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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 3

Stan Son gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

We have another interesting week with six games having a total of at least 50 points. The Buccaneers-Rams game has already been bet up two points, so there are plenty of good environments and pivots. Will it be a repeat of last week when most flocked to the Chargers-Cowboys game? Or will recency bias rule the day and leave that Buccaneers-Rams matchup lower owned? Things that make you go hmmmm.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $4.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions, $7,800 — I have a feeling that Lamar goes under-owned this weekend despite his bonkers game last week. If paying up, most will likely go up to Kyler Murray ($8,300) or Patrick Mahomes ($8,200), while Russell Wilson ($7,600) and Tom Brady ($6,800) are both cheaper.

The Ravens are favored by 7.5 points over the Lions and have an implied total of 28.25 points. This game has a healthy game total of 50.

Lamar has been a favorite by more than seven points 21 times in his career. In those games, he’s averaged 27.7 DKFP and, according to FantasyLabs, had a plus/minus of 6.57 points and a consistency rating of 81%. He’s also gone over 30.0 DKFP 10 times in those contests.

So far in two games this season, the Lions are 29th in rush defense DVOA and dead-last in pass defense DVOA. The Lions have shown to be competent on offense, so there’s a chance they can do enough to keep the Ravens offense from turtling up. The Ravens are 24th in pass defense DVOA over two games and 24th in adjusted sack rate.

Other Option – Russell Wilson ($7,600)

Value

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks, $6,300 — In two games so far, Cousins has gone 36-of-49 for 351 yards and two touchdowns and 22-of-32 for 244 yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings would like to run Dalvin Cook ($8,400) and play defense, but the Seahawks will likely be scoring points in this one, forcing the Vikings to keep pace. This game has a total of 55.5 — the highest on the slate.

Both defenses are in the bottom-third of the league pass defense DVOA, while the rush defense numbers are 17th for the Vikings and 20th for the Seahawks. The Vikings are second in adjusted sack rate, though, while the Seahawks are 13th.

According to PFF, the Vikings have the fourth-best pass offense, with the Seahawks at eight.

Other Option – Jalen Hurts ($6,800)



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Running Back

Stud

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks, $8,400 — Well, I guess I’m stacking the Vikings! One of them is going to go off. As always, my lineups will depend on projected ownership and I can see scenarios in which this game fails, but it looks juicy to me right now.

Once again, the total is 55.5. Over the past three seasons, Cook has played in nine games with a total of between 50 and 60 points. He’s averaged 25.62 DKFP in those games. The high was 42.2 points and he’s failed to score at least 19.0 DKFP only once.

He will likely get around 20 carries on the ground and he’s far from a zero in the passing game. The floor/ceiling combo is one of the highest on the slate.

Value

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs, $7,200 – Ekeler will likely be the most popular running back this weekend and for good reason. He has a high floor due to his pass-catching abilities and the matchup is fantastic.

The Chiefs are dead-last in rush defense DVOA and 27th in defending the pass to running backs.

In his career, Ekeler has faced the Chiefs six times and averaged 17.25 DKFP. Keep in mind that he was never the guy. There is some merit to fading him, as the snap share has only been 58% and 63% in the first two games, respectively; yet, having said that, he is 10th in red zone opportunities.

Projected ownership will dictate how I approach Ekeler this weekend.

Other Options – Jonathan Taylor ($6,700), Najee Harris ($6,600)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks, $6,700 — If I like Cousins as a value quarterback then you better believe I’m going to like his wide receivers as well. I side with Thielen over Justin Jefferson ($7,200) in this matchup because the Seahawks play more zone defense than man, which is where Thielen excels.

It’s a tiny sample size, but last year, Jefferson put up 5.3 DKFP versus Seattle, while Thielen went for 29.3 DKFP.

Other Options – Cooper Kupp ($6,800), DK Metcalf ($7,300)

Value

Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,700 – The Buccaneers’ run defense has been one of the best over the past few years, so teams end up passing more against them. Last season, Jared Goff threw 51 times against the Bucs. Two years ago, he attempted a whopping 68 passes in a game that saw a combined 95 points between the two teams. I think many are expecting a similar outcome for this game.

If the Rams do rely on the pass as expected, the target tree is fairly condensed. Cooper Kupp has 21 targets on the season, while Woods has 13. No other player has more than seven.

In the two games against Tampa Bay over the last two seasons, Kupp has registered 11 catches for 145 yards on 13 targets and nine catches for 121 yards with a touchdown on 15 targets. Meanwhile, Woods went 13 catches for 164 yards on 15 targets and 12 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets.

Both of these teams have great defenses, but the offenses are both elite. I’m hoping that recency bias from last weekend’s Chargers-Cowboys game seeps into many this week and the ownership levels are depressed for this game.

Other Options – Tee Higgins ($5,100)


Tight End

Stud

TJ Hockenson, Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens, $5,200 – Yes, unless the ownership is low on Travis Kelce ($8,200), I’m fading him. In 13 games against the Chargers, he’s averaged 10.02 DKFP with a -3.44 plus/minus and 30.8% consistency rating per FantasyLabs. Can he pop off? Sure, as he’s gone for over 20.0 DKFP in two of his last three games against Los Angeles. That said, he’s gone under 10.0 DKFP in seven of those 13 contests.

Hockenson will likely be highly owned since he’s caught eight passes in both of his first two games and also hauled in a touchdown in each. He’s garnered nine and 10 targets, respectively. If the projected ownership gets too high, then I will think about pivoting, but as of now, the situation looks ripe.

The Ravens are likely going to put up a ton of points in this one. If so, then ‘Garbage Time Goff’ will make an appearance. Again. He’s attempted 36 and 57 passes in the first two games.

Baltimore was 22nd in DVOA against tight ends last season and are 25th this year.

Other Options – Kyle Pitts ($4,900)

Value

Gerald Everett, Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, $3,000 – I know, gross. He’s only received two targets in each of the first two games. He did score a touchdown in one, though. That said, the game environment could be a juicy one and the Vikings are 27th in DVOA against tight ends this season.

Other Options – Mike Gesicki ($3,800)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints, $4,100 – Who’s the starting quarterback for the Saints? Riiiight. The Patriots have the 10th-highest pass rush score according to PFF and the sixth-highest coverage score.

Jameis Winston ($5,600) threw two interceptions last week and is always in play for five.

This is not a smash play by any means, since the price is elevated and Winston has only thrown 42 times total in two games this season. That said, give me Bill Belichick against Jameis Winston any day of the week.

Other Option – Broncos ($4,300)

Value

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,000 – The Cardinals offense is going to score points in this one. They’re implied for nearly 30 points. As a result, the Jaguars are going to have to keep pace.

Arizona is second in pass rush according to PFF and ninth in coverage. Trevor Lawrence ($5,500) is going to be a good one, but he’s still a rookie prone to mistakes. The opportunities for sacks and turnovers should be there for this defense.

Other Option – Browns ($3,200)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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