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MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for September 30

Kenny Ducey gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s MLB betting card.

MLB: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

It’s Thursday, and that not only means the weekend is around the corner, it means we’ve got plenty of baseball on the docket. With just a few games left in the season, we’ll need to dig deep to figure out which games are actionable, but I’ve taken a look at the entire card and I think I’ve picked out three winners.

Here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.

All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Yankees ML (+130)

Robbie Ray stinks against the Yankees, and so do all lefties. New York is sixth in wRC+ to southpaws this year, walking in 10.1% of plate appearances and hitting a commanding 68 homers. The Bombers seem to have the three true outcomes down in these spots, and that’s bad news for Ray.

The Cy Young candidate is heavily strikeout-reliant this year, and has still given up a hard-hit rate of almost 43%. He’s run into issues with patient teams like the Yankees, though he’s generally kept the walks down in 2021 in what’s been one of the shockers of the season.

This is not a good matchup for him, so it makes sense he’s pitched to a 5.59 ERA against the Yankees in 9 23 innings, spanning two starts. He’s allowed three homers and walked five during that time, setting New York up as a tasty underdog.

Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros

Astros ML (-150)

If you notice, my theme today is betting on games with significance. The Astros have still yet to wrap up the AL West, and need a win to do so. They should get it done with the Rays throwing Johnny Wholestaff tonight.

The Rays’ bullpen has been solid of late, but with Tampa Bay clinching the best record in the American League, it’s hard to see it deploying its very best high-leverage guys as we near the postseason. That should be enough for Houston with Lance McCullers on the hill.

McCullers is a sinker ball pitcher, which is an archetype that has given the Rays issues this year. They rank 22nd in weighted runs per 100 sinkers this season, setting up an already-hot McCullers for a great evening. He’s pitched to a 3.00 ERA in September which only stands to improve.

San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Padres had just about the most demoralizing loss you could draw up on Wednesday, giving up a five-run eighth to their bitter rivals to lose, 11-9. It was a game San Diego had complete control over, and one which featured one of its very best offensive nights of the season, touching up Max Scherzer.

I’m just not sure there is anything left in the tank here, and it seems inevitable San Diego will end the season with a losing record with Vince Velasquez pitching Thursday’s game. The righty owns some of the very worst peripherals in the league, sporting a 5.18 xERA with a 12.1% walk rate and an 11.6% barrel rate. He is minced meat against a Dodgers team still fighting for the NL West, and one throwing a humming Tony Gonsolin.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.