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Fantasy Football Picks: Packers vs. 49ers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Reid Fowler preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Packers and the 49ers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

The Green Bay Packers travel west to take on the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in primetime for Sunday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers ($17,700 CP, $11,800) returns home to the Bay Area and looks to build off his four-touchdown performance last week. For the second year in a row, the 49ers are dealing with injuries that they’ll have to overcome early in the season.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Showdown Special [$500K to 1st] (GB vs SF)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Aaron Rodgers ($17,700 CP) - We should expect more zone coverage with a two-high safety, which means a lot of production should pile up early and often like last week. The loss of Jason Verrett doesn’t help a defense that hasn’t been great at stopping opposing quarterbacks, giving up the sixth-most DKFP per game (27.4) this season. Rodgers has faced the 49ers eight times in his career and has a 9:1 TD:INT ratio.

George Kittle ($12,300 CP) - With uncertainty in the 49ers’ backfield, we should expect the offense to feature their star tight end in primetime. Kittle’s lack of production is not all that bad. Last week, Shanahan dialed up 38 run plays to 30 pass plays, and Kittle recorded the second-highest target share behind Deebo Samuel ($14,100 CP, $9,400) at 17.4%. The game script needs to skew pass-heavy for Kittle to hit his ceiling numbers, and this week feels like a confluence of events where he could go off — minimal production in the first two games, 49ers running backs injured and a more pass-heavy game with the point total sitting at 50.5. Kittle should again operate as the second option for the 49ers’ passing game against a Packers defense that ranks third in DKFP given up per game to opposing tight ends this season.


FLEX Plays

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,600) - His four targets and zero catches last week don’t tell the entire story. They paint a grim picture for MVS, but we shouldn’t completely fade him, especially when he ranks seventh in air yards share (44.9%), first in deep targets (6) and first in average target distance (21.1). Rodgers couldn’t connect with him against the Lions, but the opportunities were there. There should be a lot of shadow coverage and zone shifts toward Davante Adams ($17,100 CP, $11,400) and Aaron Jones ($16,800 CP, $11,200), leaving MVS to beat his man, which he’s been doing. All it takes is one of those deep targets to connect, and he’ll outperform expectations and his salary by a good margin.

Trey Sermon ($3,000) - Injuries have decimated the running back room, and RB Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is doubtful for Sunday night. Pending we get word Sermon’s either the starter or active, his price is low enough to consider, especially if you want to stack the expensive players at the top. We’ve only seen one snap from Sermon, so this is a punt play, but it could gain you some leverage.


Fades

Deebo Samuel ($14,100 CP; $9,400) - Samuel’s been one of the best wide receivers this season, totaling 20 targets, 15 catches and 282 receiving yards. While the Green Bay defense isn’t one to fear, cornerback Jaire Alexander is. One-third of Samuel’s snaps should be against Alexander, and that’s enough to fade Samuel at his price. He and Kittle have a negative correlation, and potentially having Kittle in our lineups at depressed roster percentage is the tournament leverage we should want.


THE OUTCOME

The 49ers want to slow the game down, but with little depth and experience in their backfield, they could resort to passing it a little more than they want to, playing right into the Packers’ potential game plan. Still, the injuries to the Green Bay Packers with Zadarius Smith on the defensive front and Elgton Jenkins on the offensive line both out may be too much for the Packers to overcome on a short week.

Final Score: San Francisco 49ers 24, Green Bay Backers 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Showdown Special [$500K to 1st] (GB vs SF)


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


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