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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 10

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

It’s a big day in the fantasy baseball world! Not only do we have a 13-game slate but the DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship is taking place in Philadelphia! I’ll be on all of the DraftKings social media channels giving updates all throughout the evening! So make sure to check that out and of course, let’s win some money in the process.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24

DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Robbie Ray, $10,700, Toronto Blue Jays (-240) at Baltimore Orioles (+195) — My guy, Robbie Ray, looking to take the lead in the American League Cy Young race on DraftKings Sportsbook. With the hamstring injury to Gerrit Cole, he’s currently at -105 to win the Cy Young, while Ray sits at +140. A big performance tonight should bring Ray even closer to being the favorite. Luckily for him, he’ll be taking on the Orioles at Camden Yards.

This will be the third time Ray will see the Orioles this season. In two prior starts, he’s gone a combined 11 13 innings allowing four runs on 10 hits with 15 strikeouts, good for an average of 21.9 DKFP. His 3.60 FIP lines up very well with his 3.18 ERA while his 11.9 K/9 is where he’s been at all season long. The concern here is that the Orioles are a much better hitting club against lefties than they are righties. They currently rank fourth in the league in runs scored against lefties, trailing some really good offenses like the Astros, Red Sox and Rays. They currently rank fourth in the league in runs scored against lefties, trailing some really good offenses like the Astros, Red Sox and Rays.

Highest Projected Total

Toronto Blue Jays (-240; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+195; 3.5 runs) 10 runs — This game also features the highest projected game total of the slate at 10 runs. The Blue Jays have been one of the worst teams at hitting the over on the game total, doing so in just 44.8% of the game. The Orioles have been better but a lot of it has to do with how much offense they ALLOW. The Orioles have seen the over hit in 52.2% of their games.

The most noticeable total you’ll notice is the Blue Jays projected at 5.5 runs. That is tied for the highest run total on this slate along with the Rays and the Brewers. This offense is absolutely on fire right now and have scored the most runs in the league during the month of September with 59. For reference, the Mets are in second place (what!?) with 52. This team has snapped off eight wins in a row and have actually moved within a half game out of the second Wild Card spot, which is currently occupied by the Yankees.

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Griffix Jax, .361, 6.50
Eli Morgan, .326, 4.96
Shohei Ohtani, .317, 4.87

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Rodon, .281, 1.53
Trevor Rogers, .309, 2.50
Tyler Mahle, .249, 2.56

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Griffin Jax, .367, 6.71
Marco Gonzales, .319, 5.95
Jon Lester, .385, 5.86

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Tanner Houck, .271, 1.95
Shohei Ohtani, .226, 2.04
Joe Musgrove, .225, 2.80

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, $9,300 — The Padres offense continues to stumble and now they have to face a pitcher who recently shut them out through five innings. Urias has been really for the better part of the last two months. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since July 17th against the Rockies. Since that start, he’s thrown 44 1/3 innings and has a 2.51 FIP, a 9.3 K/9, only a 1.6 BB/9 and a 0.6 HR/9. With this Padres offense in a complete tailspin and lacking any real power against lefties (.149 team ISO), I think this is a great spot to take Urias.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Editor’s Note: Tigers SP Tyler Alexander will start tonight’s game vs. the Rays.

Nelson Cruz, Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, $5,100 — Earlier this season, we really thought that Matthew Boyd ($5,600) was turning a corner. As the season went on and injuries plagued him, it’s apparent that 2021 will not be the breakout season for Boyd. He’s only made a couple of starts since returning but quickly was tagged for seven runs on 11 hits and three home runs through eight innings. Now he has a daunting matchup against the Rays and specifically Cruz, who should be in the conversation with Tom Brady for defying age. Against lefties, Cruz boasts a .389 wOBA, a .227 ISO and a 150 wRC+.

Save Big by Drafting

Rowdy Tellez, Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians, $2,000 — I’m thinking Tellez will get the start at first base tonight since Dan Vogelbach ($2,000) started the other day. Either way, both hitters are a very easy way to get some exposure to one of the highest projected scoring teams on the slate against Eli Morgan ($7,100). Against lefties, Morgan has some of the worst numbers amongst starting pitchers with a .326 wOBA and a 4.96 FIP. Tellez doesn’t have great numbers but a .173 ISO at the bare minimum against a right-handed pitcher will do the trick.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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