The MLB regular season is winding down, but there are 15 games to choose from on Saturday. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Mets ML (-105)
The Mets’ season is all but dead, but they still have the chance to play spoiler for the Phillies. They stand out as a preferred target for the sharps on Saturday, which has unfortunately caused this line to move a bit. The Mets have been listed as high as +105 in this matchup, but I still think there’s value with the current number.
Carlos Carrasco will head to the mound, and he has had an interesting season. He owns a dreadful 5.59 ERA, but his 3.91 xFIP suggests he’s been better than his traditional metrics indicate. His biggest issue has been getting through the first inning. He owns a 6.52 FIP the first time through the order, but that number drops to 2.90 after that. Batters are supposed to get better the more they face you, not worse, so Carrasco seems due for some better luck to start the game. If that happens, I like his chances of keeping the Phillies’ offense at bay.
Padres ML (+105)
There have been plenty of bizarre storylines during the season, and these teams have been part of the equation. The Padres seemed like a mortal lock for a playoff spot, but a recent skid has left them on the outside looking in. They’re currently 1.5-games out of the final Wild Card spot, and they’ll need to jump two teams in the standings.
One of those teams is the Cardinals, who looked well out of contention during the trade deadline. That said, they’ve won six straight games thanks to some veteran pitching options, including Adam Wainwright. Wainwright will take the mound on Saturday, and he’s had a resurgence in 2021. He’s pitched to a 2.88 ERA this season, even though he just turned 40. He’s been lights out over the second half of the year, pitching to a 2.02 ERA since the All-Star break.
That’s a nice story, but I’ll take my chances with Yu Darvish in this matchup. He’s a more traditional version of a dominant pitcher, racking up 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings this season. He’s struggled mightily over the second half of the year, but he’s simply too talented to be an underdog in this matchup.
Corbin Burnes over 8.5 strikeouts (-125)
This is a high number for a strikeout prop, but I still don’t think it’s high enough. Burnes has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball this season, racking up an average of 12.43 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s coming off a dominant 14 strikeout performance in his last outing, and he’s hit the over on 8.5 strikeouts in two of his past three starts.
Now, he gets easily the top possible matchup from a strikeout perspective. He’s taking on the Cubs, who have been swinging and missing like crazy against right-handers this season. They own a 27.5% strikeout rate vs. right-handers since the All-Star break, and no other team is above even 25.5%. Overall, the gap between the Brewers and the Marlins – who rank second in strikeout rate – is larger than the gap between the Marlins and Reds (who rank 11th). Burnes likely only needs six innings to get to nine strikeouts in this matchup, and he might be able to get it done in five.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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