It’s Week 1 in the NFL, and I’m back again this year to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to buy into two of my favorite comeback narratives right off the bat and put my money where my mouth is when it comes to the Jaguars’ slow rise up the ranks on offense. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
One of the rare redeeming qualities of following the Jets so closely — and talking about the team with people close to it — is getting to know what the lineup is going to look like on a weekly basis so I can attack it from a props perspective. I’ve heard that this backfield will belong to Tevin Coleman, the elder statesman of the running back room, for at least the beginning of the year as the team develops some of its younger talent. While the coaching staff is high on Ty Johnson, and the team spent good draft capital on Michael Carter, Coleman should be the guy against Carolina. That’s great for him, because the Panthers have a bad defense.
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I don’t care if you are a generational talent, Tom Brady’s son or the savior of the universe, if you are starting your career under center in the NFL, chances are you’re not going to be throwing a whole lot. I don’t think Urban Meyer’s game plan will call for Trevor Lawrence throwing the ball 50 times, and that’s where Robinson should come in. He should see a heavy dose of the football as the Jaguars try to work Lawrence into the mix, and it doesn’t hurt that Robinson’s incredibly talented and going up against one of the worst defenses in the league. You’ve also got the added bonus of the Jaguars being the favorites here, and I think we could see a lot of running in the last quarter or two of this one.
I’m taking all the overs on Kyler Murray this season, and week-to-week until oddsmakers adjust. Why? Well, Murray was sensational throwing the football before sustaining a shoulder injury in the middle of last season — which he was able to play through — but due to the fact that he never sat out, the consensus seems to be that the guy we saw down the stretch is the real Kyler Murray.
I think Murray reminds us all just how good he is at throwing the football against one of the five worst defenses from a year ago, and hits over 263 yards — which he did in five of his first eight games last year.
Oh yeah, baby. It’s time to buy low on Carson Wentz. Let’s remember that he gets to face the team which ranked 30th in passing yards allowed per game in 2020, and one that didn’t do a whole lot to shore up its secondary, losing Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar and replacing them with... Pierre Desir?
It’s going to be difficult for the Seahawks to stop the pass once again, and with better receivers, a great offensive line and Frank Reich, I expect big things from Wentz this year. This line is somewhat disrespectful.
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