It’s Sunday, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon and so many valuable lines out there that it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I would say I’m surprised to see the line on this game so tight, but the public and oddsmakers alike really love Yusei Kikuchi. The lefty was an All-Star this year, after all, and the owner of a shiny 3.89 ERA. He has also struck out a tidy 26.3% of the batters he’s faced, and has a cutter that can make even the best in the game look like amateurs.
That’s all well and good, but he’s in for a tough challenge with the way this Yankees team has been hitting. His 44.1% hard-hit rate isn’t going to play very well in Yankee Stadium, nor is the fact that this team is on another level right now and has risen to second in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Luis Gil is also on the hill for the Yankees, which should mean only good things. His first start against the Orioles was a dandy, and his 96-mph fastball was on another level. Seattle is currently 28th in weighted runs per 100 fastballs, and has lacked hard contact over the last two weeks, making this a very lethal combination and a tough test for the M’s. I don’t see this as a fair line.
What in the world has gotten into this Tigers team? They’re currently tearing the cover off the ball and winning games left and right, ranking fifth in the league in hard-hit balls over the last two weeks. Now comes a date with Zach Plesac, whose middle name is actually “Hard-hit.”
Plesac’s peripherals are pretty bad; 41% of the balls that have come back in play have traveled at 95 mph or more, and his strikeout rate is in the gutter at 14.8%. He’s coming off of a six-run outing against Toronto, and his 4.40 xERA doesn’t really inspire much confidence.
The Tigers will counter with a similar arm in Wily Peralta, whose indicators look similar to Plesac’s, but the difference here may very well be Peralta’s ability to consistently pitch under pressure and get results and Cleveland’s inability to make quality contact. This could turn into a slugfest, but if I have to pick one offense here, it’s absolutely going to be Detroit’s.
There was a time this year where the Diamondbacks were one of the very best teams in the league against left-handed pitching, but injuries would soon wreak havoc on their offense and that number slowly drifted close to the mean. As it stands today, Arizona sports a 99 wRC+ against southpaws, which isn’t particularly bad, just average.
That’s a plus when you’re talking about one of the worst teams in baseball. This team has some real boppers from the right side, and they’ve proved a thorn in the side of the Padres already this weekend and will go for their first road series win since late April. I believe there’s a good chance Arizona gets it.
Not only do I believe in the right-handed bats, I don’t believe in Blake Snell. The lefty has been every bit as bad as his 5.24 ERA would indicate, and possibly worse, with a cratering walk rate, a high number of hard-hit balls and a strikeout rate that’s also been on the decline. You can run into trouble with Snell if you’re a high-strikeout team, but the Diamondbacks’ 77.8% contact rate over the last two weeks gives me faith here.
With the offense getting on the board, Madison Bumgarner should settle in against a team that’s also rocking a 99 wRC+ against lefties, which looks worse on them. Not only is Fernando Tatis, Jr. on the shelf, that’s just not the same production slumping San Diego sees against righties.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.