It’s Sunday, and that means we’ve got a jam-packed slate with plenty of games to choose from in the afternoon and so many valuable lines out there that it’s hard to pick just a few. With that said, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Taijuan Walker is straight up not having a good time right now. His ERA since the All-Star break sits at 6.81, and he’s been touched up by some mediocre teams like the Marlins. His strikeout totals have taken a hit as well, and he allowed seven homers in August.
This is a new month, but the competition will still be fierce. The Nationals seem to have punted on the season, snapping a seven-game losing streak with a win on Saturday, but their numbers over the last week are rather strong. They’ve posted a .201 ISO, walked at a high 11.2% clip and rank 12th with a 106 wRC+. Walker has struggled with walks and gopher balls lately, so this is bad news.
Then, you’ve got Josiah Gray on the hill for the Nationals, who had been nothing short of amazing since coming over in the Trea Turner trade until a bad outing against Philly. The stuff is still very good, and I think the value is on him at home with an offense that’s been quietly great.
This won’t be an easy one for the Mariners on the road. Tyler Gilbert hasn’t quite been as good as he was in his first career start, when he threw a no-hitter, but he’s been very solid for the Diamondbacks in the handful of starts since. One issue that he may run into here is that the matchup is a bad one in a key area.
The Mariners rate out as the best team in baseball this year versus the cut fastball, which is the pitch of choice of Gilbert, who throws it 44.4% of the time. While it’s true that Gilbert is a lefty, which isn’t the preferred handedness of the Mariners, they seem to be pretty apt at picking up this pitch out of the hand.
Seattle is also hitting the ball pretty well for a team that’s struggling, and Chris Flexen continues to cruise in the rotation. I think this one will be close, but I’d ultimately side with the better offense in the better matchup with the better pitcher.
I really don’t think Chris Paddack is a good pitcher, and at the very least he’s not as good as Luis Garcia. The young Astros righty has shined all year with a sparkling 3.22 ERA, and Paddack has been very up-and-down, carrying a 4.98 ERA into this one. Context is always needed, but in this case it really doesn’t help Paddack, who has had a few nice outings lately against bad teams.
This is a matchup I couldn’t hate more for Paddack, against a very disciplined team which makes a boatload of contact. He’s struggled with homers and hard-hit balls (42.2% hard-hit rate) this year, and gotten by on strikeouts. Houston doesn’t strikeout that much, and is starting to round back into form a bit on offense.
The Padres’ offense remains ice cold with a 76 wRC+ over the last two weeks and should be no match for the relentless arsenal of Garcia and his 28.8% strikeout rate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.