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MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 3

Nick Friar gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s MLB betting card.

The Brewers get Freddy Peralta back off the IL for their return home Friday, so Milwaukee’s series opener vs. St Louis is shaping up to be a pitchers’ duel. But, I’m still only comfortable backing one starting pitcher from that game. Here’s what I like on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s MLB slate of games.

If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles

First Five Innings Yankees under 2.5 runs +120

John Means had a couple of rough outings mid-August, but the left-hander turned things back around in his last two starts. Although one of those rough starts came on the road, the Baltimore left-hander has been much better away from Camden Yards throughout 2021 — that includes his strong start at Yankee Stadium earlier in the season.

And for all the success the Yankees experienced throughout August, they weren’t that tough on opposing lefties in the Bronx last month. That’s not exactly a stray from the norm for the Yankees either. As much as the Yankees are top 10 in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season, their 2021 home OPS and ISO against left-handed pitching are middling.

Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals

Dallas Keuchel over 0.5 home runs allowed +130

Keuchel hasn’t been giving up home runs like they’re going out of style recently — which he did at the end of July — but he still gave up one in three of his five August starts. That’s all we need on Friday.

Both Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi have taken Keuchel deep before, but Salvador Perez still has yet to. The Kansas City catcher is too good against left-handed pitching to not run into one at some point against Keuchel. Still, it’s much safer to rely on the lineup as a whole rather than Perez alone.

Keuchel is among the qualified pitchers who’ve been barrelled up most frequently this season. And while he’s not exactly a flyball pitcher, the flies the left gives get out of the yard at a high rate.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

First Five Innings Cardinals under 1.5 runs -120

Freddy Peralta will likely be on a tight pitch count on Friday with this start being his first after a stint on the IL. The Brewers were already being plenty cautious with him as they prepare for October, and they definitely won’t mess with a cranky shoulder.

That same shoulder discomfort ended Peralta’s last outing on Aug. 18, which actually came against this same Cardinals lineup. St. Louis got to him for three runs over two innings in that one — a significant improvement from their performance against Peralta earlier in the season, when he held them to one run over seven frames.

But the shoulder problem undoubtedly had an impact on Peralta’s last start, and the Brewers would not send him back out if he didn’t feel much better. Still, the bullpen might need to help finish the first five innings off a little bit. But I’m still comfortable trusting Milwaukee’s bullpen and Peralta to hold down a St. Louis lineup that’s been middling against right-handed pitchers recently — much like they’ve been all season.

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