Saturday features an eight-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins ($8,000) — Since Aug. 1, the Marlins have an 81 wRC+, .284 wOBA and .130 ISO against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton has a 29% K rate and a 49% ground ball rate. These two tools make him a particularly effective pitcher in an Atlanta park that can play small in the summer. Morton still has home run issues at home and the Marlins have more power on the road, but that power is negligible — an increase in ISO from .128 to .146. Morton and the Braves are large favorites on Saturday night, so Morton should not have any trouble retiring Marlins.
Other Option: Luis Castillo ($9,000)
Michael Pineda, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals ($5,400) — In his last outing — a long relief appearance — Pineda tossed three scoreless innings allowing two hits while striking out three batters and earned the win against the Indians. He’s far from fixed, but he will draw a favorable matchup against the Royals — 84 wRC+, .295 wOBA and a .143 ISO against right-handed pitching. Pineda’s biggest problem is the long ball, but only two Kansas City hitters have an above average ISO against right-handed pitching since Aug. 1 — Salvador Perez ($5,500) and Andrew Benintendi ($2,900).
Other Option: Connor Saebold ($4,000)
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins ($5,500) — There is a reason why Michael Pineda ($5,400) is a value pitcher. Other than the anomaly that was 2020, Pineda’s career has been tarnished by his propensity to allow home runs. His 1.3 HR/9, 36% fly ball rate and 36% hard contact rate to right-handed batters is not terrible, but it’s not good. Salvador Perez doesn’t need any help (42 home runs), but he’ll take it as he chases down the single season home run record for a catcher set by Johnny Bench 51 years ago.
Other Option: Yasmani Grandal ($5,200)
Tucker Barnhart, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals ($2,600) — The over/under for every game on Saturday is 8 or 9 runs. It’s almost as if the oddsmakers phoned it today and are focusing on College Football and the NFL. The Reds should score more than four runs against Miles Mikolas ($6,900) and the second-worst bullpen in baseball (4.72 xFIP).
Other Option: Tom Murphy ($3,100)
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins ($5,400) — Against right-handed pitching, Freeman has a .393 wOBA, .225 ISO and a 145 wRC+. Elieser Hernandez ($7,000) has struggled against left-handed batters across 17 innings — .361 wOBA, .367 ISO and 3.6 HR/9 — and Freddie Freeman is not just another lefty.
Other Option: José Abreu ($4,500)
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals ($4,200) — DraftKings is not familiar with the meme: Votto Still Bangs. If they were, he wouldn’t be this cheap. He should not be this cheap based on his splits, either — .425 wOBA, .343 ISO and a 165 wRC+ vs. RHP — or his current form — home runs in his last two games.
Other Option: Bobby Dalbec ($3,400)
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Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals ($5,700) — DraftKings overlooked Polanco for months, but finally he was discovered and his price deservedly shot through the roof. Against right-handed pitching, Polanco has a .361 wOBA, .230 ISO and 130 wRC+. Brady Singer ($6,000) has been below average against left-handed batters (.334 wOBA).
Other Option: Jose Altuve ($5,400)
Max Schrock, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals ($2,000) — Kyle Farmer is on the paternity list, but it’s not certain that Max Schrock will be in the starting lineup. For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive. If Schrock plays, he has a .392 wOBA, .200 ISO and 143 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Jonathan India ($3,900)
Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,200) — Arizona has the worst bullpen in baseball (4.95 xFIP) and Humberto Castellanos ($5,500) has struggled in 13 innings against left-handed batters — .354 wOBA, .239 ISO, 40% hard contact rate, 46% fly ball rate and 1.4 HR/9. Seager has a .244 ISO and 41% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Austin Riley ($5,800)
Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals ($4,200) — Brady Singer has been a decent pitcher against lefties, but his 4.48 xFIP is weak and his 54% strand rate is terrible. For whatever reason, Singer struggles with lefties with runners on base. A mini stack with Arraez and Polanco at the top of the Twins lineup could be sneaky on Saturday night. Arraez has a .344 wOBA, 118 wRC+ and 8% K rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Jonathan Villar ($4,400)
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox ($5,100) — LAZER Bogaerts hits too many line drives. Baseball managers love him, but DFS players aren’t impressed — they need home runs. Dylan Cease ($9,600) allows a 47% fly ball rate to right-handed batters and Statcast ranks Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago as the third-best home run-friendly park.
Other Option: Carlos Correa ($5,200)
Jose Barrero, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals ($2,000) — If the lefty Schrock does not play, then Barrero will likely start. On Friday, Barreo started and went 2-for-4 with a run scored and an RBI. Jose Barrero is not just another September call-up. He’s a top prospect — No. 5 in the organization — that received a $5 million contract out of Cuba. He had a .419 wOBA, .288 ISO and 158 wRC+ in Triple-A. He should be the most popular play on the slate.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Barrero and Schrock are both in the lineup for today’s game vs. the Cardinals.
Other Option: Nicky Lopez ($3,100)
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers ($6,000) — Did you know that Dodger Stadium is the second-best park for home runs this season? Did you know Walker Buehler ($9,400) allows a 41% fly ball rate and 35% hard contact rate to right-handed batters? This seems like a good spot to play Tatis with his .360 ISO and 50% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Byron Buxton ($5,700)
Tyler Naquin, Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals ($2,800) — Against right-handed pitching, Naquin has a .362 wOBA, .233 ISO, 124 wRC+ and 40% hard contact rate. Miles Mikolas is allowing a .371 wOBA, 37% hard contact rate, 40% fly ball rate and 16% K rate to left-handed batters.
Other Option: Andrew Benintendi ($2,900), Jake Meyers ($3,100)
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