clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 3

Steve Buchanan breaks down Friday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

After a very quiet Thursday night, Friday comes back with a 14-game slate right in your face! We’re going to discuss all about it below, so come join us.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Nestor Cortes, $6,900, New York Yankees (-235) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+190) — The biggest favorite on the slate is on the cheaper end for DFS salary, as Cortes is only $6,900. He’s been solid as a starter, tossing 42 innings while posting a 4.23 FIP, a 1.3 HR/9 a 7.7 K/9 and a 2.4 BB/9. This will be his first time seeing the Orioles, who could give him some trouble. I’ve said this a billion times before but don’t sleep on the Orioles when they face lefties. On the season, this club has a .327 wOBA, a .181 ISO, a 108 wRC+ and a 23.3% K%. In the month of August, this team was seventh in the league in ISO against righties at .198. They have some pop.

They toughest adversity they have to overcome is how good the Yankees are when favored. As favorites, they’ve gone 63-46 overall and 36-24 as home favorites. With how well the Orioles hit lefties, I could be persuaded in taking them on the F5 inning moneyline, which holds some really good value at +175. Naturally, we have to hope John Means ($6,600) holds up on his end. He has pitched against the Yankees once this season and threw 4 23 innings while holding them to just one run but on seven hits and four strikeouts. Not exactly a dominant performance but do with that information as you will.


Highest Projected Total

Atlanta Braves (-140; 5.5 runs) at Colorado Rockies (+120; 4.5 runs) 11 runs — This game had an insane run total last night of 12.5 runs, which did not hit. It came close, with the final score being 6-5 but it’s another under for the leagues worth team at hitting the over in the Rockies. The over has hit in only 43.8% of the games at Coors Field this season, which has me feeling some sort of way and it’s not good. We have a better pitching matchup taking place tonight, which is why the total has dropped a run and a half since yesterday. Huascar Ynoa ($7,900) will oppose Antonio Senzatela ($6,400), who has been damn good at Coors this season.

This game I’m having a tough time liking the over. As I mentioned, Senzatela has been so much better at home, which has oddly been a common theme for the Rockies staff (except Chi Chi Gonzalez). At home, he’s posted a .305 wOBA, a 3.44 FIP (!) and an 0.50 HR/9. He’s been extremely tough on both sides of the plate but lefties especially. Posting a 2.72 FIP against them is downright impressive. He often goes deep into games as well, tossing at least six innings in 13 of his 22 starts.

Ynoa has been great as well, posting an overall 3.79 FIP, a 9.5 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9. He hasn’t been as strong on the road but we’re still talking about just a 4.10 FIP and a 1.3 HR/9. The Rockies offense, naturally, has been better at home but I do like Ynoa tonight. Like Senzatela, Ynoa is someone you can rely upon to go deep in games, throwing at least six innings in six of his 11 starts. This simply doesn’t have that “over” feel unless the bullpen implode at the end. If you want to avoid that, the total through the first five innings is currently at six with the under at -115.


Weather Notes

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies

Both of these games have a slight chance of a delay with some storms popping up at some point. Neither look like a real threat to be postponed so I wouldn’t be overly concerned.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Vladimir Gutierrez, .320, 5.86
Jake Arrieta, .405, 5.38
Rich Hill, .269, 5.21

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Sean Manaea, .233, 2.51
Huascar Ynoa, .214, 3.10
Trevor Rogers, .303, 3.60


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jake Arrieta, .397, 5.69
Dallas Keuchel, .340, 5.52
Huascar Ynoa, .322, 5.20

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Shohei Ohtani, .218, 2.03
Freddy Peralta, .234, 2.20
Trevor Rogers, .259, 2.63


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers, $8,700 — Ohtani is a steal at $8,700 going against the Rangers at home. He’s thrown 15 innings against this team and sport a 3.09 FIP, a 13.2 K/9, a 0.6 HR/9 and a .262 wOBA. The walks, which has really been the only blemish when he starts, does sit at 4.8. Aside from that though, he’s sent this offense down with ease. Getting him at this salary feels way too cheap, as he has that legitimate upside to surpass returning value. It’s all the more impressive that Ohtani has a 13.2 K/9 against this team, as they hover around league average in K% against righties at 23.4%. When I look at the board and I see that Adam Wainright ($10,000) is the most expensive option, I happily will go down and grab Ohtani.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,600 — I love this spot for a very affordable Haniger in his preferred matchup against the lefty. That lefty, mind you, is Madison Bumgarner ($8,600). His rollercoaster season continues, as he’s coming off back-to-back poor starts against the Phillies and Pirates. Haniger enters this game with a .347 wOBA, a .255 ISO and a 125 wRC+ against lefties. 11 of his 29 home runs have come against southpaws, as he continues to be one of the driving forces of helping the Mariners make the playoffs. With the struggles Bumgarner continues to exhibit, give me the Mariners power bat.


Save Big by Drafting

Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets $2,300 — Thomas has found a lot of success since being traded to the Nationals. Thomas has found a lot of success since being traded to the Nationals. In 59 plate appearances since then, he’s slashing .314/.407/.510 with a .394 wOBA and a 146 wRC+. In the time he’s been up this season, he’s hit lefties extremely well, posting a .517 wOBA, a 225 wRC+ and a .194 ISO. He’s found himself hitting atop the Nationals lineup and should do so tonight against a struggling Rich Hill ($6,500).


Refer a friend and get $20 DK Dollars! Head to the DraftKings Playbook Promo page for more details!


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of the applicable MLB entity. All rights reserved.


All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF(IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).

21+ (18+ NH). CO/IL/IN/IA/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/MI only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.