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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Padres vs. Dodgers Showdown on September 11

Zach Thompson gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Padres and Dodgers, which starts at 9:10 p.m. ET.

Atlanta Braves v Los Angeles Dodgers Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images

This week’s Saturday night Showdown contest on DraftKings is the second game of an NL West series which is also a potential Wild Card game preview. The Los Angeles Dodgers would host the San Diego Padres if the season ended today, but the Padres are only percentage points ahead of the Cincinnati Reds while there are three other teams within five games of that second Wild Card spot as well. San Diego will try to hold onto that playoff spot coming down the stretch while the Dodgers are 14 games ahead of them for the first Wild Card spot but are still fighting for the division title, trailing the San Francisco Giants by 2 12 games coming into Saturday’s action.

On Friday night, the Dodgers took the first game of the series, 3-0, as Julio Urías outdueled Joe Musgrove thanks to a two-run home run from Max Muncy ($14,100 CP; $9,400). They’ll look to get more outstanding pitching when they give the ball to Walker Buehler ($16,200; $10,800) on Friday, and the Padres will counter with Chris Paddack ($14,400; $9,600). Buehler is an impressive 13-3 with a 2.31 ERA and 3.18 FIP on the season. Paddack’s numbers aren’t nearly as good, but he has had a few better results since returning from the injured list. On the year, he is 7-6 with a 4.95 ERA and 3.81 FIP. In part due to the starting pitching mismatch, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Dodgers favored at -210 on the Moneyline while the over/under is set at 8.0 runs in what is expected to be a well-pitched contest.

Which players are specifically set up for success in this matchup? Let’s take a look at how to construct your DraftKings lineups for Saturday night’s Showdown contest.


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Captain’s Picks

Walker Buehler ($16,200 CP) - Buehler is looking to bounce back from his worst start of the season, which came against the Giants in his most recent outing. He allowed six runs in just three innings but still leads the Majors with his 2.31 ERA and has only had two starts all season in which he has failed to pitch at least six innings. In his 10 previous starts, he went 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA, striking out 76 in 67 23 over that span. The rough start seems to be an outlier and doesn’t seem to be the result of any recent trend. Despite a dip in strikeout numbers, his run suppression numbers are outstanding, and he can establish multiple career-bests if he can finish the season strong.

In three previous starts against the Padres, Buehler has held the Friars to 14 hits and four earned runs over 19 23 innings with 21 strikeouts and a 1.83 ERA. He had 28.6 DKFP against San Diego in late August and should be set up for a bounce-back outing at Dodger Stadium.

Corey Seager ($12,300 CP) - Seager has been hitting cleanup in the power-packed Dodgers’ batting order and has a .284 average on the season with eight home runs and 41 RBI in 75 games. He missed over two months with a fractured right hand, and since returning, he has a .188 ISO, .380 wOBA and a 143 wRC+ over 38 games. He seems to be finding his stride lately, going 12-for-31 (.387) over his past 10 starts with two home runs and a 59.3% hard-hit rate. He has also gone 4-for-8 with two doubles and a home run against Paddack in their previous meetings.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $5K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)


Value Plays

Trent Grisham ($7,600) - The Padres’ outfield has been crowded with Fernando Tatis ($10,600) taking a spot to reduce wear-and-tear on his shoulder. Grisham still typically starts against right-handed pitchers, though, and is one of the few Padres with any positive history against Buehler. Grisham has hit a pair of home runs against the Dodgers’ ace while going 4-for-11. He has hit leadoff in five of his past six starts and will be a nice value Padres play if he is in that premium lineup spot once again.

Matt Beaty ($4,400) - The Dodgers’ lineup is laden with superstars who are productive but also highly-priced, so whoever starts in LF is one of the few value options in their order. Beaty could get the call against Paddack after being recalled earlier this week from Triple-A where he hit .357 with three doubles, five runs and four RBI in nine games after being sent down in late August. Chris Taylor ($7,200) and Cody Bellinger ($6,800) have been struggling at the plate, so Beaty could get more playing time with AJ Pollock (hamstring) and Billy McKinney (hip) on the injured list. Beaty has hit .262 with a .328 wOBA in his 105 games in the Majors this season and is 3-for-5 with two doubles in his career against Paddack.


Fades

Chris Paddack ($9,600) - Paddack is in a brutal matchup against the stacked Dodgers lineup and didn’t get a single strikeout in his most recent start, giving up six hits and three runs over six innings to the Astros. His 4.95 ERA on the season has improved in each of his two starts since coming off the IL, but he has been giving up hard contact, including four barrels in his most recent start and a 47.2% hard-hit rate over his 36 batted balls in those two outings. The Padres’ hitters have a tough matchup, too, but Paddack is especially someone I’m avoiding since he hasn’t hit 20 DKFP in any start since June 18.


The Outcome

The Dodgers definitely have the advantage on paper in this matchup with Buehler on the mound. As long as he returns to form, the Dodgers should be able to get another win in this rivalry series and grow their lead in the Wild Card race while keeping pressure on the Giants. For the Padres, Paddack has just not progressed as it was originally hoped when he was called up, and even his better results have been helped by getting hard-hit balls right at fielders. For showdown purposes, building around Buehler or one of the Dodgers’ star bats like Seager makes sense while finding a Padres bat or two to mix in with whatever value Dodger gets the start in LF.

Final Score: Dodgers 7, Padres 1

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $5K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (SD vs LAD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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