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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Dodgers vs. Giants Showdown on September 5

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Dodgers and Giants, which starts at 7:08 p.m. ET.

MLB: New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

It was unthinkable that the Giants would lose their lead in the NL West, but on Saturday night, the Giants lost their hold on the best record in baseball and fell into a tie in the NL West. The Dodgers are surging, but the big story is the Giants’ rotation. Who expected San Francisco’s season to hinge on Jose Quintana?



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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants

Captain’s Picks

Walker Buehler ($17,100 CP) — It seems strange to start by highlighting the flaws of a proposed Captain’s Pick, but by pointing out Buehler’s weaknesses we magnify his exceptional traits. This is the final month of the season and Buehler’s 42% fly ball rate and 36% hard contact rate to right-handed batters has never caught up with him. He’s holding right-handed batters to 0.8 HR/9 and an unsustainable .219 BABIP — yet he’s sustained it. Zach Greinke finished second in Cy Young voting for the Dodgers in 2015 with a .224 BABIP, so Buehler isn’t even the first Dodger to work a magical season. This year’s NL Cy Young race is tight, but Buehler’s 2.05 ERA and 13-2 record give him the slight edge at the moment. He’ll need to win out to win the award, and a game in San Francisco’s cavernous park is a great place to start for a fly ball pitcher.

Max Muncy ($14,100 CP) — One at-bat against Jose Quintana is all that will be needed —whether Quintana starts, opens or is the long reliever, just one at-bat. Muncy is one of the best hitters in baseball versus left-handed pitching — .420 wOBA .308 ISO, 169 wRC+, 42% hard contact rate and a 16% K rate. Quintana is a washed up lefty — the Angels released him before the end of a one-year deal — that is struggling with right-handed batters (.411 wOBA, .219 ISO, 38% hard contact rate, 1.9 HR/9, .425 BABIP and a 59% strand rate).


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Sunday Night Showdown [$50K to 1st] (LAD vs SF)


Value Plays

Chris Taylor ($7,200) — He cooled down in August (.275 wOBA), but he still owns a .382 wOBA, .246 ISO and a 144 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. As an away hitter he should get a full complement of at-bats and those at-bats will be against Quintana and an assortment of relievers that are worn out — the Giants’ bullpen led the league in innings pitched this week with 37 13. There’s value for the Giants, but they may only bat three times and those at-bats could all come against a potential Cy Young winner.

Tyler Rogers ($4,000) — The rules state that DFS players must play a player from both teams. Buehler is not a god, and any right-handed Giant can take the fly ball pitcher yard, but it rarely happens. What is more likely to happen is that the Giants dig deep into their bullpen once again. The arms that rested on Saturday will likely be the first off the bench on Sunday night. On Thursday night, Rogers struck out the side against the Brewers. At home in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park, Rogers has a 1.31 ERA and a 20.5% K rate. Tony Watson ($4,000) is another strong option. The Dodgers cannot hit left-handed pitching and Watson held his opponents scoreless in his three appearances this week.


Fades

Editor’s Note: Giants P Jose Quintana is not starting tonight vs. the Dodgers.

Jose Quintana ($13,500 CP; $9,000) — Showdown slates are notorious for being light on offense, but taking a chance on Quintana is too risky. The Angels took a chance on Quintana at the beginning of the season and they paid a hefty price — $8 million for a 6.75 ERA over 53 innings. The Giants are desperate for arms, so they will take a chance and hope that he is at least half the Chicago version of himself, but even that version was slipping before his season-ending, dishwashing thumb injury in 2020. Not to mention, Quintana may be an opener or long reliever and is unlikely to pitch five innings, but let’s be honest, most readers gave up on playing Quintana once they were reminded that he missed the 2020 season due to a microsurgery stemming from a dishwashing mishap. Good for him that he’s doing chores around the house, but being that he nearly lost a finger washing dishes — it doesn’t sound like he washes dishes that often. With the way things are going, he’ll have plenty of time to wash dishes in the future.


The Outcome

The free fall continues. Until the Giants pitching staff gets healthy, it’s going to he hard to match the Dodgers’ pace. Sunday night’s matchup isn’t fair: A Cy Young candidate faces Jose Quintana and a depleted bullpen. The schedule makers must have had high hopes for big TV ratings at the beginning of this week, but it’s unlikely they feel the same way now.

Final Score: Dodgers 6, Giants 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $150K Sunday Night Showdown [$50K to 1st] (LAD vs SF)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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