Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
Russell Wilson ($7,500) – DK Metcalf ($7,600) – A.J. Brown ($6,900)
Russell Wilson tore apart what was supposed to be a solid Colts defense in Week 1, passing for a 78% completion rate and producing 27.06 DKFP in a game where he only threw 23 times. Despite the big Week 1, his sentiment for Week 2 doesn’t seem to be overly high. We saw how expensive stacks like the Chiefs in Week 1 can create good leverage spots in big-field GPPs though and a similar opportunity seems to be forming here for Week 2 with Wilson and crew.
The Seahawks and Titans have an over/under of 54.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook currently (second biggest on the main slate) and Seattle has a 29.75 implied team total, which is third biggest of the week (currently). While Wilson only threw 23 times last week, teams tend to throw a lot against Tennessee (who had the fourth-fastest pace of play last season)—and we just saw their secondary give up four passing TDs and 9.0 yards per completion in Week 1. DK Metcalf only saw five targets in Week 1, yet his salary hasn’t dipped at all, a development which could really cap his ownership here at low numbers. Going back to last season, Tennessee has been one of the best matchups for opposing WRs in fantasy and the Titans continued that trend last week by allowing four TDs and 14.4 yards per catch to Arizona’s WR.
On the other side of this game, the Seahawks’ secondary continues to be their weakness as well. Despite a solid game overall in Week 1 they allowed two TDs and a 71% catch-rate to Indy’s thin wide receiver crew. They will almost certainly be overmatched in Week 2 against the likes of A.J. Brown, who played over 80% of the snaps and led the team in targets (8) in the opener. Stacking the pass games here is expensive, but it’s likely to get us on some lower owned studs in Week 2 and give us a great shot at having the highest scoring stack of the week.
Just Missed: Kyler Murray ($8,200) – DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) – Justin Jefferson ($7,400)
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers ($6,500)
Hurts paid off for us in Week 1 after he was featured with DeVonta Smith ($5,400) in the stacks section last week. The Eagles’ QB had the best game of his career against the Falcons, throwing for a 77% completion rate, three TDs and also rushing for 62 yards. Despite all that, and as evidenced by his DraftKings salary—which is only $100 more than last week—there’s still not a huge belief that Hurts can replicate that success against San Francisco in Week 2.
Hurts and the Eagles are again 3.5-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook in this matchup (at home) and will be facing the 49ers, who gave up a ton of yards last week to Jared Goff and the Lions. The 49ers have players who can disrupt the QB (they had 27 recorded pressures on the QB last week) but we know Hurts can counter that kind of pressure with his legs too. The weak secondary and linebacker crew of San Fran got exposed last week and I expected Hurts’ ability to move out of the pocket will expose it again with the likes of Dallas Goedert ($4,600). This game has a healthy 50.5 O/U attached to it and even if the Eagles’ passing game regresses a little here, Hurts’ ability to potentially hit the bonus with his legs makes him an excellent risk reward play again, at a very palatable price tag.
Just Missed: Joe Burrow ($5,800)
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($6,100)
Montgomery had a solid Week 1, going for 6.8 yards per carry against the highly touted Rams offense. Despite being behind for most of the game, the third-year back was still able to see 16 carries and was the vastly superior rusher to Damien Williams ($4,900), who averaged just 2.0 yards per carry and only saw significant snaps because the Bears were down big late. The Bears don’t have a massive implied team total in Week 2 (23.5) but they are 2.5-point home favorites, so the game environment figures to be much more friendly for Montgomery.
The Bengals held Dalvin Cook ($9,100) to just 3.0 yards per carry last week but this is a rush defense that allowed 5.0 yards per carry in 2020 (third worst in the league). Given that Chicago seems determined to start Andy Dalton ($5,200) for the foreseeable future, and the fact Dalton only managed 5.4 yards per attempt in Week 1 (fourth worst in the league), a force-feeding of Montgomery against weaker teams like Cincinnati seems likely in order to protect their obvious deficit at QB. At just $6.1K, there’s a lot of upside for Monty here, who should approach or exceed 20+ touches in Week 2.
Just Missed: Ezekiel Elliott ($6,200)
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears ($5,000)
Despite all the negative sentiment surrounding him in preseason, Chase came out and led the Bengals’ wide receivers in targets, production and snaps played. It was vindication for the “preseason means nothing crew” and another example of how we should sometimes just “trust the talent”. Despite the big Week 1, Chase doesn’t seem to be gaining a ton of traction here as a viable play in Week 2, which makes him a great target again in my eyes. A lot of the Bears talk in Week 1 surrounded Andy Dalton’s turnovers, but their secondary was also a huge issue. The Bears allowed 16.85 yards per catch and three TDs to the Rams’ wide receivers, despite Matthew Stafford throwing the ball just 26 times.
Chase converted five of his seven targets to catches in Week 1 and averaged over 20.0 yards per catch, yet his price on DraftKings has only risen $200. There are reasons to be wary of the Bengals’ offense, but the price on Chase here is too cheap after he produced true WR1 numbers in his first game. He’s a great value option for those needing a little help paying down at WR.
Just Missed: Marquez Callaway ($4,200)
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,200)
Pitts was the huge chalk in Week 1 but ended the week as a disappointment for fantasy purposes, as he only managed four catches for 31 yards against Philly. Despite the poor week, he’s now seen an $1,100 price increase, which should create a very good “buy low” opportunity for DFS. The increase is almost assuredly going to create low ownership on Pitts, who despite the slow week, saw very encouraging usage (he tied for the team lead in targets with eight, despite playing on just 70% of the snaps).
The fact the Falcons weren’t able to move the ball against a weaker team is concerning but they figure to be throwing the ball a ton against the Bucs, who allowed just 3.3 yards per carry against Dallas. Tampa Bay also allowed the Cowboys’ TEs to go 9 for 9 in terms of catch-rate and allowed the sixth-most TDs to the TE position last season. Despite being a bust in Week 1, the opportunity here for Pitts to produce in Week 2 is very intriguing. Teams threw against Tampa an average of 39.5 times per game last season and that trend showed no sign of slowing in Week 1 (Dallas threw 50 times). Pitts is a huge bounce-back candidate for Week 2.
Just Missed: Pharaoh Brown ($2,900)
Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Steelers surprised most of the league by pulling off the upset in Week 1 against Josh Allen and the Bills. Their defense was the story of the game as they managed to hold a Bills offense that averaged 31.3 points last season to just 16, while also recording three sacks and a defensive score. It’s hard to put into terms how well this unit played, but for context, DT Cam Heyward was the highest graded player on Pro Football Focus in the entire league last week and the six highest graded players on their team were all defensive players.
The Raiders are coming into Pittsburgh on a short week now and are in a huge letdown spot considering the nature of their Monday Night win. Vegas managed just 3.9 yards per rush and forced Derek Carr to throw the ball 58 times (for just a 60% completion rate). The opportunities for sacks and pick-sixes here will be plentiful and the Steelers have the talent to capitalize. Look for a big day from this potentially overlooked unit.
Just missed: Bengals ($2,900)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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