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Everyone in Chicago can’t be a winner. This year, the White Sox get the praise and the Cubs get the pat on the back. On Sunday night, the White Sox will roll out a potent lineup that includes a star pitcher. The Cubs will put some names on a piece of paper, send some guys onto the field and wait for the days to click away.
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Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Captain’s Picks
Dylan Cease ($17,100 CP) — This is pretty simple. The Cubs have a borderline minor league lineup and Dylan Cease is a top tier pitcher. Before the Cubs traded away Bryant, Rizzo and Báez, their offense was terrible — now, it’s only worse. Against right-handed pitching this season, the Cubs have an 87 wRC+, .300 wOBA, .166 ISO and a 26% strikeout rate. It’s worth repeating that those numbers were with their studs. Over the last week, the Cubs have a 71 wRC+, .275 wOBA, .131 ISO and lead the league in strikeouts at 30.8%. Dylan Cease has a 30% K rate, 15% SwStr% and a 69% contact rate. This isn’t rocket science — this offense swings and misses a lot and the pitcher is an elite swing and miss pitcher — end of story.
Eloy Jiménez ($12,600 CP) — The results against Zach Davies have been slightly better for left-handed batters (5.99 xFIP, .344 WOBA and a .181 ISO vs. LHB; 4.65 xFIP, .341 wOBA and a .143 ISO vs. RHB) because Davies generates slightly more ground balls against right-handed batters and significantly fewer fly balls (27% vs. 39%). The best bats for the White Sox are right-handed, but a ground ball rate is not enough of a reason to completely fade the studs. Jiménez hasn’t been understandably rusty since retuning from the IL on July 26, but this weekend he seems to have found his groove. He’s riding a modest three-game hit streak with a double in each game. Among the big boppers for the White Sox, Jiménez is the cheapest, but he also has the lowest launch angle (2.4-degrees). However, that is over a small sample size and the other White Sox power hitters’ launch angles aren’t much better in a full season of action. The only Chicago hitter that consistently puts the ball in the air is Brian Goodwin (18.4-degrees), and he’ll be mentioned next.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $175K Sunday Night Showdown [$50K to 1st] (CWS vs CHC)
Value Plays
Editor’s Note: White Sox OF Brian Goodwin is not in the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Cubs.
Brian Goodwin ($5,600) — His price is incredibly low for a solid hitter that’s been playing well, but there is one drawback — this game is at an NL park and the White Sox outfield is crowded sans DH. If Goodwin starts, and he should, then he’ll be very popular at this price. Zach Davies has a 5.99 xFIP against left-handed batters with a .344 wOBA and a .181 ISO. Those numbers could be worse, but he’s been decent at generating ground balls (41%) and his horrendous walk rate (15%) has likely suppressed his wOBA and ISO because walks are preferable to extra base hits. Goodwin has hit in six of the last seven games with three home runs and six runs over that span. In 107 at-bats against right-handed pitching, the lefty has a .402 wOBA, .290 ISO, 160 wRC+ and a 39% hard contact rate.
Rafael Ortega ($5,400) — The rules state that DFS players must select at least one player from each team. It’s tempting to suggest a bullpen arm, but that’s too cute. Ortega is the Cubs leadoff hitter, so he’s going to have the most opportunities to score DKFP. Since the Cubs traded away their team last week, Ortega has become a regular and he has produced. Ortega has hit in six of seven games with 11 hits (four home runs), while scoring eight times and knocking in eight runs. Since the All Star break, Ortega has a .486 wOBA, .284 ISO and a 194 wRC+. As a lefty, his damage has almost exclusively been against right-handed pitching this season — .379 wOBA, .206 ISO and a 138 wRC+.
Fades
Zach Davies ($15,000 CP; $10,000) — In previous Sunday night showdown slates, Davies outperformed expectations. For some mysterious reason, offenses go to sleep in these games and bad pitchers look like aces. Davies has a path to success — he is a ground ball pitcher and the White Sox hit more ground balls than any other team (47.1%). That’s about his only chance because the White Sox are also the third-best offense in baseball (108 wRC+). It’s one thing to have weak advanced metrics, but it is really bad if a pitcher’s traditional numbers stink — 4.79 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9. There are two scenarios, the White Sox lackadaisically ground out all night or they destroy Davies.
The Outcome
The White Sox have their eyes on the playoffs and the Cubs are looking to next year. Tony LaRussa will not let his squad take it easy and allow Zach Davies to wiggle out of trouble with ground balls. The White Sox have explosive bats and they’re going to make their contact against Davies count.
Final Score: White Sox 5, Cubs 1
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