It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of baseball on the docket. I’ve taken a look at the entire card and I think I’ve picked out three winners.
Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Things are looking up for the Red Sox, who wrestled a game back from the Rays on Wednesday and have now won six of 10. Over the last two weeks, a dormant offense has performed quite admirably, posting a 116 wRC+ to rank seventh in all of baseball. With an impressive .215 ISO, a 9.4% walk rate and a relatively low 21.4% strikeout rate, this team is putting together good at-bats and racking up the extra-base hits.
Shane McClanahan will start this game for the Rays, and while he has an exciting arsenal and a bright future in the league, some of his numbers leave a lot to be desired. His starts haven’t been the most convincing with a 4.59 xERA, a .421 xwOBA on contact and some horrendous exit velocity and barrel numbers. If you get the bat on the ball against this guy, good things will happen, but that’s been a tough ask with the number of strikeouts he’s been able to rack up.
I think the Sox should have the right approach at the plate here and hit the rookie where it hurts. That should be enough with Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound, considering Tampa Bay has been awful against left-handed pitching.
Editor’s Note: Marlins SP Sandy Alcantara will start tonight’s game vs. the Mets.
It’s true that Zach Thompson has been an effective right arm in the Marlins’ rotation, pitching to a 3.16 ERA in 13 starts. It’s also true that his lack of strikeouts and struggles with command will lead him to labor through some outings, and Thursday night in Queens should be one of them. Though New York’s offense has just been about league-average the past two weeks, the hits have tended to come in bunches. Against a guy who doesn’t punch many out, and who relies on a cutter — a pitch the Mets have done a lot of damage against in the second half — I could see runs on the board early and often. Then, on the other side, we have a pitcher who is really going through it in Carlos Carrasco. The graying righty owns an unsightly 6.94 ERA this year. Though there is a little more to Carrasco than those numbers, the peripherals are still generally bad and he’s years removed from when he was truly a good starter. I think this number is far too low.
For our last play of the day, we’ll head to Coors Field for an over. Touki Toussaint has pitched to one of the worst hard-hit rates in baseball this year at 47.7%, and as a result, he has an expected ERA a full run higher than his real-life mark. The altitude in Denver is where pitchers like Toussaint go to die, with those flaws being exposed in such a hitter-friendly environment.
Though the Rockies aren’t quite as hot at the dish as they were a few weeks ago, they’re still walking a whole bunch. Against a pitcher with a long history of control issues, the bases should have plenty of traffic and, with a few big batted ball events, the Rockies could pile up the runs.
Colorado will counter with Chi Chi Gonzalez, whose numbers in the exit velocity department are even worse than Toussaint’s. The Braves have struggled to an underwhelming 81 wRC+ across the past two weeks, but facing a pitcher with a 6.64 xERA in the attitude, I think Atlanta’s bats come to play.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.