The NFL futures market is a fascinating one. We’ve had all summer to examine the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and get our bets in. Now, just like that, we have seen one game of the product from each team on the field. We can make decisions on what we saw in Week 1 that we believe was for real, and what was a fluke. The product on the field caused plenty of movement in the futures market, so let’s take a look at some of those notable odds on the move.
The MVP market is obviously a popular one, and dominated by the QB position. In Week 1, we see a ton of reaction after just one game — whether it be a long shot playing well and climbing the board, or a favorite that disappoints and sees their odds slide.
You can see which players moved the most from their opening number to following their Week 1 outing. If I’m buying into any of the four risers being for real, it’s Matthew Stafford. I would’ve much rather bet him at +1800 before the season, but the massive jump to +800 tells us something. I don’t care about the dominant performance against the Bears, but we clearly saw that this pairing with Sean McVay and the Rams is going to work. If Stafford stays healthy, watch out for this offense.
Kyler Murray was a sexy pick for MVP going into 2020, and at points in November you could’ve cashed those tickets out for some profit. I’m not buying into one big road win against the Titans, who have an awful secondary. I’m not a believer in Murray for MVP, but if you are, I think we’ll see a better number later in the season.
Last year’s MVP was on the opposite side of Winston’s blowout win. While Aaron Rodgers won MVP last season, I’m not rushing to get the value on him. While a bounce-back victory over the Lions seems likely on MNF, I don’t see a repeat season for the Packers’ signal caller. I’d prefer to take the value on the young and upcoming QB — Josh Allen. The Bills were the largest upset of the week — a 6.5-point home favorite over the Steelers. Still plenty of time for the Bills to get right, including in Miami in Week 2.
We have a new favorite on the OROY market — the last of the five first-round QB selections. It was an interesting week to track the OROY market. All five of the QBs scored a touchdown in their NFL debuts, despite Justin Fields and Trey Lance only being part of goal line packages. Lance was also to only one who had his team get the win. That said, the top-two picks, both of whom started, had terrible showings. Trevor Lawrence had major issues with a Texans defense that by all accounts should have an awful season. It caused him to drop from +350 to +500. Zach Wilson just took a small dip in the market, throwing a pair of touchdowns in a loss.
It’s tough to justify backing Lance or Fields until we get word that they’ve been named the starter. While you missed some value on Mac Jones, he’s the best play on the board. Some books had Jones at +350 before Week 1, yet DraftKings Sportsbook still had him up at +600. While the Patriots lost, the +400 favorite still feels like good value. Flags and fumbles from other veterans lost New England the game, while Mac looked very poised. There’s a stability here we don’t get with the other QBs, who are either in worse situations, or in backup roles. Jones has the chance to be very solid for a team in playoff contention.
It would be shocking if this award didn’t go to a QB, especially in a QB class like this. But we’ll cover all out bases here. For pass-catchers, Kyle Pitts took a slight dip after catching four passes for just 31 yards. Meanwhile, the top-three WR off the board all found their way into the end zone — Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. All of them slightly climbed the board.
Here’s something interesting to note — almost half of the divisions in the NFL are right back where they started. All four teams in the NFC West and AFC West are 1-0, while all four teams in the NFC North are 0-4. Then there’s the AFC South, where the Titans, Colts and Jaguars all lost, and the mighty Texans are 1-0! But since nobody really takes Houston seriously, I’m including the AFC South here as one of the divisions you can get similar odds on leading into Week 2 as you could’ve ahead of Week 1.
I don’t have much of a strong take on these divisions, while I do think the -110 on the Titans is a pretty good price. But just bringing this to the attention of bettors who still may want to get in early on these divisions before prices scatter in Week 2.
NFL Week 2 early plays @julianedlow (SF -7) and @SBuchanan24 (MIA +2.5) both cashed their early best bets given out on the pod for Week 1.— Unreasonable Odds Podcast (@UnreasonableOdd) September 15, 2021
Now Julian gives out his best bet for Week 2, while Steve gets greedy and tries to add to it.
Full pod: https://t.co/foFYe8A98E pic.twitter.com/6cI4sA9e2j
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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