The MLB regular season is winding down, but we’ve got 16 games to choose from on Saturday. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Reds ML (-115)
This game is very important for both of these squads. The Reds are currently tied with the Padres for the second Wild Card spot in the National League, while the Cardinals are three games back.
The Reds will turn to Luis Castillo, and he’s been significantly better after the All-Star break. He’s pitched to a 3.43 ERA and a 3.15 xFIP over the second half of the year, and he allowed just one earned run over six innings in his last outing. The Cardinals rank just 21st in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, so he should be able to continue his success in this matchup.
On the other side, the Cardinals will send Miles Mikolas to the mound, and the Reds have been much more imposing than the Cards against right-handed pitchers. They rank seventh in wRC+, and Mikolas has struggled to a 5.06 ERA and 4.82 xFIP this season.
Royals ML (+125)
The Royals are shaping up to be a preferred target for the sharps tonight. They’ve received 49% of the moneyline bets in this contest, but those bets have accounted for 90% of the dollars. That’s a massive discrepancy, which usually indicates professional interest.
The Royals will give the ball to Brady Singer, who has some solid metrics this season. He owns a 3.68 FIP this season, including a 3.26 FIP since the All-Star break. The Twins’ offense has not been their problem this season – they’re 10th in wRC+ vs. right-handers – but Singer should be able to limit the damage.
The Royals are taking on Michael Pineda, who has been a significantly worse pitcher at home this season. His FIP jumps to 4.64 in Minnesota, thanks mostly to an average of 1.91 homers per nine innings. The Royals’ offense isn’t great, but they have scored at least six runs in three straight games. I’ll roll the dice with them as slight underdogs.
Nationals ML (-135)
This matchup features a showdown between young pitchers in Josiah Gray and Wil Crowe. That said, these pitchers have wildly different outlooks moving forward.
Crowe is a borderline major leaguer. He entered the season as the No. 30 prospect in the Pirates’ organization, and he’s struggled mightily in his first full year. He’s pitched to a 5.94 ERA and a 6.08 FIP, and he’s struggled with both walks and homers.
Gray has the potential to be a future ace. His numbers haven’t been impressive in his first taste of major-league action, but he entered the year as the No. 18 prospect in all of baseball. He dominated at the Double-A and Triple-A levels this year, and it feels like it’s just a matter of time before he figures it out in the majors.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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