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MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 14

Matt LaMarca gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB betting card.

The MLB regular season is winding down, but there are 16 games to choose from on Tuesday. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays:

Over 9.0 runs (-105)

The Blue Jays’ offense isn’t just hot right now, they are blazing. They’ve scored at least six runs in 10 of their past 12 games, and they’ve scored at least eight runs in eight of them. That includes each of their past four games, where they averaged a ridiculous 13 runs per game.

The Rays’ offense has also been arguably the best in baseball this season. They lead the league in runs per game, and they have been an absolute over machine. The over has gone 80-58-6 in Rays games this season, resulting in a +12.6% return on investment.

Both teams will send right-handed pitchers to the mound on Tuesday, and both squads have been excellent in that split. They both rank in the top three in wRC+ and top four in ISO vs. right-handers, so I’m expecting more offense from these squads tonight.

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers:

Rangers ML (+175)

Let’s roll the dice on a long shot. The Rangers are taking on Zack Greinke, and there’s a chance that he’s washed up. He’s pitched to a respectable 3.86 ERA over the second half of the season, but his underlying metrics are scary. His K/9 has dropped to just 5.08 since the All-Star break, and his slugging percentage allowed has increased by 70 points over that time frame. He’s also allowed nearly two full homers per nine innings over the second half of the season, resulting in a 5.35 FIP.

The Rangers’ offense isn’t anything to write home about, but they’ve held their own against right-handers recently. They rank 18th in that split over the past 14 days, so it’s not inconceivable that they get to Greinke on Tuesday.

The bigger question is whether or not Jordan Lyles can keep the Astros’ offense at bay. He’s pitched to a 5.43 ERA and 5.60 FIP this season, so over 9.0 runs is probably the safest bet in this game. Still, I’m a sucker for a potential +175 payout.

Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals:

Marlins ML (+125)

I just can’t quit Jesus Luzardo. He was utterly dominant when he made his MLB debut out of the A’s bullpen in 2019, but he has struggled to recapture that magic. He’s pitched to a disastrous 6.72 ERA this season, which is why the A’s were willing to trade him to the Marlins at the deadline. Luzardo was once considered among the best pitching prospects in baseball, so he’s had a precipitous fall.

However, he’s started to show some signs of life recently. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his past three starts, and he’s struck out 19 batters over his past 17 1/3 innings.

He’s clearly more talented than Nationals starter Erick Fedde, so I can’t resist taking a shot on Luzardo at better than even money.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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