The MLB regular season is winding down, but there are 15 games to choose from on Saturday. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Under 7.5 runs (-120)
The Mets have been an under machine all season. The under has gone 79-63-9 in Mets games this season, making them the third-most profitable under team in baseball this season. Only the Tigers and Rockies have won under bettors more money this year.
Rich Hill will get the ball for the Mets in this contest, and the under has gone a ridiculous 8-1-1 in his 10 starts with the Mets. That’s a ridiculous number. He should be able to deliver another strong performance vs. the Brewers, who rank just 26th in wRC+ vs. southpaws this season.
As for the Mets’ offense, they’ve been a disaster all season. They have virtually no chance against Corbin Burnes, who has been an absolute monster this season. He owns a 2.34 ERA and a 1.56 FIP, and he’s also posted a 12.59 K/9. He’s one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young, and a dominant performance vs. the Mets will only help his cause.
Padres ML (+100)
Are the Padres a sinking ship? Maybe. Outside of the very public confrontation between Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, they’ve also managed to slip nearly all the way out of the playoff picture. Part of that is due to the Cardinals’ insane win streak – they’ve won each of their past 14 contests – but the Padres are just 3-7 over their past 10 games. Their elimination number is down to two games, meaning the Padres basically have to be perfect to have any chance of making the postseason.
Still, the Padres are still undoubtedly a good team. They have amassed plenty of offensive talent, so I like the idea of backing them as home underdogs. They’re taking on Huascar Ynoa, who is a middling pitcher. He’s posted a 3.56 FIP this season, but his numbers have slipped a bit over the second half of the year. He’s also been far worse on the road this season, pitching to a 4.46 ERA outside of Atlanta.
Rockies ML (+125)
The Rockies have quietly turned things around after a disastrous start to the year. They made the somewhat curious decision not to trade Trevor Story and Jon Gray at the trade deadline, which has allowed them to post a winning record since the start of June.
The Rockies have also been a dominant home team all season. They’ve posted a 46-30 record at Coors Field, making them easily the most profitable home team in the league for bettors. That includes a record of 24-24 as an underdog, and a winning percentage of 50% is more than acceptable when you’re getting better than even money.
Gray has been arguably their best pitcher this season, and he has been at his best at Coors. He’s pitched to a 3.79 ERA over 73 2/3 innings, and he’s limited opposing batters to a .279 wOBA. The Giants are a really good team, but I’ll roll the dice with the Rockies in this spot.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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