It’s Sunday, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon and so many valuable lines out there that it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Under 9.5 (-120)
This may be the dumbest thing I’ve ever done (and I’ve done a lot of dumb things) but I’m gearing up to take the under in a game started by Jake Arrieta and J.A. Happ.
I don’t care how bad these two pitchers have been, the offenses for both teams have been worse. Yes, the Cardinals have won seven straight games, but their offense has little to do with it — with poor numbers in the exit velocity department, a low walk rate and a troubling strikeout rate.
The Padres also rank 23rd in wRC+ to left-handed pitching this year with a .214 average and a 65 wRC+ over the last week. San Diego is down bad, and this should be a new low for them, failing to do much against the graying Happ. That, in chorus with the Cardinals’ poor peripherals catching up with them, should help us here.
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Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants
Giants ML (-125)
Max Fried has looked rather fried lately, giving up four homers in his last four outings and walking four hitters in the one start he didn’t surrender a longball. While a 3.38 ERA could be a lot worse in 24 innings, it’s not exactly to the level which Fried is capable of pitching, and six extra base hits and six walks in conjunction with the homers indicates things could be a whole lot worse for the lefty.
The Giants rank seventh against left-handed pitching this year and second in baseball in wRC+ over the last week, and should be more than ready to get the sweep of the Braves. Anthony DeSclafani has settled in after a rough patch around the All Star break with an ERA hovering around two runs and should find success against an impatient Atlanta team striking out over 25% of the time in the last seven days.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Phillies ML (+105)
The Mets look dead in the water, disinterested in competing for the rest of the season. Now 5 1⁄2 games out, the road to the postseason looks to be a near-impossible one, and that’s especially true with the Phillies turning it on and winning four in a row.
Philadelphia has long been a talented team against southpaws, so a 102 wRC+ this year should come as no surprise. Rich Hill is also a pretty poor lefty, losing his strikeout touch in the last two years and pitching to a 4.47 xERA at age 41. He looks to be heading towards retirement, and a big night for the Phillies should help send him out sad.
New York has cooled off significantly with a 93 wRC+ in the last week while the Phillies rank seventh in baseball with a 124 wRC+ over that span. These are two teams trending in opposite directions. Make the easy choice.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.