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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 13

Steve Buchanan breaks down Monday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

New York Mets v Miami Marlins Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images

Mondayyyyyyy brings us a seven-game slate beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. We’re going to chat extensively, ALL ABOUT IT. So let’s jump into it.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Clayton Kershaw, $10,400, Los Angeles Dodgers (-300) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+235) — Kershaw is expected to rejoin the rotation after being sidelined since early July with a forearm issue. He only made one rehab start that saw him throw 49 pitches in Triple-A. Kershaw allowed two runs on four hits and three strikeouts in the outing to the Rockies affiliate. With that in mind, Kershaw is likely to only go a handful of innings at most. Banking on Kershaw to go more than four innings would likely be a stretch, so he ends up being a no-go for me in DFS. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the slate by $800 over Sandy Alcantara ($9,600). There is absolutely zero chance he goes 3x his salary, which makes him one of the easiest fades of the slate. While I do believe the Dodgers will win this game, I’m not huge on taking them at -300 on what can really be considered a bullpen game.

Highest Projected Total

Tampa Bay Rays (+110; 4.5 runs) at Toronto Blue Jays (-130; 4.5 runs) 9.5 runs — This slate (as of this morning) doesn’t feature a game total in double-digits. The highest projected total on the slate is currently at 9.5, which belongs to the Rays taking on the red hot Blue Jays. The Rays are the second best team in the league in hitting the over, doing so 57.7% of the time. That marks only trails the Twins at 58.1%. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, remain one of the worst in the league, despite putting up some serious crooked numbers lately. The Blue Jays have hit the over only 46% of the time, which finds them near the bottom of the league.

It’s hard to not like the over on the Blue Jays team total of 4.5. They just scored a total of 44 runs in a three game series against the Orioles. 44. That is more than SEVEN teams have scored through the entire month of September, which is absolutely asinine. The Rays are a much better pitching staff than the Orioles (isn’t every team?) so that type of production can’t be expected. That being said, the Blue Jays have scored a total of 106 runs in the month of September, which is 30 more than the Mets, who are in second. That being said, the Blue Jays are averaging over four runs per game against this team but the over on the game total is just 4-8 when they play each other. I would be siding with the Blue Jays to go over the team total of 4.5 runs rather than taking the over on this game total. Jays starter Alek Manoah ($8,500) is much tougher on righties than he is lefties, which the Rays are a very right-handed heavy team.

Weather Notes

No weather concerns!

Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Alek Manoah, .344, 5.03
Sandy Alcantara, .301, 4.28
Jake Odorizzi, .322, 4.23

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Clayton Kershaw, .178, 2.09
Nathan Eovaldi, .276, 2.35
Drew Rasmussen, .267, 2.38

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Paolo Espino, .327, 5.64
Zac Gallen, .315, 5.33
Jake Odorizzi, .307, 4.98

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Sandy Alcantara, .262, 2.71
Adam Wainwright, .249, 3.29
Nathan Eovaldi, .314, 3.31

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, $9,600 — I’m not really sure what has gotten into Alcantara but I’m here for it. Before the calendar turned to August, Alcantara had one game under his belt with double-digit strikeouts. That’s a span of 21 starts. Since August, where he’s pitched eight games since, he’s logged at LEAST 10 strikeouts in four of them. Over that span he boasts an 11.1 K/9, which is quite the jump from his season average which currently sits at 8.8. This is only the second time he’s faced the Nationals this season but he also saw them before they overhauled their roster. Simply going off his numbers since the beginning of August is good enough for me, as he owns a 3.05 FIP, a .275 wOBA and just a 1.1 HR/9.

Stud Hitter to Pay For

Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays $4,500 — One of the biggest issues for Manoah this season for the Blue Jays has been left-handed hitters. He won’t see many when he faces the Rays but one of the ones he will see is Meadows. Against lefties, Manoah has a 5.03 FIP, a .344 wOBA and a 1.8 HR/9. Those are some of the worst numbers amongst the starters on the slate against lefties. Meadows has been smashing right-handed pitching and currently sports a .366 wOBA, a .290 ISO and a 138 wRC+.

Save Big by Drafting

Michael Conforto, New York Mets vs. St. Louis Cardinals, $3,400 — For someone that has been hitting the ball as well as they have, I was surprised to see Conforto at only $3,400. He’s been hovering in this low $3K range for quite awhile but he’s also averaged 8.4 DKFP in the month of September to go with a .365 wOBA, a .239 ISO and a 134 wRC+. He has a fairly tough matchup against the ageless Adam Wainwright ($9,000) but the Mets tagged him for five runs on seven hits in their first meeting. It was a rare blemish on the Wainwright game log this season, who has been averaging over 19 DKFP per start. While Wainwright has been good overall, his numbers are bumped higher on the road, where he has a 3.91 FIP.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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