Saturday features a massive 16-game MLB slate. That includes an 11-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET, which is what this piece will focus on.
Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Royals ML (+145)
The Royals stand out as an early sharp target. They’ve received 26% of the moneyline bets in this contest, but those bets have accounted for 36% of the wagers. That has caused the Royals to drop from +160 to +145 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Cardinals will send Kwang Hyun Kim to the mound, and he’s pitched to a 3.31 ERA this season. That said, his advanced metrics are much less impressive. He’s striking out fewer than seven batters per nine innings, but he’s survived thanks to a low BABIP and low HR/FB rate. Add it all up, and his 4.72 xFIP is significantly worse than his traditional ERA.
The Royals will pitch Brad Keller, and he has quietly made some strides recently. He’s posted a 3.78 ERA and 3.89 FIP since the All-Star break, and he’ll have a chance to build on that success vs. the Cardinals. They rank just 22nd in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers, so expect another quality outing from Keller on Saturday.
Under 8.5 runs (+100)
The Nationals and Braves will square off in a battle of old and future aces. The Braves will send Charlie Morton to the mound, who continues to get the job done at 37 years old. He’s pitched to a 3.49 FIP this season, and he’s struck out an average of 10.4 batters per nine innings. Overall, he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his past nine outings.
The Nationals will turn to Josiah Gray, who was one of the key pieces in the deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers. He entered the year as the No. 20 prospect in baseball per FanGraphs, and he has absolutely dominated in the minors. He had a strong debut in his first start with the Nationals, allowing just one run over five innings vs. the Phillies. Everything points to this guy being a star in the majors, so I like his chances of keeping the Braves’ offense at bay.
This line has already dropped from 9.0 to 8.5, but I still think there’s value with the under.
Marlins ML (+145)
I am an unapologetic Jesús Luzardo stan. There’s no doubt that he’s struggled this season – he’s pitched to a 6.70 ERA over 43 innings with the Athletics and Marlins – but his stuff is excellent. He was dominant out of the A’s bullpen in 2019, pitching to a 1.50 ERA, and he was ranked the No. 5 prospect in baseball heading into 2020. Maybe he’ll be better served as a reliever than a starter in the majors, but I’m not ready to give up on him yet.
I’m certainly willing to roll the dice on him as an underdog against Austin Gomber. The Colorado lefty has been solid this year, but he’s not someone that opposing offenses should fear. Neither of these offenses are particularly impressive against left-handed pitchers, but I’ll back the raw talent of Luzardo in this matchup.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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