Monday is very small slate that starts early, locking at nearly an hour earlier than usual at 6:10 p.m. ET. But you know what, money still needs to be made. Let’s do it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Joe Musgrove, $8,500, San Diego Padres (-250) vs. Miami Marlins (+200) — The biggest favorite on the slate is also involved in the lowest projected total. Musgrove is taking on the Marlins for the second time this season, tossing six innings while allowing two runs on six hits and striking out for, good for 17.3 DKFP. This start happened a couple of weeks ago, which is in the midst of a nice run for the Padres starter. Over his last five starts, he’s allowed a total of eight runs while averaging 18.2 DKFP. Going against one of the worst offenses in the league against righties, this feels like quite the spot to continue that trend.
Entering this game, the Marlins sport just a .286 wOBA, a .130 ISO and an 81 wRC+ against righties. As you can imagine, these numbers are some of the worst in the league. They aren’t shy to strikeout either, posting a 24.7% K%. I doubt you’re chomping at the bit to throw money down on a -250 favorite, especially when the Padres are 11-11 in starts that Musgrove makes. Even with the nice stretch he’s been on over the past five games, the Padres are only 2-3 in those games. They simply haven’t been giving him the run support he’s needed. I do like them tonight, however and could be a nice piece to include in a Same Game Parlay.
BREAKING NEWS: Same Game Parlays are now available! pic.twitter.com/dUg1dJ5pK8— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) August 5, 2021
Highest Projected Total
New York Yankees (-170; 5.5 runs) at Kansas City Royals (+150; 4.5 runs) 10 runs — The highest projected total is located at Kauffman Stadium, where games at this stadium have gone 26-25-2 on the over. That said, neither team have been entirely strong at hitting the over, with the Royals doing so only 47.5% of the time and the Yankees as one of the worst at 42.2%.
I think the under is in play for this game tonight. The Yankees are the clear favorites in this one with a team total of 5.5 runs against Carlos Hernandez ($6,200), who is making his 19th appearance and fifth start overall. He has good stuff to generate strikeouts but his command has been a big issues, leading to a 5.4 BB/9 on the season. When Hernandez has started, which is only a span of 17 2/3 innings this season, he has a 4.6 BB/9 to go with a 4.30 FIP. He has nearly equal numbers against both sides of the plate, making this a good spot for this Yankees lineup. I have no problem stacking them, as they are one of the few appealing teams on this small slate. While the Royals bullpen has been better as of late, they’ve been extremely inconsistent over the course of the season. I think the play is taking the under on the game total, especially with how well Jameson Taillon ($7,800) since the beginning of July. Seeing at least 10 runs in this game feels like a bit of a stretch.
Splits to Start
Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters
Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Alec Mills, .378, 5,35
Jameson Taillon, .334, 5.47
Luis Castillo, .330, 4.15
Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .241, 3.75
Lucas Giolito, .276, 3.12
Carlos Hernandez, .287, 4.05
Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters
Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Sam Hentges, .432, 5.31
Carlos Hernandez, .334, 4.02
Lucas Giolito, .333, 5.00
Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .217, 2.17
Joe Musgrove, .234, 3.15
Zach Thompson, .243, 3.25
Pitcher to Build Around
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians, $10,000 — I really wanted to write up Peralta but the weather has me concerned, so I won’t waste your time. Castillo has no weather to worry about and is in a good matchup against the Indians. This team will provide plenty of strikeout upside with a team 24% K% against righties, which is just outside the top-10 in the league. Overall against them, they have a .305 wOBA, a .167 ISO and a 92 wRC+. Castillo has put behind his horrific first-half of the season and most recently ended the month of July with a 3.54 FIP, a 26.8% K% and just a 0.72 HR/9.
Stud Hitter to Pay For
Jonathan India, Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians, $4,800 — Your future NL Rookie of the Year (+105) has been red hot at the plate and there is no reason to believe that won’t continue tonight. The Reds’ leadoff hitter is averaging 13.7 DKFP over his last 10 games with nine of his 14 hits going for extra bases. In that span, he has five home runs, four doubles and nine RBI. He’ll be taking on Sam Hentges ($7,100), who has been rocked when he takes the mound as a starter. India comes into this game with a .414 wOBA, a .138 ISO and a 157 wRC+ against lefties. While that ISO looks low, which it is, since the beginning of July, India sees that number jump to .222.
Save Big by Drafting
Ryan O’Hearn, Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees, $2,300 — O’Hearn is a dirt cheap option to consider if you need to save some salary. While Taillon has been great since the beginning of July, his numbers against lefties continue to be his biggest blemish. He comes into this game posting a .334 wOBA and a 5.47 FIP against them. Lefties have also accounted for 10 of the 17 total home runs he’s allowed, giving him a 1.97 HR/9. O’Hearn has seen himself bumped up to the cleanup spot in the order as of late and could find himself there once again. That’s a potential steal at just $2,300.
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