less of a promotion and more of an emergency — COVID-19 outbreak. Due to a 2019 injury and the weird 2020 season, Alexy has pitched very few innings. In 65 innings — 10 starts — between Double-A and Triple-A, Alexy has a tidy 1.66 ERA with 10.6 K/9. He tends to be more of a fly ball pitcher, but he has kept the ball in the park (0.8 HR/9) and that has translated into a fortuitous .233 BABIP — but that’s common for fly ball pitchers. The last stat worth mentioning is that he is sporting an unsustainable 98.4% strand rate, and when the number regresses, his other stats will worsen, but the good news is that he has not given in with runners on base.
Other Option: Chris Paddack ($5,600)
Omar Narváez, Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants ($4,500) — This game has a surprisingly low run total. Johnny Cueto ($7,700) is being given a lot of respect by the oddsmakers, but based on his price tag, DraftKings does not agree. Against left-handed batters, Cueto has allowed a .338 wOBA and a .202 ISO. Narváez has a .368 wOBA, .172 ISO, 130 wRC+ and a 17% K rate against right-handed pitchers.
Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox ($4,300) — DFS players love to chase cheap home runs from the catcher spot, but if they pay a little bit more, then they can increase their odds. Zunino has a lot of power against right-handed pitching (.253 ISO, 42% hard contact rate and a 51.6% fly ball rate) and Nick Pivetta ($6,800) allows hard contact (34%) and fly balls (44%) to right-handed batters resulting in 1.3 HR/9.
Other Option: Kyle Higashioka ($2,900), Gary Sanchez ($4,200)
Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves ($4,800) — The Dodgers as a whole struggle with left-handed pitching, but there are exceptions on the team and Muncy is the biggest exception — .401 wOBA, .262 ISO, 156 wRC+, 40% hard contact rate and a 16% K rate. Drew Smyly ($7,900) has struggled with right-handed batters — .338 wOBA, .243 ISO, 44% hard contact rate, 42% fly ball rate and 1.9 HR/9.
Other Option: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($6,200)
Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves ($2,400) — With a loaded roster, it isn’t easy for Pujols to sneak back into the lineup, but he deserves a spot against the lefty — .387 wOBA, .298 ISO, 147 wRC+, 41% hard contact rate and a 14% K rate. The veteran needs reps if the Dodgers are going to use him against left-handed pitching in the playoffs.
Other Option: Luke Voit ($3,300)
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Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners ($6,000) — In 2018 and 2020, Altuve’s power disappeared (.135 and .125 ISO), but it came back in 2017, 2019 and 2021 (.202, .252 and a .202 ISO). On a micro-level, Altuve has experienced that same power roller coaster this season. In April and August, his ISO is south of .100, but in June and July, it was one the the highest in baseball — .302 ISO. Regardless of his power issues — Chris Flexin ($8,200) does not allow a lot of power (.158 ISO) — Altuve is still a consistent hitter against right-handed pitching .368 wOBA with a 15% K rate and Flexin does allow hits (.347 wOBA).
Other Option: Trea Turner ($5,400)
Kolten Wong, Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants ($3,800) — The implied team total for the Brewers is low (4 runs), so a Brewers stack is unlikely, but cheap lefties vs. Cueto does not seem like a bad idea. Wong has a .340 wOBA, .174 ISO, 112 wRC+ and a 35% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: DJ LeMahieu ($)
Editor’s Note: Astros 3B Alex Bregman is not in the starting lineup vs. the Mariners.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners ($5,000) — Since returning form the IL, Bregman has done very little to justify his price tag — four singles and a double are nice, but they’re not winning GPPs. Most DFS players will take a wait-and-see approach and that means opportunistic DFS players will get low ownership on a high upside player. If we look closer at Bregman’s at-bats, we’ll find a 58.3% hard contact rate and a 50% fly ball rate. Forget about the singles, home runs are coming.
Other Option: Justin Turner ($4,700)
Rougned Odor, New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels ($3,100) — Jose Quintana ($5,100) is a starter again and he probably should not be. At times, Quintana is an elite strikeout pitcher, but more often than not, he gets beat around — 4.91 FIP in his last three appearances. Odor has .335 wOBA and a .227 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Other Option: Kyle Seager ($4,000)
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays ($5,800) — The problem with Bogaerts — from the DFS perspective — is that he does not elevate the ball enough. DFS players want home runs not line drives. Bogaerts’ match up against Luis Patino ($7,200) is a great opportunity for Bogaerts to club his 21st home run of the season because Patino is allowing a 52% fly ball rate and 1.6 HR/9 to right-handed batters.
Other Option: Bo Bichette ($5,300)
Nick Maton, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals ($2,800) — On Sunday, Maton returned to the big leagues with Didi Gregorious going on the paternity list. Before getting sent down, Maton was a below average hitter, but that’s not terrible for a rookie middle-infielder. In Triple-A, Maton did not respond well to his demotion and was terrible, so this is a straight punt.
Other Option: Andrew Velazquez ($2,000)
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals ($6,400) — As always, Harper is crushing right-handed pitching this season — .447 wOBA (second), .345 ISO (fourth), 182 wRC+ (second) and a 48% hard contact rate (second). He ranks at the top of every important category against right-handed pitching, so he’s basically the best hitter in baseball this season. On Monday night, he faces a prospect that is learning the ropes the hard way — Josiah Gray ($8,800) has surrendered a .250 ISO, 36% hard contact rate, 57% fly ball rate and 2.5 HR/9 to left-handed batters.
Other Option: Aaron Judge ($5,400)
Jake Meyers, Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners ($2,500) — Since becoming an every day player a couple weeks ago, Meyers has become the player that Houston fans were expecting. In 61 at-bats as a regular, he has a .391 wOBA, .224 ISO and a 155 wRC+. It’s amazing that more people are not talking about him and that his price has not budged this month.
Other Option: Corey Dickerson ($3,000)
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