Week 2 gets underway on Thursday with an NFC East matchup between the Giants and Washington Football team — let’s dig into some odds on DraftKings Sportsbook!
These TNF and MNF articles will always list out some of my favorite plays to consider. For my full card, including any bets I lock in from primetime games, make sure to check out my NFL Best Bets article. For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow.
I understand that we’ve seen some reverse line movement here, with more of the money on the Washington side, but the spread shrinking in favor of the Giants. That said, at -3 or better, give me the Washington side of this game.
Daniel Jones has been much better than average against WFT in his career — 4-0 without a fumble versus 4-19 with 17 lost fumbles against all other teams. But this Washington defense is in a different place this season.
Washington was in a grinder against the Chargers, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick going down during the game. At home on a short week against a very poor New York offensive line, I think this front will get significant pressure on Jones, leading to his usual mistakes. It’s a similar matchup to Denver, and the Broncos were able to earn a dominant road victory in Week 1.
As for the move at QB, I think it gets us a little more value on this game. The number with Fitz in was set at -5.5, and has steadily moved down. Taylor Heinicke has proven to be solid in the past, and the Giants aren’t the defense to exposure him. It’s a step down from Teddy Bridgewater at QB, but I really feel the QB change helps us get a better number here.
Heinicke was 11-for-15 with 122 passing yards and a touchdown coming in of the fly against a solid Chargers defense. Heinicke came to play in Washington’s Wild Card loss to Tampa Bay in the playoffs, so he’s shown up in his last two opportunities. He can also move on the ground a little bit, which we’ll touch on below. As long as the QB doesn’t let the team down, the Washington defense should be enough of an edge to get this game.
This is a play I’ve already locked in and will be adding to the Week 2 best bets article.
Heinicke scrambled three times in the Week 1 loss to the Chargers, going for 17 yards. But remember that this came in a partial game, and he’s had very few real opportunities in his career. When Heinicke faced the Bucs in the playoffs last year, he actually carried the ball six times for 46 yards and a touchdown. He also saw some brief run in the 2020 regular season, taking three carries for 22 yards against the Panthers. Heinicke last earned a start back in 2018 against the Falcons, rushing for 33 yards. This feels like a low number for a QB that’s proven to be pretty mobile, with a good matchup on tap.
We were told that Gibson would be featured in a Christian McCaffrey type of role in 2021, and while it wasn’t quite that from a receiving perspective in Week 1, he did take 20 carries in a close game against a good defense. Gibson managed 90 yards on those 20 carries, and the rest of the RBs on Washington’s roster combined for three rushing attempts. Gibson’s going to take a lion’s share of the carries, and is in a much better spot this week. Washington is a home favorite on a short week, and the Giants surrendered 165 rushing yards on 28 attempts in Week 1 to the Broncos — 5.9 yards per carry. Gibson should be in line for another 20 carries out of the backfield in this one, potentially more.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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