It’s Week 3 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be betting on Justin Fields’ debut, along with a few skill position players in favorable matchups. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns
Justin Fields under 54.5 rushing yards (-110)
I love Justin Fields, and I think he is destined for greatness in the NFL. While this bet seems like I’m fading him in his debut, it’s quite the opposite. No, I believe in Fields’ ability to throw the ball, and I recognize that he’s not a “dual threat” quarterback like everyone makes him out to be.
Yes, Fields can run, but he doesn’t normally run. At Ohio State, he was a pocket passer, and in the preseason this year he rushed nine times in essentially four quarters of football. Coming off 10 rushing attempts in Week 2, the natural inclination is to bet on Fields to light it up on the ground, but I don’t see that happening. He rushed for just over three yards per carry last week, and even if he gets a dozen or so rushing attempts, he might still have issues hitting this lofty number. Wait until this line comes down in a few weeks to take the over.
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New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons
Saquon Barkley over 61.5 rushing yards (-115)
I realize Barkley isn’t exactly up to speed following his catastrophic injury last season, but this is the Falcons. Furthermore, this is Saquon Barkley. Even at 75%, he’s going to be relied upon heavily.
Barkley played 84% of the snaps last week for the Giants, which ranked second in all of football. The Falcons defense also remains one of the worst in the game, and ranks 27th in DVOA against the rush. I anticipate the Giants trying to force-feed their best offensive weapon early, and perhaps going back to him in the fourth quarter with a lead over Atlanta.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Michael Carter over 29.5 rushing yards
We will continue with the rushing props and go to Michael Carter, who looked incredible in Week 2 for a Jets team that was held back by Zach Wilson. It seemed likely that Carter would have to wait several weeks to finally surpass Tevin Coleman on the Jets’ depth chart, but he appears to have endeared himself to the coaching staff much quicker than that.
Carter took the ball 11 times in Week 2 and carried for 59 yards, and with that kind of rushing ability against one of the league’s stronger defenses to this point, he should be able to find a way through Denver, which ranks 10th in weighted DVOA this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer +140
Godwin has scored in each of the past two weeks, and seems to be taking on the Mike Evans role this year as Tom Brady’s favorite target down near the end zone. The big, tall wideout is tied for the league lead with six red zone targets this season, and should be a safe bet to get in once again against a Rams secondary that has looked a little suspect in the early going after losing a few key pieces like John Johnson III. I expect a pass-heavy attack from the Bucs, and the oddsmakers do too, with Brady’s passing total set at 310.5 yards. Godwin should be heavily involved and I like just about every prop on him this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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