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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 4

Stan Son gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

We have four games with a total of at least 50 points on DraftKings Sportsbook but two of those games are between division rivals. The biggest line movements so far have been in the NYG-NO and DET-CHI games, as their totals have been bet down by 1.5 points and two points respectively to 42. Yuck. The Bills are favored by a whopping 16 points, the only spread in the double digits.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


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Quarterback

Stud

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles, $8,100 — This is not my favorite play at the position this week. In fact, I don’t want to pay up at quarterback, at least not now. Much will depend on projected ownership levels later in the week.

Josh Allen ($8,000) will have a good game but the ceiling may be capped because the Texans can be run on and the offense probably won’t be able to make it a back-and-forth affair. Kyler Murray ($7,800) has historically had difficulty against the Rams' defense. In four career games, he has a 75.8 quarterback rating, has thrown five touchdowns and four interceptions, has been sacked 11 times, has a 58.73% completion percentage and only rushed 13 times for 46 yards and a touchdown. That’s translated to 3.78, 18.42, 20 and 14.32 DKFP. Lamar Jackson ($7,500) is always in play due to his rushing prowess, but the Broncos' defense is very good and has a chance of stifling him to a degree. They also play that game in Denver.

If paying up, I’m going with Mahomes, but there’s even risk with him because of the porous Eagles run defense. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5,400) could have a big day. That said, Kansas City is 11th in situational neutral pass rate, as they throw 62% of the time. While the Eagles are 13th in pass defense DVOA, they are 18th against tight ends and 24th against No. 1 wide receivers. We just saw what the Cowboys' offense was able to do on Monday Night.

Now, the key will be Jalen Hurts ($6,900). He looked dreadful against the Cowboys but he’s a dual-threat quarterback and can explode at any time. If he can put up points, then Mahomes will respond and a fantasy ceiling can be accessed. Out of all the quarterbacks matched up against the high-priced quarterbacks, Hurts has the best chance to put pressure on the opposition.

Other Option – Josh Allen ($8,000)

Value

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns, $6,400 — Cousins is one of my favorite plays at the quarterback position. He’s thrown for 351, 244 and 323 yards with two, three and three touchdowns in three games this season. He’s completed 73%, 68% and 78% of his passes.

The Vikings prefer to run the ball and play defense but the Browns are fourth in rush defense DVOA and ninth in offensive points scored. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Vikings as home dogs (+2) with the O/U at 51.5 points so Cousins will likely have to huck-and-chuck to keep pace.

In his career as a Viking, Cousins has been a home dog in three contests. He’s scored 24.66, 21.44 and 28.12 DKFP in those games with an average ownership rate of 3.5%.

Other Option – Jalen Hurts ($6,900)


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Running Back

Stud

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at New York Jets, $8,800 — Everything lines up for Henry to smash this weekend. The Titans’ wide receiver group is banged up, they are favored by seven to 7.5 points and the Jets’ run defense is 25th according to PFF.

Henry has played in three games in which he was a road favorite by seven to 7.5 points. In those games, he put up 20.2, 39.2 and 39 DKFP. He has also been involved in the passing game, garnering four, six and three targets.

It’s football, though, and anything can happen. Ryan Tannehill ($6,300) can run one in or throw a short touchdown to the tight end. If the projected ownership gets too high, then there could be some merit to pivoting to another option, but as of now, Henry is the direction I lean if paying up.

Other Option – Alvin Kamara ($8,400)

There are a ton of solid options in the $6,000 range so there are many paths to take at the running back position this week.

Value

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles, $5,400 – According to PFF, the Eagles are 29th in rush defense. The Cowboys ran for 155 yards and two touchdowns against them on Monday Night Football.

After a quiet first two games, Edwards-Helaire rushed 17 times for 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. The Chargers play two-deep safeties in order to keep everything in front of them, so they invite short passes and rushes. How the Eagles defend the Chiefs will determine if the Edwards-Helaire has a big game or if Mahomes lights them up.

How about both?

Other Options – Chuba Hubbard ($5,900)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Cleveland Browns, $6,800/$7,300 — If I like Cousins as a value quarterback then you better believe I’m going to like his wide receivers as well. Despite the inclusion of K.J. Osborn ($3,700) into the offense due to injuries at the tight end position, the target tree is still fairly concentrated — Thielen (26 targets) and Jefferson (30 targets).

As mentioned in the Cousins section, the Browns boast one of the better run defense units in the league so plenty of passes should be thrown, with the majority of them going to these two.

From a matchup perspective, Greg Newsome has been the better cornerback over Denzel Ward. Newsome is allowing 0.13 fantasy points per route while Ward is at 0.28. Newsome also has a higher PFF grade. Both Newsome and Ward move around the formation and play both sides so one of Jefferson or Thielen will be attacking Ward. It’s just impossible to know which one.

Other Options – Cooper Kupp ($7,800)

Value

Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings, $5,800 – Can you guess which game I’m stacking? Beckham made his season debut last week after recovering from a torn ACL last season. He caught five of nine targets for 77 yards and did not look sluggish.

This game has a good chance of being a shootout and Beckham could be an integral part of it. Bashaud Breeland and Patrick Peterson are the boundary cornerbacks for the Vikings. They allow 0.72 and 0.37 fantasy points per route and are graded poorly by PFF.

The Vikings are 24th in pass defense DVOA and their offense should score plenty of points in this one, so Beckham should have opportunities to produce those fantasy goodies.

Other Options – Robert Woods ($5,300)


Tight End

Stud

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles, $8,100 – Kelce is the highest-priced tight end by $2,200. I hope that keeps his ownership level low because he has the highest floor/ceiling projection by a wide margin. He’s an alpha wide receiver in the tight end pool.

On the season, he’s garnered seven, eight and 11 targets while tallying 76, 109 and 104 yards. He’s also scored three touchdowns.

Did you see what Dalton Schultz ($3,400) just did to the Eagles on Monday Night?

If the projected ownership gets too high due to recency bias, then maybe look to pivot. That said, the Eagles are 18th in DVOA against tight ends so far this season. Last season, they were 26th.

Other Options – Logan Thomas ($4,900)

Value

Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings, $3,700 – Yup, it’s that game again. Hooper has only seen three, five and three targets this season. He did score a touchdown last week and the Vikings are 31st in DVOA against tight ends this season. I like the game environment and there should be opportunities for Hooper to score.

Other Options – Mike Gesicki ($4,000)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans, $4,300 – The Bills are favored by a whopping 16 points so the Texans are going to have to pass to try and keep up. The Bills are eighth in adjusted sack rate and are fourth in takeaways with three interceptions and three fumbles. They should be able to feast in this one. As with everything, much depends on projected ownership, especially at DST due to the variance at the position.

Other Option – Saints ($3,800)

Value

Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, $3,300 – Have you seen Ben Roethlisberger ($5,500) lately? As the venerable Charles Barkley would say, “Turrable.”

The Packers' defensive numbers don’t jump off the page. In fact, they are middling in most statistical categories. That said, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Packers favored by 6.5 points, so the Steelers are likely going to have to throw to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) and company.

The more Big Ben has to throw, the more chances for a fumble, sack and/or pick-six.

Other Option – Washington Football Team ($3,500)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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