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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 29

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

We have a huge slate Wednesday night that will continue an amazing playoff push by a number of teams. Let’s get into what to expect tonight.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Max Scherzer, $10,400, Los Angeles Dodgers (-310) vs. San Diego Padres (+245) — Since Scherzer has arrived in LA, he’s absolutely dominated (except his last time out) every team that he’s faced. Over the course of 10 starts in the Dodger blue, he’s thrown 63 innings and has produced a 1.56 FIP, a .195 wOBA, a 12.1 K/9 and a 0.4 HR/9. He had a rough go of it at Coors Field in his last start, allowing five runs through five innings and his numbers STILL look like this. For giggles, if we remove that start, Scherzer has a 1.35 FIP and a .180 wOBA since joining the Dodgers.

Now, he’s tasked with taking on the Padres, a team he has shutout in both of his starts against them through 15 23 innings. Scherzer has logged 19 strikeouts and only three hits allowed in those games, giving him an amazing 0.26 WHIP and a .061 batting average against. The Padres have nothing to play for at this point and quite frankly, that’s how they’ve been playing throughout the month of September. They’ve only scored more runs than the Angels and Twins and have one of the lowest ISO at .147. Naturally, they don’t pose much of a threat against Scherzer and he should be one of the most popular pitching options tonight.


Highest Projected Total

Boston Red Sox (-265; 5.5 runs) at Baltimore Orioles (+215; 3.5 runs) 9.5 runs — Despite almost a full slate of games tonight, the highest projected total still stays under that double-digit threshold. 9.5 runs is the biggest total of the night with the Red Sox big favorites against the Orioles and Zak Lowther ($5,000). Lowther has made nine appearances total, two of them as a starter. He’s been a starter in the minors but struggled to find much success, posting a 4.78 FIP with a 4.7 BB/9 through 30 1/3 innings in Triple-A. Aside from a strong start against the Rangers his last time out, Lowther has struggled to find any success in the majors as well, tossing 24 2/3 innings with a 5.75 FIP, a 4.7 BB/9 and a 1.8 HR/9.

With all this said, the Red Sox struggled to get much of anything going last night in a perceived easy matchup against Bruce Zimmermann. They lost their fourth game in a row when it matters the most and are not getting much production from the heart of their lineup. They hover around league average in most offensive categories against lefties, posting a .326 wOBA, a .160 ISO and a 102 wRC+ against them. They SHOULD be able to tee off against Lowther and a bullpen in the month of September that has a 5.20 FIP. But, we all felt that way yesterday as well. Nathan Eovaldi ($8,400) should be able to carry this team to a win but I’m not fully convinced this Red Sox offense is at a point where I can guarantee at least six runs.


Weather Notes

No weather concerns!


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Elieser Hernandez, .407, 8.48
Casey Mize, .354, 5.90
Taijuan Walker, .283, 4.62

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Rodon, .270, 1.46
Nathan Eovaldi, .280, 2.28
Drew Rasmussen, .252, 2.46


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Ryan Weathers, .366, 5.89
Zac Lowther, .355, 5.68
Daniel Lynch, .376, 5.20

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, .224, 2.55
Elieser Hernandez, .287, 2.59
Gerrit Cole, .251, 2.64


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Max Scherzer, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, $10,400 — This is not hard. Play Scherzer.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, $4,600 — I mentioned earlier that the Red Sox offense has been inconsistent as of late. One man who has NOT has been Renfroe. This guy is not just smashing the ball, he’s doing it against lefties. On the season, Renfroe is averaging 8.0 DKFP against them with a .380 wOBA, a .237 ISO and a 139 wRC+. Specifically through the second-half of the season, Renfroe has been hitting for a ton of power, which is evident by his .297 ISO over that span. At $4,600 in his preferred matchup, I love using Renfroe here.


Save Big by Drafting

Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $2,400 — We’ve used Gordon has a strong value play before and his salary still is extremely affordable. I love his matchup against Casey Mize ($5,700) who has some of the worst numbers on this slate against lefties. How bad you ask? How about a 5.90 FIP, a .354 wOBA and a 2.1 HR/9 bad? Gordon has admittedly cooled off a bit after a red hot start to the month of September but he doesn’t need to do much to reach 3x value on this $2,400 salary. He enters this game with a .315 wOBA, a .161 ISO and a 99 wRC+ against righties.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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