Saturday features a nine-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets ($10,600) — In all fairness to the Mets, they’re not the only team that has given up. It’s a time honored tradition for Major League teams to take their foot off the pedal at the end of the long season. The Mets have a .307 wOBA and .154 ISO over the last two weeks, and they’ve lost eight of the last 10 games. Corbin Burnes currently sits as the second favorite to win the Cy Young, and he’s not too far behind Max Scherzer. If Burnes closest out with two dynamic starts, then he could win the award. Step one is putting on a show against the Mets. Step two is a possible head-to-head matchup against Scherzer next Friday night — get your popcorn ready!
Other Option: Clayton Kershaw ($9,800)
Chris Ellis, Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers ($6,600) — The 29-year-old has finally made it to the big leagues and he’s looked good in a little over a month’s worth of action. In his last four starts, he’s been asked to pitch against the Yankees twice and the Blue Jays twice; that’s no small task. Across those 19 innings, he has a 1.86 ERA. At this point, you might be asking, “Why is he so cheap?” Regression is coming. His xFIP is 6.80 and he’s carrying an unsustainable .161 BABIP. At Baltimore, his 52.6% fly ball rate, 13% K rate and 13 % BB rate should get him into trouble, but it hasn’t so far and Saturday night will be one of his easiest opponents. The Rangers have an 86 wRC+, .294 wOBA, .148 ISO and a 24% K rate against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Jordan Lyles ($6,200)
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies ($5,000) — Last night, the Giants’ implied team total was seven runs, and wouldn’t you know it, they scored seven runs and earned their 100th win of the season. They’re back in Coors tonight and their implied team total is a healthy six runs. Posey has a .363 wOBA, .183 ISO and 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and after Jon Gray ($6,000) exits, Posey will face one of the worst bullpens in baseball (4.96 ERA).
Other Option: Keibert Ruiz ($4,500)
Jose Trevino, Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles ($2,200) — If DFS players can save money at catcher, then they likely won’t need to save salary at pitcher. As mentioned earlier, Chris Ellis is giving up a ton of fly balls and pitching to a lot of contact. Just like Ellis, there is a reason that Trevino is cheap, but something has got to give in this matchup.
Other Option: Travis d’Arnaud ($3,800)
Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals ($5,800) — The Reds season may be over, but Votto still bangs! Gone are the days of choking up and back are the 30-home-run seasons of yesteryear. It’s hard to find a player in a better spot. Votto is crushing right-handed pitching (.428 wOBA, .344 ISO, 165 wRC+ and a 45% hard contact rate) and Erick Fedde ($8,000) is getting crushed by lefties (.356 wOBA, .200 ISO, 38% hard contact rate and 1.9 HR/9), and this game is in Cincinnati.
EDITOR’S NOTE: Joey Votto (knee) has been scratched from the lineup for tonight’s game vs. the Nationals.
Other Option: Brandon Belt ($5,000)
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers ($4,300) — Randy Arozarena looks like he’s got the AL Rookie of the Year award wrapped up, as Mountcastle is a distant second on DraftKings Sportsbook, However, a matchup against A.J. Alexy ($6,600) — possible long reliever — could close the gap. In a handful of appearances, Alexy has allowed a .380 wOBA, .286 ISO, 2.8 HR/9, 23% BB rate and an incredible 70% fly ball rate. Not to mention, the wind is projected to be blowing out towards leftfield on Saturday night. Jordan Lyles ($6,200) is scheduled to start, and he’s not much better — 5.36 ERA and 2.0 HR/9 in 136 innings.
Other Option: C.J. Cron ($3,600)
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Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres ($5,100) — Vince Velasquez ($7,000) joining the Padres perfectly sums up the end of San Diego’s season. This team collapsed and nothing better represents that than having to rely on Velasquez as a starter. In his two starts, he’s pitched a total of five innings and allowed six earned runs off of six hits and two home runs. Albies has a .221 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Other Option: Jonathan India ($5,500)
Luis García, Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds ($3,400) — Fun fact: there are three Luis García’s in MLB. Great American Ball Park is a park upgrade and García has been hitting for power in September (.218 ISO). Vladimir Gutierrez ($8,200) has been torched by left-handed batters this season — .351 wOBA, .262 ISO, 35% hard contact rate and 2.2 HR/9.
Other Option: Brendan Rodgers ($3,900)
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres ($4,800) — Kris Bryant ($5,400) at Coors is intriguing, but picking on the Padres and saving some salary seems like the better option. Vince Velasquez is a mess and so is the Padres bullpen — fifth-worst ERA (5.26) and sixth-worst xFIP (4.88) over the last 30 days.
Other Option: Kris Bryant ($5,400)
Dylan Moore, Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels ($3,400) — All of his 2021 stats are terrible except for his 21 stolen bases, but he’s starting to turn it around. Over his last 10 starts, he has a .352 wOBA and he’s scored seven runs. He draws a favorable matchup against Jaime Barria ($5,200).
Other Option: Ryan McMahon ($4,300)
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves ($6,100) — It’s stat stuffing time. To little surprise, Tatis has turned out to be more flash than substance. He may still be the next generation of baseball player, but that next generation is about the individual and not the team. The Cardinals are the old face of baseball, and all they have done this month is win. Tatis will look to improve his gaudy numbers against right-handed pitching — .415 wOBA, .343 ISO, 165 wRC+ and a 49% hard contact rate — against a right-handed pitcher, Huascar Ynoa ($8,800), that allows a lot of power — .194 ISO and 1.7 HR/9.
Other Option: Brandon Crawford ($5,500)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles ($3,400) — Over the last seven days, Kiner-Falefa has 12 hits and three stolen bases (.424 wOBA and a 5% swinging strike rate). A game against Baltimore means a park upgrade, a matchup with a starting pitcher due for regression and at-bats against the second-worst bullpen in baseball (4.75 xFIP).
Other Option: Kyle Farmer ($4,400)
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks ($5,200) — For the BvP folks, Betts has four hits in eight at-bats against Zac Gallen ($8,600) — small sample size alert — and one of those hits was a home run. The numbers make sense because Gallen is allowing a .324 wOBA, .249 ISO, 45% hard contact rate and 2.2 HR/9 to right-handed batters.
Other Option: Juan Soto ($6,200)
Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays ($2,300) — Saturday night might not be the best place to roster Gordon in a matchup with Robbie Ray ($10,400). However, it is worth pointing out that Gordon is on fire at the moment, so even if he is not the play tonight, put him on your radar. Over the last seven days, Gordon has the seventh-best wOBA (.520). He’s collected 10 hits (two doubles and two home runs), 8 RBIs and stolen two bases over that span.
Other Option: Austin Hays ($3,400)
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