Monday features a seven-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers ($8,600) — The Yankees are sliding and the Blue Jays are now in possession of the final Wild Card spot, but one of the players that helped turn the Yankees’ season around takes the mound tonight. Cortes has been brilliant since transitioning to a starter on July 4 (3.05 ERA). His advanced metrics leave much to be desired, but through 11 starts, he’s limited the damage of his 52.1% fly ball rate with a 28.8% hard contact rate and a 24.9% K rate. He has not been elite, but he will not need to be in a matchup against the Rangers — 80 wRC+, .284 wOBA and a .130 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Other Option: Freddy Peralta ($9,200)
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($6,900) — Who is Shane Baz? I’ll spare you the Google, and first of all, it’s pronounced BOZ. He was the Rays No. 6 prospect in 2020 and No. 1 prospect in 2021 (No. 20 in MLB). The Rays traded Chris Archer in 2018 to nab the prospect. As the image above indicates, Baz helped Team USA win the gold and he helped the Durham Bulls win the Triple-A Southeast division for the bazillionth time. He started the season at Double-A and posted a 2.48 ERA with a 40.8% K rate and improved at Triple-A with a 1.76 ERA and 36% K rate. Baz can reach triple digits with his fastball and he has a slider that is equally potent. Both pitches generate strikeouts and both should produce results immediately upon his arrival in the big leagues.
Other Option: John Means ($7,700)
Mike Zunino, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($4,700) — Dust of the old cheat code because Zunino is facing a lefty — .528 wOBA, .520 ISO, 243 wRC+ and a 43% hard contact rate. Robbie Ray ($10,200) has been solid against right-handed batters, but he is prone to giving up extra base hits — .182 ISO, 1.4 HR/9 and a 46% fly ball rate. Also, for the BvP truthers among us, Zunino has three home runs in 18 at-bats against Ray.
Other Option: Omar Narváez ($5,200)
Yan Gomes, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($4,300) — Zunino isn’t the only lefty specialist on the slate tonight. Gomes — typically a more expensive option — has a .384 wOBA, .266 ISO, 143 wRC+ and a 39% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. Tyler Anderson ($8,200) has not be destroyed by right-handed batters, but he does allow too much power — .324 wOBA, .213 ISO, 1.7 HR/9 and a 46% fly ball rate.
Other Option: Gary Sánchez ($3,700)
Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,200) — Humberto Mejia ($7,800) has only pitched six innings against left-handed batters, but they’ve been six bad innings —.467 wOBA and a .478 ISO. Regardless of the pitcher’s sample size, Freeman owns right-handed pitching — .396 wOBA, .225 ISO, 147 wRC+, 40% hard contact rate and a 15% K rate.
Other Option: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5,900)
Yuli Gurriel, Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels ($4,100) — Against right-handed pitching, Gurriel does what the rest of the of the Astros do, he gets hits and doesn't strike out — .349 wOBA and a 13% K rate. Jaime Barria ($5,600) is allowing a .354 wOBA to right-handed batters, and it could be worse with his 39% hard contact rate and 35% fly ball rate.
Other Option: Luke Voit ($3,300)
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Editor’s Note: Astros 2B Jose Altuve is not in the lineup tonight vs. the Angels.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels ($5,700) — Jaime Barria is a sub $6,000 pitcher for a reason. He has a 4.97 xFIP against right-handed batters and a 5.65 xFIP to lefties. The Astros stack makes sense, and Altuve is on top of that list with .368 wOBA, .226 ISO, 139 wRC+ and a 14 % K rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Ozzie Albies ($4,800)
Kolten Wong, Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals ($4,300) — Somehow the Cardinals can’t stop winning, but their streak might come to an end on Monday night. The Cardinals are facing the division leading Brewers and Jake Woodford ($5,200) is taking the mound — .392 wOBA, .237 ISO, 1.9 HR/9 and a 17% K rate against left-handed batters. Wong has a .332 wOBA, .178 ISO and 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: DJ LeMahieu ($3,800)
Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners ($4,500) — Against left-handed pitching, Chapman has a .360 wOBA, .281 ISO and 134 wRC+. As mentioned above, Tyler Anderson is not a gas can, but his flyball rate can be a problem. He’s allowed a home run in five of his last six starts for seven total.
Other Option: Eduardo Escobar ($5,100)
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,300) — A couple weeks ago, Riley had better odds to win the NL MVP than Juan Soto and Joey Votto, and now he is cheap and facing a bad starter and the worst bullpen in baseball (5.03 xFIP). Against right-handed-pitching, Riley has a .393 wOBA, .241 ISO and 145 wRC+.
Other Option: Alex Bregman ($4,200)
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels ($4,400) — The pricing algo may be broken, but then again it could be a lack of talent at the position on this slate. The Angels will roll out a weak starter and weak bullpen, and the Astros will continue to gear up for the playoffs — 145 wRC+ over the last two weeks (third-best).
Other Option: none
Freddy Galvis, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles ($3,600) — Back in June, Galvis was in the targets article almost every day and he worked — he kept hitting and his price never changed. Here we are again. He keeps hitting — two hits last night — and his price does not budge. If you've read this article lately, then you’ve seen this stat, but it’s important and bears repeating — in September, Galvis has a .439 wOBA, .341 ISO and a 175 wRC+.
Other Option: Dansby Swanson ($3,800)
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics ($5,700) — Against left-handed pitching, Haniger has a .353 wOBA, .253 ISO, 129 wRC+ and a 41% hard contact rate. Sean Manaea ($8,900) is a solid pitcher, but he has allowed a boatload of home runs — 2.1 HR/9 since July 1.
Other Option: Bryce Harper ($6,000), Aaron Judge ($5,200)
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers ($4,300) — He’s hot — four home runs in the last eight games for a .397 wOBA and .394 ISO — and he’s crushing right-handed pitching — .361 wOBA, .229 ISO and a 131 wRC+. A.J. Alexy ($6,300) is slated to pitch, and after his first two miraculous starts, he was destined for regression — that will happen with a 67% fly ball rate and 15% BB rate. Sure enough in his third appearance, the wheels fell off the wagon. Alexy allowed four hits (two home runs), four walks and six earned runs over 3 2⁄3 innings. Yankee Stadium is not the best place for an extreme fly ball pitcher with a walk problem.
Other Option: Adam Duvall ($4,100), Jose Siri ($2,000)
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