It’s Week 2 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to buy into some narratives coming out of Week 1’s performances, but fade one guy who enjoyed a nice start to his season. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears
Andy Dalton over 218.5 Passing Yards
I hit both of my passing props last week and missed both of my rushing props, so I’m going to go back to the air here. Dalton looked surprisingly competent against a solid Rams defense, even if he barely eclipsed the 200-yard mark on Sunday night. Cincinnati’s secondary allowed Kirk Cousins to complete 36 of 49 passes last week for over 350 yards and comes in off a disappointing 2020. Though the Bears may opt to hand the ball to David Montgomery here and elect not to throw 50 times, I still think Dalton did a good enough job as a game manager in Week 1 to expect a decent enough performance to hit the over.
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Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
Ryan Tannehill over 256.5 Passing Yards
It wasn’t the dream start to the season that Ryan Tannehill was looking for, but dare I say he was okay against a strong Arizona secondary with 212 yards and 60% of his passes completed? He turned the ball over three times — twice on fumbles — and still managed to move the ball and eclipse 200 yards. He will be relieved to face a Seahawks secondary that was one of the worst in 2020 and just allowed Carson Wentz to go for 251 yards and keep the Colts in last week’s game. Seattle did nothing to fix its woes back there, and it showed. Tennessee still has a lethal passing attack even without Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis this year and should have its first strong showing of the year.
Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Carlos Hyde under 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
This appears to be an overreaction to Week 1. Hyde played just 25 snaps for the Jaguars in Week 1, which is only 34% of all offensive plays. Denver was actually 11th against the rush last week judging by DVOA, and that makes me like this under even more. I think the Jaguars should be playing from behind for most of this one, and Urban Meyer should come to his senses and realize that James Robinson is good and deserves even more snaps than he got in Week 1. Hyde should be a very forgettable player this week.
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Van Jefferson over 2.5 receptions (-145)
Jefferson reminded us that he’s still incredibly talented and has a world of potential in Week 1 with some tantalizing routes and a solid 80 yards on two catches. While he was targeted just three times, he did play a resounding 69% of the Rams’ offensive snaps and appears to be a big part of this game plan. The Rams also showed a willingness to pass — a lot — and Jefferson is bound to get more targets with his talent and usage. I think this has the makings of a big year for the Florida product, and he should find success against a Colts secondary that looked downright awful in a Week 1 loss to the Seahawks.
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