You know what really gets me fired up for an evening of DFS? Seeing Daniel Jones ($10,400) and Taylor Heinicke ($10,200) as the two most expensive assets on a slate. Truly gets the blood pumping, you know? Forget the star power of last week’s opening night festivities, this is Thursday Night Football, my friends.
We’ve got the New York Giants and the Washington Football Team squaring off. Let’s break it down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (NYG vs WAS)
:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22853945/SB_Pools_Generic.jpg)
Play Free for $5K at DraftKings Sportsbook Pools
Make Any Given Weekday a victorious one by making FREE game picks to win your share of $5K. Enter the Free $5K MNF Pool at the DraftKings Sportsbook Pools page!
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Antonio Gibson ($14,400 CP) - While much of this data is skewed by a 70-yard Melvin Gordon touchdown run, the Giants were pretty terrible containing the Broncos’ rushing attack in Week 1. New York finished the contest allowing a league-worst 5.9 yards per opponent rushing attempt, which is mostly why the Giants currently rank as the NFL’s seventh-worst rushing defense according to DVOA. All this to say: Antonio Gibson should be licking his chops at this matchup on Thursday. In a relatively neutral game script in a Week 1 loss to the Chargers, Gibson logged 65.5% of Washington’s 55 offensive snaps, registering 23 touches and 108 scrimmage yards. What else needs to be said? He’s not quite a “bell cow” back, but you can count those types of RBs on one hand at this point.
Kenny Golladay ($12,300 CP) - Choosing between Sterling Shepard ($8,000) and Golladay in DFS this week will be a tough decision. While it was Shepard who finished Week 1 leading the team in target share (25%), receptions (7), receiving yards (113) and DKFP (27.3), it’s not like Golladay wasn’t also used in intriguing ways. The team’s big free agent acquisition finished the loss to Denver averaging 16.7 air yards per target, foreshadowing his role as a more than capable down-field threat. Additionally, Golladay logged an 85.3% snap share, which really puts to bed any preseason concerns about his health. In general, I think the former third-round pick can expose a Washington secondary that’s not quite as deep as the unit the Broncos brought to the table last Sunday. I’d expect Shepard will be the more popular of the duo, which, when paired with Golladay’s higher ceiling, makes him the perfect GPP play.
FLEX Plays
Washington D/ST ($5,400) - There’s really not a lot to analyze here, is there? We all know about the destructive power of Washington’s front-seven. Between Chase Young, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat, the Football Team can wreck havoc in the trenches, and they should be able to get to Daniel Jones all night long. In a vacuum, such pressure might cause a turnover or two from a quarterback under duress; however, Jones isn’t your usual pivot. In fact, after leading the NFL in fumbles in both 2019 and 2020, the Duke product fumbled once again in the Giants’ opening weekend loss to the Broncos, bringing his career total to 30 fumbles in 28 games. He’s also thrown 22 interceptions. Simply put, Jones is the most generous QB in the league to fantasy defenses by a wide margin.
Dyami Brown ($1,400) - I’m a little worried that people are going to treat Brown like a free square on this slate — his microscopic salary makes so many builds possible — yet, at the same time, we are talking about someone who currently has negative two receiving yards for his NFL career. There’s a chance he’s able to fly under the radar. The most important stat from Brown’s rookie debut wasn’t his lack of yardage, rather the amount of time he spent on the field. Filling in for the injured Curtis Samuel (groin), Brown played 51 of a possible 55 offensive snaps versus Los Angeles, good for a 92.7% snap share. That level of volume at a price point just over $1K is obscene, even if you’re fighting with Terry McLaurin ($9,000) for targets and taking passes from your second-string QB.
Fades
Saquon Barkley ($10,000) - I’ve now written three Showdown articles so far this season and I’ve been able to talk smack about the most expensive running back on the slate all three times. The formula here is simple: Can Barkley guarantee the volume and expected fantasy point output of a quarterback on Thursday? Because with a salary this robust, that’s essentially what he’s going to have to do. I’m not suggesting that Barkley’s Week 1 snap count is set in stone moving forward, but the former first-round pick only played five more downs than Devontae Booker ($2,800) against the Broncos. Even in a negative game script, that’s concerning. On top of that, Washington allowed the seventh-fewest adjusted line yards per opponent rushing attempt in 2020 (4.06) and it did a pretty great job of keeping Austin Ekeler under wraps in Week 1. This is far from an ideal matchup.
THE OUTCOME
I triple-checked this, but somehow Daniel Jones has never lost to Washington. He is 4-0 in his brief NFL career. That is what we in the business call a statistical aberration. In a battle of underwhelming quarterbacks, I simply have more faith in Washington’s ability to move the football on the ground and create a few short fields with its pass rush. Welcome back to real Thursday Night Football.
Final Score: Washington 24, New York 17
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.5M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (NYG vs WAS)
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.