After some successful MNF props, we’re on to Week 3 of the NFL season. Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook!
While I will have other sports betting related content throughout the week, including best bets articles for both MNF and TNF each week (along with CFB best bets), this article will be where all my best bet wagers, along with unit size live on a weekly basis.
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
CAR -1.5/ARI -1.5 6-point teaser (-120) — 2.5 units (Bet September 21)
This could be a really good week for the 6-point teasers, with about five teams I have my eye on floating in the 7-9 point favorites range. But the one I’m locking in first as my best bet for the week is Carolina and Arizona. Both are 7.5-point favorites as I give the play out, and both could easily move to -8 (which I think is fine to play this at).
The Panthers and Cardinals are both out to solid 2-0 starts, somewhat surprisingly. I’m not sure these teams are completely for real, but we’re only going to fuel the hype this week, because both will be improving to 3-0.
Sam Darnold has looked really good outside of New York, revitalizing this offense. But more importantly, the Panthers are playing very well defensively. Arizona has an early MVP contender in Kyler Murray, helping the Cardinals to an average of 36 points per game through two contests. The defense also showed a pulse in Week 1, shutting down a very good Tennessee offense and getting to the QB well.
But this bet is more about who we’re going against. I know, the Texans are 2-0 ATS, but this is where the wheels start to fall off. They still lost by double-digits to the Browns, and now Tyrod Taylor is out, leaving Davis Mills to play QB on a short week. I’m expecting pretty poor results.
Jacksonville is a more conventional fade at the moment. Both 0-2 SU and ATS and showing very little on both sides of the ball. It doesn’t look like the Jags have any chance of stopping Kyler and this offense, to the point that the Cardinals win even if they wind up with a poor performance on defense. Jacksonville’s riding a 17-game losing streak into this one.
CAR -2/ARI -1/BUF -1.5/BAL -1.5/CLE -1 6-point teaser (+400) — 1 unit (Bet September 23)
This is kind of out of character for me to swing for the fences this much on a play, but the more this week rolls on, the more it jumps out to me as a teaser week. There are about two of these per NFL season, maybe three if we’re lucky, and I think Week 3 is one of them.
Unless something really changes, I don’t think I’m going to have a play on a single NFL side in Week 3. That said, I really like a lot of these favorites in the range of a touchdown to go on and win their games. Obviously, five teamers rarely come through, but I can’t ignore the value here. As I write this play up, a five-team moneyline parlay on these teams comes in at +212. But put them in a teaser to just win by more than a point or two, and we find our way up to +400. For a one unit play with high upside, I can’t pass on that.
BUF -1/BAL -1.5 6-point teaser (-120) — 1.5 unit (Bet September 26)
Adding on another teaser with some of the favorites I like to come through.
Ty’Son Williams OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — 1 unit (Bet September 26)
Williams is averaging 11 carries for 71 rushing yards per game on the young season, and gets a cushy matchup against a poor Lions run defense as a large favorite. Baltimore should continue to lean heavily on the ground game, and likes to stay away from using Lamar Jackson too much unless they absolutely need him — like the SNF win over the Chiefs. In a game like this, a fresh body like Williams should see more work. The Lions gave up 131 on the ground in their home opener to a run first Niners offense.
UNDER 42 (-110) — 1.5 units (Bet September 21)
I was able to lock this one in at 43, but the number is on the decline. I think this one is playable to 42 in what should be a good chess match in Foxborough. The Saints have stayed under the number in both games so far this season, and are actually 5-0 to the under in their last five if we go back to last season.
New Orleans put up 38 points in Week 1 against the Packers, but I think that’s more of a reflection of the Green Bay defense, and the Saints often getting possession with a short field. Jameis Winston threw for less than 150 yards with five touchdown passes — a stat line he’ll likely never replicate. NOLA scored just seven points in its first true road game of the season in Carolina, and we saw that offense really struggle to move the ball without being gifted red zone chances.
The Saints are down some pieces on defense, but against a New England offense that refuses to throw deep, I don’t think it’ll factor in much. Mac Jones has been solid to begin his career, but he also hasn’t dazzled with any big plays. His team is averaging a very bland 20.5 points per game, and that number is a bit misleading. The Patriots being handed free points thanks to four Zach Wilson interceptions, and still hung just 25 on the Jets.
Meanwhile, the Pats have been locked in on defense, giving up just 23 points through two games. Unders have been a trend in the post-Brady era, going under in five of the last seven at home, and eight of the last 10 overall. Sean Payton and Bill Belichick will both enjoy a good chess match here, leaving us with a potential grinder.
OVER 55 (-110) — 1.5 units (Bet September 21)
This is a really tough game to pick a side, but I am pretty confident we’ll see some points on the board. The Vikings might be 0-2, but that’s on their defense. The offense has put this team in position to win both games, and easily could have.
Besides going over the total in both games this season by a combined 20 points, Minnesota has cashed the over in five straight games dating back to last season. The Vikes are actually 8-1 to the over in their last nine at home, and welcome a high powered offense to face their weak defense.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are putting up 29 points per game through two weeks, and are coming off a 63-point barn burner of a home loss to the Titans. Both of these teams lost on the final play of the game last week in games that went well over the total. Maybe that inflated this line a little bit, but I still don’t think it’s high enough for the type of track meet this has the potential to turn into.
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