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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 4

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 4 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Indianapolis Colts v Tennessee Titans Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Week 4 is upon us, but you knew that already. We have plenty of football stats and analysis to get into, so let’s not waste anymore of your time.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Buffalo Bills (-1375; -16.5) vs. Houston Texans (+800)

Betting trends:
Bills 2021 home record: 1-1
Bills 2021 home record when favored: 1-1
Bills 2021 ATS record: 2-1
Bills 2021 ATS record when favored: 2-1

Texans 2021 road record: 0-1
Texans 2021 road record as underdogs: 0-1
Texans 2021 ATS record: 2-1
Texans 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 2-1

I mean, these are just ridiculous odds. You look at these odds and think, “How on Earth can the Texans NOT cover.” Well, amazingly enough, teams in these scenarios cover. A LOT. Since 2003, favorites of 16 or more points have gone 47-3 SU and 23-25-2 ATS. Amazing, right? When you look at this matchup, nothing really makes me want to bet the Texans, despite them being 2-1 ATS on the season. Not only that, Houston has covered by an average of 5.3 points through the first three weeks. Davis Mills ($4,900) is once again expected to start this game after a decent showing in Week 2 against the Panthers. He completed 19-of-29 pass attempts for 168 yards and a touchdown. Not too shabby for a very strong defensive team.

The problem with Week 4 is, the Bills corner have been absolutely lights out thus far. Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson all have allowed no more than a 55.6% reception rate on a combined 48 targets. Wallace is the only corner to be scored on thus far on a total of 131 receiving yards. This doesn’t bode well for the Texans, who said they’ll “open up the offense” for Mills this week. The Bills pass rush also grades in the Top 10 thus far, according to Pro Football Focus. They’ve racked up nine sacks already and had pressure on opposing quarterbacks 37% of the time.

Other notable favorites: New Orleans Saints (-335; -7.5) vs New York Giants (+260), Tennessee Titans (-320; -7) at New York Jets (+250)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Arizona Cardinals (+180) at Los Angeles Rams (-4; -220) Over/Under: 55

Betting trends:
Cardinals 2021 road record: 2-0
Cardinals 2021 road record as underdogs: 1-0
Cardinals 2021 Over/Under record: 1-2
Cardinals 2021 Over/Under record when underdogs: 0-1

Rams 2021 home record: 2-0
Rams 2021 home record as favorites: 1-0
Rams 2021 Over/Under record: 3-0
Rams 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 2-0

This total has seen a five point increase since last week, when we saw it at 50 points. It has since skyrocketed to 55, with the over getting -106. The Cardinals, despite being 1-2 with hitting the over, are tied with the Buccaneers, averaging a league-leading 34.3 points per game. The Rams aren’t far behind with 31.7 per game, which is the third best. To that end, neither team is letting up much on defense, with the Rams allowing an average of 20.7 and the Cardinals at 21.7. The Rams are also playing at one of the slower paces compared to the rest of the league, running an average of 57.7 plays per game, which ranks 26th.

I’m extremely torn on the total of this game. At 55, it feels a bit high for me with how good defensively these teams have been. The Cardinals coverage, according to PFF, ranks 3rd in the league while the Rams are at 11th. The way these offenses have been playing, I do feel as if we’ll see a good number of points scored in this game, I’m just not convinced we pass that 55 threshold to take this bet down. The matchup you want to watch in this one, for daily fantasy purposes, is Cooper Kupp ($7,800) against the slot corners. He’ll mainly see CB Byron Murphy Jr, who has been targeted against 14 times and has allowed eight receptions for 156 yards (19.5 YPR) and a touchdown. Kupp continues to be the alpha in those offense and has at least 10 targets in all three games. Deandre Hopkins ($7,700) will tangle with CB Jalen Ramsey. Hopkins is dealing with a rib injury but has only missed two games in his career.

Other notable total: Kansas City Chiefs (-310; -7) at Philadelphia Eagles (+245) O/U 54

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NFL Week 4 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Sunday, October 3rd, 9:30 a.m. ET

NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.

Teams Against the Spread:

Best Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Dallas Cowboys 12-4 5.1
Green Bay Packers 12-4 1.3
New England Patriots 10-6 7.5
Tennessee Titans 10-6 3.6
Arizona Cardinals 10-6 2.4

Worst Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 -7.6
Carolina Panthers 5-11 -2.8
Chicago Bears 6-10 -0.6
New York Jets 6-10 -4.3
New York Giants 6-10 -2.5

Teams Over/Under Records:

Best Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
New York Jets 10-6 4.4
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 1.4
Los Angeles Rams 8-7-1 -0.8
Buffalo Bills 8-8 -1.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8 0.4

Worst Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 -3.8
Seattle Seahawks 5-10-1 -3.3
New York Giants 5-10-1 -4.5
Atlanta Falcons 6-10 -2.1
New Orleans Saints 6-10 -2.8

Target Report

Target Report

Player Team Week 13 Opponent Avg. TPG Avg YPT
Player Team Week 13 Opponent Avg. TPG Avg YPT
Cooper Kupp LAR MIN 11.7 9.9
Diontae Johnson PIT KC 10.4 7.6
Tyreek Hill KC PIT 10.3 8.2
Keenan Allen LAC HOU 10.3 7.5
Justin Jefferson MIN LAR 9.8 9.7
DJ Moore CAR TB 9.5 7.4
Marquise Brown BAL CIN 9.3 7.5
Stefon Diggs BUF NE 9.1 7.9
Travis Kelce KC PIT 8.7 8.7
Mark Andrews BAL CIN 8.7 8.7

Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $6,900 — We all saw a really ugly game from the Eagles on Monday night, as the Cowboys did everything they could to make the Eagles offense inept. That said, the Chiefs defense is going to offer a weak pass rush and should give Hurts more time to throw. In a game where the Eagles were down big, Hurts dropped back 48 times and still completed 64.1% of his pass attempts for 326 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He also rushed the ball nine times for an additional 35 yards. With that type of volume, Hurts is going to continue to post good fantasy days, even if the real thing doesn’t look good. When Hurts has a clean pocket, something he’s worked with 71.8% of the time, he’s averaging 7.1 YPA, a 80% adjusted completion percentage and two of his five passing touchdowns.

Player props for Jalen Hurts on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Passing Yards: OTB
Passing TDs: 1.5 (over +110 under -145)
Pass + Rush Yards: 293.5 (over -115 under -115)
Pass attempts: 31.5 (over -125 under -105)

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs $5,700 — Another reason to like Hurts is how affordable it is to pair him with Smith. That leaves you with an average of $5,342 per player on average to fill out your roster. Even if you used the most expensive D/ST option in the Bills ($4,300) you’d get up to $5,516. Smith has been quiet the past couple of weeks but this is setting up to be a great spot to see more of his Week 1 production, when he had six receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown. Smith should be facing CB Mike Hughes on the majority of his snaps, who has been targeted against 11 times and and has allowed eight receptions for 80 yards and two touchdowns. It’s a decent start in coverage for Hughes but he’s been subpar at best since being drafted in the first round by the Vikings in 2018. As the go-to option for Hurts in a game he’s expected to drop back plenty, Smith is a very affordable play.

Player props for Tyler Lockett on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Receptions: 3.5 (over -150 under -105)
Receiving Yards: 47.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest Receptions: 20.5 (over -115 under -115)

Top Running Back To Consider

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at New York Jets, $8,800 — This is one of those games where it has all the makings of being one of those massive Henry weeks. All the boxes are being checked in this one and we have some historical data to back it up. We’re hearing rumblings that some of the Titans offensive weapons are banged up in both A.J. Brown ($6,300) and Julio Jones ($6,500) and yet the Titans are still over a touchdown favorite on the road. In these scenarios, when the Titans are on the road and at least -6.5 road favorites, Henry has averaged 30.5 DKFP. For someone averaging 54.4% of the teams total touches and all the scenarios going on, this is a week I’ll be locking in Henry across the board.

Player props for Derrick Henry on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Rushing Yards: 109.5 (over -115 under -115)
Rushing Attempts: 24.5 (over -125 under -105)

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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