It’s the Final Four of the men’s Olympic basketball tournament and these games are for all the gold, silver and bronze marbles. Team USA is favored by 13 points over France on DraftKings Sportsbook, with an implied total of 93.5. Slovenia is favored by 2.5 points over Australia, with an implied total of 92.5. To ‘HalleLuka’ or not? That is the question every time Luka Doncic ($13,500) is on the slate. He is far and away the most expensive player this evening and he has the highest floor/ceiling combo, but is there enough value and will he constrict lineup construction options? On a small slate, I’m of the opinion that you want the highest raw-point scorers and then you can look to differentiate at the other spots. Let’s see what we can do.
Let’s dive into some of my favorite plays at each position on DraftKings.
Luka Doncic, Slovenia vs. Australia ($13,500) – All Doncic did last game was stuff the stat sheet and post a triple-double, the first in the Olympics since LeBron James accomplished the feat back in 2012. He’s gone for at least 50.0 DKFP in four of his five games with a high of 76.75 DKFP. The only reason he didn’t reach 50.0 DKFP in all five was a blowout that limited him to only 26 minutes. He plays a ton of minutes and garners a massive usage rate. The floor/ceiling combo is unmatched. The price tag is expensive, but take the raw points and figure out the rest of the lineup.
Other Options – Patty Mills ($10,800), Jrue Holiday ($8,500), Nando De Colo ($8,000)
Nathan Sobey, Australia at Slovenia ($3,200) – Sobey played just three combined minutes in his first two games the tournament, but over the last three games, he’s received 12, nine and 11 minutes, respectively. He’s grabbed a few rebounds, dished out some assists and hoisted from beyond the arc. Now, he’s only averaged 3.0 field goal attempts in that span, but he’s put up 8.75 DKFP, 12.0 DKFP and 12.5 DKFP. I know, it’s not eye-popping and doesn’t get you frothing at the mouth, but we need value and Sobey is $200 above the minimum and could provide double-digit DKFP. Plus, Slovenia likes to push the pace, so there could be some more possessions for the Australian side. Ownership will likely be high, so keep that in consideration when constructing lineups.
Other Options – Matthew Dellavedova ($4,300), Thomas Heurtel ($4,700)
Devin Booker, USA at France ($7,200) – For most of the tournament, Evan Fournier ($8,300) has been the class of the shooting guard position because he plays a ton of minutes and garners a high usage rate. He is the offensive guy for France. While he does grab some rebounds and dish out some assists, there are no contributions in the defensive categories, so he relies upon volume and efficiency shooting the ball. He went bonkers in the first game against Team USA with 36.0 DKFP on 11-for-22 shooting. I have a feeling that Team USA will make life more difficult for him in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if Fournier ends up below 30.0 DKFP.
Meanwhile, Booker had a slow start to these Olympics, failing to play even 20 minutes in any of the Americans’ first three contests. Over the past two games, though, the playing time has increased to 26 and 28 minutes, respectively, and he’s put up 34.25 DKFP and 30.25 DKFP. The shooting has been volatile (30% and 70%), but minutes are half the battle. Yo, Joe! He’s shown the capacity to grab rebounds and dish out assists, but it’s been the defensive contributions that have me excited. His on-ball defense has been very good, which could portend for more minutes.
Other Options – Evan Fournier ($8,300), Jaka Blazic ($6,200), Klemen Prepelic ($7,000)
Chris Goulding, Australia at Slovenia ($3,500) – Goulding did not play much in Austrailia’s first three games, but he’s averaging 17.0 minutes in its last two. He’s a three-point shooter, but he’s racked up some steals, grabbed some rebounds and dished out a few assists. He went for 20.5 DKFP against Team USA. We need value, so Goulding is definitely a viable option. Just hope that he gets over 20 minutes of run.
Other Options – Dante Exum ($5,100), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($4,800)
Kevin Durant, USA at France ($10,100) – Durant is the alpha for Team USA. He’s attempted 17 and 19 shots in the last two games, respectively, while playing 31 and 30 minutes. He won’t dish out enough assists to challenge Doncic for triple-double honors, but he grabs rebounds and gets his defense on. The floor is high for Durant as he’s gone for 45.0 DKFP, 44.0 DKFP and 43.75 DKFP in his last three games. It’s tough for me to get away from a Doncic/Durant build, as they will likely be the two highest scoring players on the slate.
Nicolas Batum, France vs. USA ($6,100) – Batum is going to be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate, which, to be honest, is frightening. He’s a low-usage player who has attempted double-digit shots in only one game. That was against Italy, where Batum went for 49.0 DKFP. He shot 5-for-12 from the field, grabbed 14 rebounds, dished out three assists, blocked two shots and racked up three steals. That was likely an outlier game and shouldn’t be expected tonight. That said, he’s played 33 and 38 minutes in the last two games, respectively, and he does contribute across the board. Expectations should be in the 20-DKFP range. I want to fade Batum but here’s the problem: Who’s the pivot? Khris Middleton ($5,600) is the logical guy, but he likely won’t play more than 20 minutes and he’s produced 20.0 DKFP just once this tournament. He also does not have the ability to stuff the stat sheet like Batum. I’ll eat the ownership and look to differentiate elsewhere.
Other Options – Khris Middleton ($5,600)
Draymond Green, USA vs. Australia ($6,800) – It is often debated what the better situation is: Being a big fish in a small pond or a little fish in a big ocean? What if you are the only fish on Earth? That’s Green tonight. There are only four players listed at power forward and he is the only one priced above $4K. Green has played 21, 15, 15, 21 and 18 minutes, respectively, through five games. He’s a low-usage player, but he grabs rebounds, dishes out assists and gets some defensive stats. He has scored double-digit DKFP in four of five games, so there’s that. There’s little probability that he pays off his salary, though, so it’s tough to go here.
Guerschon Yabusele, France vs. USA ($3,800) – Yabusele will likely be in almost every lineup today. The power forward pool only consists of four players and no one in their right mind will pay up for Green. That leaves Yabusele, Duop Reath ($3,600) and Petr Cornelie ($3,000). Both men have barely seen the court in these Olympics. Yabusele played for the Boston Celtics back in 2017 and now plays for Real Madrid in the Liga ACB. He’s scored double-digit DKFP in four of his five games. He’s a low-usage player, but he can stretch the floor and grab rebounds. By process of elimination, he is the only play to be made.
Bam Adebayo, USA at France ($6,400) – The center position is the most interesting for me on this slate, as it could unlock the differentiation needed for a more unique lineup construction. Mike Tobey ($8,900) is a great option as he should feast on the Australian frontcourt. He’s scored at least 30.0 DKFP in four of his five games. Rudy Gobert ($8,400) has gone for 36.25 DKFP and 43 DKFP in his last two games, and finally displayed the rebounding and block prowess that we’ve become accustomed to. He could also feast on an undersized USA squad.
However, I’m going with Adebayo. I know that he’s been terrible and the minutes have come down in each of the last three games. That said, his ownership will likely be in the single digits. Adebayo can rebound, dish out assists and rack up defensive stats. He also has a nice mid-range game. My overall thesis for Adebayo is that his size will be needed against Gobert. On offense, teams have started to double the pick and roll which has put Adebayo in a position to pass or shoot. He’s struggled, but he is a good passer and can knock down the mid-range jumper. Adebayo could access a ceiling game if he’s able to be successful here. In the Americans first contest against France, he went for 34.0 DKFP as he stuffed the stat sheet in 28 minutes. So, it’s within the range of outcomes. Is there risk here? Absolutely, as the trend in playing time hasn’t been a positive one and his confidence could just be shot. No risk it, no biscuit for me, though, as I believe Adebayo is too good of a player and will be needed in this matchup for Team USA to be successful.
Other Options – Mike Tobey ($8,900), Rudy Gobert ($8,400)
Moustapha Fall, France at USA ($3,400) – Most lineups will have Jock Landale ($5,500) and/or Nicholas Kay ($5,900) in them. I’ve rolled with that combo the last few slates. It makes sense because both play a ton of minutes and have produced the DKFP goodies. Ownership is going to be high on both of them, though. I talked about the center position being a place to differentiate and I mentioned Adebayo above. I’m also rolling with Fall. He’s cheap, will be low-owned and he has a chance to score double-digit DKFP. He’s played at least 10 minutes in every game and scored over 10.0 DKFP in three. Fall is 7-foot-2 and 273 pounds so he’s a beast down low. He will grab rebounds and block shots. He’s surprisingly dished out his fair share of assists, as well. In the first contest against Team USA, Fall played 11 minutes, scored seven points and grabbed four rebounds. In short, he was a handful for the undersized USA squad.
Other Options – Jock Landale ($5,500), Nicholas Kay ($5,900)
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