Week 3 has arrived, folks. After a huge week for underdogs in Week 1, the favorites came back with a vengeance in Week 2. The tally on the season now has favorites straight up at 18-14. The favorites continue to struggle to cover the spread however, doing so just 34.4% of the time at 11-21. The under also has a slight advantage on the season thus far, hitting 53.1% of the time.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Denver Broncos (-800; -10.5) vs. New York Jets (+425)
Betting trends:
Broncos 2021 home record: 0-0
Broncos 2021 home record when favored: 0-0
Broncos 2021 ATS record: 2-0
Broncos 2021 ATS record when favored: 2-0
Jets 2021 road record: 0-1
Jets 2021 road record as underdogs: 0-1
Jets 2021 ATS record: 0-2
Jets 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 0-2
The Broncos are not only the biggest favorite on this slate but the only game that has a spread in the double-digits. The closest games after that are two at -7.5 with the Bills favored over the Washington Football Team and the Ravens over the Lions. This line has moved quite a bit, as you could have gotten the Broncos at -7.5 last week. We’ve seen this line touch -11 as well, as people clearly have zero faith in the Jets through the first two weeks and rightfully so. In the two losses taken by the Jets to start the season, they’ve failed to cover the spread by an average of -7.5.
One of the biggest issues for the Jets thus far has been getting protection for Zach Wilson ($5,000). Wilson has been under pressure on exactly 50% of his 82 drop backs. That’s lead to a 30% completion percentage (50% adjusted) 6.2 YPA and one of his five interceptions. He’s only thrown for two touchdowns as well, which is not a good ratio you want to see. To that end, the Broncos pass rush has not been anything special thus far and rank near the bottom of the league. In Week 1, Daniel Jones ($5,800) was only under pressure on 25% of his dropbacks while Trevor Lawrence ($5,500) was on 30.6%. So while Wilson may not been under as much pressure as seen, he now has to deal with a Broncos secondary that’s been solid in coverage. They’ve held opposing receivers to an average of just 192 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns. Rookie corner Patrick Surtain II had a really good game last week against the Jaguars, holding the Jags to an average of 10 YPR on three catches. He’ll be matched up against Corey Davis ($5,000). With how well Teddy Bridgewater ($5,800) is throwing the ball and the Jets run defense giving up a ton of yardage, this should be an easy spot for the Broncos.
Other notable favorites: Baltimore Ravens (-425; -7.5) at Detroit Lions (+320), Arizona Cardinals (-380; -7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+290)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-125; -1.5) at Los Angeles Rams (+105) Over/Under: 56.5
Betting trends:
Buccaneers 2021 road record: 0-0
Buccaneers 2021 road record as favorites: 0-0
Buccaneers 2021 Over/Under record: 2-0
Buccaneers 2021 Over/Under record when favorites: 2-0
Rams 2021 home record: 1-0
Rams 2021 home record as favorites: 1-0
Rams 2021 Over/Under record: 2-0
Rams 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 2-0
The total for this game has been a rocket ship since last week. Once upon a time (last week) the over/under on this game was set at 52. As I write this Thursday morning, it currently sits at 56.5. Both teams, as mentioned, are 2-0 hitting the over on the game total but have done so to varying degrees. The Buccaneers have covered by an average of 14.2 points while the Rams only by 2.8. Both of these teams have been playing at a slower pace by the rest of the league standards. The Bucs have run an average of 62 plays per game (18th) while the Rams are near the bottom of the league at 55 (T-28th). That said, the Bucs are also throwing the ball the second-most in the league, doing so 71.8% of the time compared to the Rams at 52.7%.
On the surface, these should be tough, defensive teams. However, both of taken their share of licks as of late. The Rams secondary, in particular, had a tough game against the Colts last week. They allowed 171 yards to their receivers on 14 catches for an average of 12.2 YPR. Michael Pittman Jr ($5,500) in particular had a huge game, catching eight balls for 123 yards. The Bucs held the Falcons receivers to just 129 yards but that’s a week after giving up 303 on 27 receptions to the Cowboys. CB Ross Cockrell in particular has had a really tough start to the season, allowing 12-of-14 targets to be caught for 123 yards. He’s expected to line up against Cooper Kupp ($6,800), who is fresh off a nine-catch, 163 yard and two touchdown game against the Colts.
I’m extremely torn on this total with it climbing as high as it is. I would hate to sweat the under on this one with how dynamic these offenses have been but with that said, I think this is a stay away spot from me.
Other notable totals: Seattle Seahawks (-130; -1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (+110) O/U 55, Los Angeles Chargers (+260) at Kansas City Chiefs (-335; -6.5) O/U 54.5
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NFL Week 3 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under. For the first two weeks, this will feature 2020 records. At the beginning of Week 3, we’ll switch over to the 2021 record.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, $7,600 — Another week to be targeting against the Vikings secondary is upon us. It worked out extremely well in Week 2, as we watched Kyler Murray ($8,300) throw for 400 yards, three touchdowns and rush for another. Now they have to try and stop Wilson, who has been quietly averaged 298.5 passing yards, a 74.1% completion percentage and 26.7 DKFP through his first two games. A lot of focus have been on other quarterbacks this season but Wilson has been as advertised. The Vikings pass rush has been nearly nonexistent and we’ve already seen Wilson work with a clean pocket on 61.5% of his dropbacks. In those scenarios, he’s averaged 11.8 YPA, an 81.6% completion (83.8% adjusted) and three of his six touchdowns. He should have all day to throw in what’s expected to be a very high scoring game in Minnesota.
Player props for Russell Wilson on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Passing Yards: 285.5 (over -115 under -115)
Passing TDs: 1.5 (over -215 under +165)
Pass + Rush Yards: 314.5 (over -115 under -115)
Pass attempts: 37.5 (over -105 under -125)
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings, $7,400 — The hardest part is to figure out which receiver to pair Wilson with. Lockett has been the biggest producer between him and DK Metcalf ($7,300) thus far, despite only a $100 in salary difference. That said, I love the matchup that Lockett will draw against CB Bashaud Breeland. He hasn’t exactly made the best first impression with his new team, as he’s been targeted against 12 times and has allowed nine receptions for 155 yards, which is an average of 17.2 YPR. He’s also been scored on three times already, which is the most amongst all corners in the league. Nine players are currently tied with two touchdowns against. For reference, Breeland was only scored on five times last season on 43 receptions.
Player props for Tyler Lockett on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Receptions: 5.5 (over -135 under +100)
Receiving Yards: 74.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest Receptions: 25.5 (over -110 under -125)
Top Running Back To Consider
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs , $7,200 — I think this is a great spot for Ekeler, who caught all nine of his targets last week against the Cowboys. He had 18 touches last week for a total of 115 yards and 22.5 DKFP. This could be another matchup where he’s at or near that target distribution against a team he’s found success against in the past. Dating back to 2018, Ekeler has averaged 20.3 DKFP against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have allowed 116+ rushing yards in both games with four rushing touchdowns against the Browns and Ravens. Ekeler is averaging 20.8% of the red zone opportunities thus far, trailing only slightly behind Mike Williams ($6,400).
Player props for Austin Ekeler on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Rushing Yards: 56.5 (over -110 under -120)
Receiving Yards: 37.5 (over -115 under -115)
Receptions: 5.5 (over +115 under -155)
Rush + Receiving Yards: 98.5 (over -115 under -115)
Rushing Attempts: 13.5 (over -110 under -120)
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