There’s no worse feeling in life than getting 95% of the way through something only to screw up and have to start over. It doesn’t matter if it’s video games or IKEA furniture, it’s a universal disappointment that I wish upon no one. Well, last Wednesday, for the first time all season, I went 0-3 on article plays, and I sort of feel like the kid running to hit the restart button on his NES. We’re still sitting pretty for the season with a record of 42-23, but I certainly didn’t love coming up empty.
With that in mind, let’s get back on track tonight. Here are my three favorite MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs
Over 7 (-110)
I may end up looking really dumb on this one, but after all the talk of the wind at Wrigley keeping Tuesday’s game low scoring, that contest finished with 14 combined runs between the Cubs and the Twins. While I’ll admit that the prospect of 30 mph wind gusts sounds daunting, Minnesota is a little like the United States Postal Service in that neither rain, nor snow, nor sleet, nor hail shall keep it from hitting the over. In fact, after yesterday’s 9-5 victory, the Twins have now hit the over in a whopping 58.3% of their games in 2021 — the highest ratio of all MLB teams.
Also making me question the under in this spot is the presence of Kyle Hendricks, who just looks like he wants this season to be finished. The veteran has looked absolutely cooked in his past seven outings, pitching to a 9.08 ERA and a 6.24 FIP. On top of that, he’s allowed opponents to bat .315 with a .405 wOBA within that span of time. Considering Minnesota owns the league’s sixth-highest ISO across the past 14 days (.202), I’ll assume that the Twins possess more than enough power to take advantage of the RHP’s recent struggles.
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Ian Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
I just don’t see the logic in this line. While Anderson did fail to record even a single strikeout in both of his first two starts coming off the IL, he’s managed to rack up 16 over 10.2 innings in his last two games. For those of you at home without a calculator, that equates out to a massive 34.8% strikeout rate. It’s not like this is all small sample noise, either. Anderson’s managed at least five strikeouts in 14 of his 22 outings in 2021 and, for his career, the right-hander has registered 9.45 strikeouts per nine and a 24.8% strikeout rate. Even in the most pessimistic viewpoint, Anderson is a slightly above-average swing and miss guy.
The Diamondbacks make for a pretty enticing opponent, too. Arizona has struck out in 24.8% of its plate appearances the past two weeks, a span of time in which the team owns baseball’s fourth-highest called strike plus swinging strike rate (28.9%). The Diamondbacks also sport an ugly 79 wRC+ within that stretch, which likely means Anderson will be able to work deep into tonight’s contest.
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New York Mets at Boston Red Sox
Chris Sale Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
There are a few things to consider when betting this prop. First and foremost, Chris Sale is a very good pitcher. Though a career-high .325 BABIP hasn’t been helping his case through his first six outings of 2021, Sale’s advanced numbers are right in line with what we’ve come to expect from the former All-Star. To wit, his .228 expected opponent batting average is well below his actual opponent batting average of .267. That’s because the lefty is only allowing an average exit velocity of 83.6 mph — a mark that would be lowest in baseball among starters if Sale had the innings to qualify.
Another factor that leans towards the under tonight is the Mets’ general inability to hit left-handed pitching. The team comes into Wednesday with a paltry .707 OPS within the split — the seventh-lowest figure in MLB. A huge reason for New York’s struggles has been roster construction, as the Mets have taken the seventh-most left-on-left plate appearances in the league (593). They simply have too many LHBs to completely fade left-on-left matchups, which is not what you want with Sale on the mound, as left-handed hitters are justifiably 1-for-15 against the 32-year-old in 2021.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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