The last WGC event of the season will take place at TPC Southwind for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. This is the third and final year this tournament will have its WGC classification, as it will be the first stop of the FedExCup playoffs next season.
Brooks Koepka ($10,600), Justin Thomas ($9,900), Dustin Johnson ($10,200), Rory McIlroy ($10,000) and Jon Rahm have all finished inside the top six in DraftKings scoring in one of the previous two years at TPC Southwind. In 2019, four golfers priced above $10K were inside the top seven in DraftKings scoring, with Li Hao Tong’s 13th place finish representing the best performance from a golfer priced below $7K. Both Tom Lewis and Phil Mickelson ($6,600) finished runner-up the following year, and three golfers priced below $7K were inside the top 10 in DraftKings scoring. So, it isn’t easy to pinpoint a roster construction trend this week with only two years of historical WGC data and a field of this strength. This week is also the first year we have seven golfers above $9K who are returning from playing in the Olympics, which should play a factor, as well. Still, WGCs are won by the best in the world, so we should looking at golfers who may be mispriced based on their overall world golfer ranking (OWGR).
Course history, current form or your favorite golf tout has pumped up the projected ownership for individual golfers throughout the week. This article will look at the projected chalk and pivot in each significant salary range when entering lineups in GPPs.
For a full course preview and who I like in the betting market, please refer to DraftKings Preview and the Best Bets articles on DraftKings Playbook. Here are the pivots we should be considering this week on DraftKings.
Projected Popular Golfer: Brooks Koepka ($10,600)
Pivot: Dustin Johnson ($10,200)
Koepka is projected to be the highest-rostered golfer this week, and he deserves it with how well his current form and course history match. If you’ve been reading this article longer than a week, you know how much Johnson is featured, and until he becomes the chalk, he’ll continue to be the pivot. Johnson’s won five WGCs and has two second-place finishes in his career. Over the previous 24 rounds on par 70s, Johnson ranks first in ball-striking and SG: Total.
$8,000 to $10,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Louis Oosthuizen ($9,600)
Pivot: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,500)
Like Brooks, there’s a multitude of reasons to roster Oosthuizen with how well he’s playing. He and Daniel Berger ($9,200) project to be the highest-rostered golfers in this range, and although DeChambeau’s form and tournament history are less than ideal, he should be a consideration in GPPs. He’s still the seventh-ranked golfer in the world, and it probably bothers him more than others that his game isn’t where it was just a few months ago (and that Brooks is one spot higher than him in the OWGR). We can all assume the last couple of weeks away from competition weren’t just rest days for Bryson. He’s failed miserably with his irons the previous two years here, but has been impressive on the greens, gaining 10 strokes last year at TPC Southwind. While that’s unsustainable, his upside isn’t. Like DJ, Bryson’s solid on par 70s ranking sixth in SG: Total over the previous 24 rounds. The inherent risk is his irons are still cold, but it could be worth it at such a low roster percentage projection.
$6,000 to $8,000 Range
Projected Popular Golfer: Harris English ($7,600)
Pivot: Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400)
Both are mispriced this week, but moving some shares to the 14th-ranked golfer, who won back in January, may be the pivot in this range. English is having one of the best seasons of his career, but Hatton’s ball-striking has recently been superior to English’s, ranking 14th over the last 24 rounds to English’s 32nd. English isn’t a fade entirely, but chasing the chalk in the $7K range is always a tough ask with their general volatility.
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