Week 2 started off strong but ended with some really tough calls, including a bad 3-unit play on NC State. Here’s where I’m looking on the Week 3 card for college football.
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UConn at Army
Army -33.5 (-115)
2-Unit Play on 9/16
Fade UConn at all costs ... it’s as simple as that. The Huskies have been shutout by both FBS schools they’ve faced so far — 45-0 to Fresno State and 49-0 to Purdue. Sandwiched in-between going scoreless against FBS competition, UConn lost by 10 as a three-point favorite to Holy Cross. Holy Cross! This team is just far too incompetent to keep up with a really solid Army squad. The Black Knights are off to a 2-0 start while averaging over 40 points per game, which should continue in this one. Something like 42-0 feels right for this game, so don’t be shy to play some UConn team total under when it comes out if you want more angles on this one.
Alabama at Florida
Alabama 1H -7.5 (-115)
2-Unit Play on 9/16
When you’re the 11th ranked team in the country, yet a home dog of more than two touchdowns, it can only mean one thing — ‘Bama’s coming to town. The full game spread is fair. I could see this being a 21-point game in the fourth quarter, with the cover up in the air on a meaningless drive. I don’t love being in those situations, as Nick Saban has taken his foot off the gas in the past. But the Crimson Tide are off to another blistering start this season, and we know they come out of the gates hot as a first half ATS machine. Florida’s lack of a passing game is really going to hurt the Gators when it comes to keeping up with the Tide.
Auburn at Penn State
Penn State -4.5 (-115)
2-Unit Play on 9/16
This is going to be a really fun Saturday night game. Not only do we get the return of the “white out” game at Beaver Stadium, but against a rare SEC opponent. Auburn is 2-0 SU and ATS, but going up against as low-level competition as you could possibly imagine — a combined score of 122-10 against Akron and Alabama State. No doubt the Tigers have a solid team, but this is going to be a whole different kind of experience. Bo Nix has been significantly worse on the road in his career, and this is about as tough of a road game as you could ask for. One of the most hostile atmospheres in college football, going up against an elite defense that’s already been tested on the road at Wisconsin. Penn State is 4-2 ATS in the “white out” game since James Franklin took over, and has performed really well the last four years. The Nittany Lions are 3-1 SU with a one-point loss to a top-five Ohio State team, and 3-1 ATS, beating Michigan by a touchdown as 7.5-point favorites in 2019.
Purdue at Notre Dame
ND -7 (-110)
1-Unit Play on 9/16
Extreme buy-low spot here on the Fighting Irish, so I’ll reluctantly buy-in. I am not a Notre Dame guy in any way, and this team having a No. 12 next to their name is a gross overrating following just squeaking by Florida State and Toledo. But even I’ll admit that the Irish are due to turn it on at home against a mediocre Purdue squad. I don’t buy ND long-term here, and am already liking Wisconsin in next week’s matchup. But this should be a double-digit spread, so I’ll play it small and hope the Irish finally show.
Mississippi State at Memphis
Memphis +3.5 (-115)
1-Unit Play on 9/16
The Bulldogs got us good last week, taking care of business at home against NC State. Now they get too much respect on the road against a solid Memphis team that can really put points up. This one should be a barnburner, but I like the home Tigers to be able to come up with more stops. I think they get this one outright, but getting the field goal at home feels pretty safe. Memphis has performed well against SEC competition at home in the past.
Nevada at Kansas State
Nevada Moneyline (-115)
1-Unit Play on 9/16
We cashed Nevada outright as a road dog against Cal back in Week 1, and now we have another good road spot for this team. The Wolfpack have a really solid offense led by great QB play, whereas Kansas State is going to be missing a key piece of its offense. Starting QB Skylar Thompson is out for K-State, downgrading to Will Howard under center. While Howard has a bit of experience, Kenny White has this QB move as a 4.5-point hit to the line, but we’ve hardly seen any movement. Good spot to take advantage of the better team at a near pick’em price.
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