The NFL futures market is a fascinating one. We get the entire summer to examine the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and get our bets in. And then, just like that, the product on the field begins, and everything changes. What we see on a week-to-week basis in the NFL causes plenty of movement in the futures market, so let’s take a look at some of those notable odds on the move this week.
The MVP market has seen some legit movement at the top of the board as well as with a few long shots in the early going. Kyler Murray is averaging over 36 fantasy points per game through the first two contests of the season, and has the Cardinals at 2-0. You see Murray has more than cut his odds in half since opening at +1600, and is tied for second on the board at +750 with the timeless Tom Brady.
While Patrick Mahomes remains the favorite at +550, watch for Brady to potentially makeup some ground. The Bucs have a huge road game against the Rams this week, and if they wind up 3-0 heading into New England on Sunday night in Week 4, then watch out. TB12 likely puts up a monster game with the entire world watching to improve to 4-0.
As for Kyler, the Cardinals might be for real, but we also saw a hot start last year. Arizona was a trendy team entering 2020, and if you bet Murray for MVP, you actually could’ve cashed out for slight profit in November. We’ll see if he can have a good December and January this time around.
Teddy Bridgewater and Jalen Hurts made a little bit of early noise, but the Eagles’ loss in Week 2 calmed most of the hype on Hurts. I don’t think Bridgewater is a real candidate, but the Broncos are 2-0 and the largest favorite in Week 3. If this team rattles off a couple more wins, it might be worth cashing out a ticket.
It appears the Week 1 hype on Jameis Winston was just a flash in the pan. After jumping from +4000 to +2500 with a win over the Packers, it only took one loss to drop Jameis below his previous odds (now +5000).
Derek Carr is the most interesting name on the board. He looked awful in the first half of the Week 1 MNF opener against Baltimore. But by the end of the game he’d put up huge numbers in an OT win. Still, his odds remained unchanged. But a Week 2 win in Pittsburgh seems to have really changed bettors’ minds. Carr leads the NFL in passing yards and jumped from +6600 to +2500 in just one week.
We have 10 names listed above, but it feels like only four matter right now. That’d be the four rookie quarterbacks that are starting in Week 3, which also happen to be the only four with 15% or more of the handle.
If you watched Zach Wilson throw four interceptions for the hopeless Jets in a loss to the Patriots, it’s tough to put your money there. The drop down to +1800 still doesn’t warrant a bet there for me.
Trevor Lawrence has slid down the board a bit more in Week 3. I’m not saying he doesn’t have the talent to win the award, but the lack of talent in Jacksonville could be too much for him to overcome in a good rookie class. I expect Lawrence to improve, but I need to see it, or get longer odds on the No. 1 pick to back him.
Mac Jones seems to have the sharp money on him. Generally speaking, Jones and Lawrence have the same handle, but with half the amount of tickets on Mac. Jones won’t blow you away with stats this season, but the argument remains the same. If Jones plays solid for a playoff contender, that’ll carry weight.
Justin Fields is the sexy name of the week, finally getting the start in Week 3. No, the Bears haven’t come to their senses, but Andy Dalton is hurt. This is Fields’ shot to simply take the job from Dalton based on performance. If he can do that, he’s going to be worth a bet very quickly. I don’t think the Bears will be as good as the Patriots this season, but Fields has the ability to put up much bigger numbers than Jones, particularly with his rushing ability.
The Super Bowl odds kind of speak for themselves, but are worth sharing. These odds also unsurprisingly have similar risers to the MVP race — the Raiders (Carr), Broncos (Bridgewater) and Buccaneers (Brady) all lead the list.
I feel it’s too early to buy the hype on those AFC West teams, especially playing in a division with the Chiefs. I’ve been saying all offseason that I think the Bucs are going to be something special, and I’m not changing my opinion now. Honorable mention to the Panthers, really jumping up the board. Again, tough path being in Tampa’s division, but this could be a sneaky playoff team.
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