Saturday features an eight-game MLB main slate, and the action on DraftKings gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers ($10,200) — Third Baseman Max Schrock pitched the ninth inning for the Reds last night, so their bullpen desperately needs a day of rest. Mahle will go as deep as he can against a Tigers offense that likely used up its allotment of hits and runs for the week on Friday night. Great American Ball Park helps offenses via the home run — which are not balls batted in play — so the Tigers’ .419 BABIP last night is an anomaly and the normal Tigers should take the field tonight — 88 wRC+, .300 wOBA, .159 ISO and a 26% K rate against right-handed pitching. Mahle has been exceptional with a 3.72 xFIP and a 28% K rate and should not have any trouble with this lineup.
Other Option: Framber Valdez ($10,000)
Matthew Boyd, Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds ($5,800) — This is a contrarian leverage play. Cincinnati at home facing the Tigers should be a popular stacking option. The problem with Cincinnati is that they’re terrible against left-handed pitching. Nonetheless, DFS players cannot help themselves — they will stack Reds bats at Great American Ball Park against a poor pitcher every time — it’s the right move and statistically it will work more often than not. However, there is an opportunity to save a lot of money and leap frog a bunch of lineups, if the Reds continue to struggle with left-handed pitching — 74 wRC+, .286 wOBA, .140 ISO and a 25.6 % K rate. Boyd’s fly ball rate (42%) could be a problem but he’s been better than the league average at keeping the ball in the park (9% HR/FB rate). Also, Cincinnati strikes out a lot against left-handed pitchers and Boyd has an above average chase rate and first pitch strike rate.
Other Option: Kolby Allard ($5,000)
Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals ($5,400) — Since returning from the IL six games ago, Grandal has four home runs and nine hits. In 42 at-bats against left-handed pitching, he has a .480 wOBA, .357 ISO, 213 wRC+ and a 39% hard contact rate. Daniel Lynch ($5,400) has struggled with right-handed batters to the tune of a .365 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate with a 37% fly ball rate.
Other Option: Tyler Stephenson ($4,800)
Jose Trevino, Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels ($2,400) — Over his last 10 games, Trevino has a .378 wOBA and a .184 ISO. Jose Suarez ($6,500) as a starter has a 4.71 xFIP and 5.53 ERA in nine games, and against right-handed batters his xFIP increases to 4.93.
Other Option: Travis d’Arnaud ($3,700)
José Abreu, Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals ($5,200) — Against left-handed pitching, Abreu has a .390 wOBA, .325 ISO, 152 wRC+ and 36% hard contact rate. Daniel Lynch has a 5.11 xFIP vs. right-handed batters in 41 innings. His .364 BABIP might regress a little toward the mean, but not much based on his poor pitching metrics.
Other Option: Joey Votto ($4,900)
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers ($4,100) — A lefty-on-lefty matchup is never the best idea, but there are some interesting splits with these two. In a limited sample (47 at-bats), Belt has been locked on to southpaws — .417 wOBA, .277 ISO and a 165 wRC+. Julio Urias ($9,700) has been strong against lefty bats, but he does allow 1.8 HR/9 and a 47% fly ball rate.
Other Option: Darin Ruf ($3,100)
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Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies ($5,000) — He has a .202 ISO vs. right handed-pitching and he’s playing at Coors Field. Germán Márquez ($8,100) has been a good pitcher at home, but not good enough to avoid. Even if Albies does not work against Márquez, he will get great opportunities against a terrible Rockies bullpen — 4.61 xFIP, 1.3 HR/9, 37% fly ball rate and a 69% strand rate.
Other Option: Trea Truner ($5,100)
Cèsar Hernández, Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals ($3,600) — Against left-handed pitching, Hernández has a .329 wOBA, .273 ISO, 107 wRC+ and a 39% hard contact rate. Daniel Lynch has recorded three consecutive solid starts — three earned runs over 16 2⁄3 innings — and a White Sox stack may not work, but a one-off value play can work.
Other Option: Jonathan India ($4,500)
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies ($5,500) — The Braves barely miss Ronald Acuna with the way Austin Riley is swinging the bat. He has a .410 wOBA, .258 ISO, 157 wRC+ and 37% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. In the first two games of this series in Colorado, Riley has collected four hits (two doubles) and three RBIs.
Other Option: Kyle Seager ($4,700)
Eugenio Suárez, Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers ($4,100) — There were 20 runs scored at Great American Ball Park last night. Neither team’s starter made it out of the fourth inning. Boyd can easily fail in this matchup and so can Detroit’s bullpen. Suárez is having a terrible season and this might be the beginning of his decline, but he does have a 46% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching and he’s homered in each of his last two starts.
Other Option: Justin Turner ($4,400)
Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves ($5,800) — This hasn’t been the best season for Story and he’s stuck going nowhere with the cellar dwelling Rockies, but the last week has been pretty good for him personally. He has a .466 wOBA and a .348 ISO since Aug. 29 and he’ll look to add to those numbers on Saturday night at Coors Field. Ian Anderson ($7,000) will be taking the mound for the Braves one start removed from the IL. In that start, he did not allow any runs over 5 2⁄3 but he had a .200 BABIP with zero strikeouts (5.78 xFIP). The results looked good, but that could have been a lot worse. An xFIP that high is usually trouble in Colorado.
Other Option: Dansby Swanson ($5,100)
Nicky Lopez, Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox ($3,700) — Before going hitless in his last two games, Lopez was hot. He had hits in 15 of 18 games with a .409 wOBA. In 15 innings vs. left-handed batters, Reynaldo Lopez ($6,300) has a 4.99 xFIP.
Other Option: Kyle Farmer ($3,300)
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners ($5,400) — He’s only played in 66 games this season, but they have been good ones — .513 wOBA, .347 ISO, 223 wRC+, 46% hard contact rate and a 12% K rate against left-handed pitching. Somehow Marco Gonzales ($9,300) is one of the most expensive pitchers on the slate despite allowing a .362 wOBA, .262 ISO, 2.0 HR/9, 18% K rate and a 50% fly ball rate to right-handed batters. DraftKings does not have any faith in the Arizona offense.
Other Option: Nick Castellanos ($5,100)
Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers ($3,100) — Playing Boyd is likely a bridge too far. The smart move is to load up on the Reds’ bats, and even the lefties because Detroit’s bullpen will likely make an early appearance. Aquino has a .233 ISO vs. left-handed pitching and he’s a significantly better hitter in Cincinnati — .369 wOBA and a .275 ISO.
Other Option: Adam Duvall ($4,100)
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