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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 14

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Tuesday is always the best day of baseball, as every team is in action. This massive 12-game slate begins at 7:05 p.m. ET and features some really enticing options to choose from. Let’s get into it!

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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Gerrit Cole, $10,700, New York Yankees (-365) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+280) — Just as we saw last night, the biggest favorite on this slate is someone with a level of concern. Cole was removed from his last start due to a hamstring injury. He made an ultra quick recovery and even felt good enough to attempt to jump the railing of the dugout when the Yankees and Mets looked as if they were going to get into a scrum. All signs point to him being ready to go tonight against a team he’s moped the floor with already this season. In his prior start against the O’s, Cole went seven innings, allowing just four hits, no runs and 13 strikeouts. Cole, naturally, is leading the odds to win the American League Cy Young but anyone who follows me knows I’m rooting for Robbie Ray. This, of course, forces me to want a bad start to come to fruition, so I’m not a great person to ask for advice here.

With that said, in a sensible world, you do have to have SOME level of concern here. Cole did successfully go through a bullpen session, so they feel confident enough that he can make the start. Hamstring injuries can be tricky, however. As the most expensive player in DFS and the biggest favorite on the Sportsbook, it’s a legitimate concern. Even with the Yankees vying for a playoff spot, I don’t think they would risk further injury to their ace if they didn’t feel as if he was ready. With that said, we also could see a quicker than usual hook if the Yankees have a comfortable lead. Simply some things to consider. Cole’s number across the board have been great and his 2.00 FIP in the second-half is extremely impressive.


Highest Projected Total

Chicago Cubs (+175; 3.5 runs) at Philadelphia Phillies (-210; 5.5 runs) 9.5 runs — Tuesday features a number of games with a 9.5 game total but this one sports a -115 on the over. The Cubs will visit Citizens Bank Park for a three-game series against the Phillies, who continue this rollercoaster season. They lost three of the four games against the Rockies over the weekend, which has put them 4.5 back in the NL East behind the Braves. With the NL West looking as if they’ll lock up both Wild Card spots, every game is a must win for the Phillies.

Neither of these teams are strong with hitting the over on the game total. The Phillies do so in just 51% of their games while the Cubs are near the bottom of the league at 47%. With that said, when these teams met for a four-game series earlier, the over went a perfect 4-0. The Phillies have one of the higher team total on this slate at 5.5 runs against Adrian Sampson ($5,700). He’s only thrown 16 1/3 innings since being called up from Triple-A and while his 2.20 ERA looks great, the 5.86 FIP tells a different story. He’s already allowed four home runs in his short time up, which has been an issue all throughout his career. This Phillies offense is most certainly struggling, but this Cubs bullpen has been extremely hittable.


Weather Notes

Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals - Rain is in the forecast all throughout the evening, so we likely will see at least a delay at some point.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jake Arrieta, .404, 6.56
Jordan Lyles, .346, 5.66
Jake Woodford, .390, 5.24

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Nathan Eovaldi, .276, 2.35
Drew Rasmussen, .267, 2.38
Gerrit Cole, .283, 2.87


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jesus Luzardo, .393, 6.49
Jake Arrieta, .381, 5.61
Jordan Lyles, .371, 5.55

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Gerrit Cole, .237, 2.47
Jose Berrios, .239, 2.96
Marcus Stroman, .277, 3.10


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners, $9,600 — As much as I LOVE the Mariners, this team struggles to hit consistently. The evidence is in the numbers, as they have a team .298 wOBA, a .157 ISO and a 92 wRC+. They also strikeout a ton with a 25.4% K%, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. This plays in well into Eovaldi, who has a 9.4 K/9 and very rarely walks batters with a 1.6 BB/9. He struggled against this team earlier this season, however, Eovaldi has had a stellar second-half of the season. Through 60 13 innings, he’s posted a 3.31 FIP with a 10.7 K/9 and just a 1.4 BB/9.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles, $5,400 — Judge doesn’t just hit lefties well, he does so on the road. Tonight, he’ll see Alexander Wells ($5,400) who has been doing everything in his power to ensure the O’s get a high draft pick. He has to attempt to get Judge out, who has a .453 wOBA, a .273 ISO and a 192 wRC+ against lefties on the road this season. When Wells has been on the mound, he’s posted a 5.54 FIP, a 1.5 HR/9 a 4.3 BB/9 and only a 6.7 K/9. The Yankees should be all over him and Judge will be right in the middle of the lineup to knock those runs in.


Save Big by Drafting

Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins, $2,900 — With a lefty taking the mound against the Nationals, that means we get a Zimmerman start. That’s his role on this team but to his credit, he performs well in it. Through 102 plate appearances against lefties, Zimmerman has a .379 wOBA, a .289 ISO and a 136 wRC+. To compare, these numbers are miles away from when he faces righties, which he has just a .279 wOBA, a .188 ISO and a 71 wRC+. With Jesus Luzardo ($6,300) continuing to struggle, the time has never been better to pay down for Zimmerman.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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