Week 1 was quite the roller coaster ride, with a hot start, some Saturday afternoon regression, and then a strong finish. I’m currently sitting at 9-5 for +1.9 units on the CFB season, and as I type this up on a Holiday Monday, I just wanted to get a couple of Week 2 plays locked in early.
I’m just getting a quick post up here on Labor Day (9/6) to lock these plays in. More analysis on these plays and bets for Week 2 to follow throughout the week.
3-Unit Play on 9/6
We made a 2-unit play on the Wolfpack -19 in Week 1, which cashed and allowed me to giveaway five $100 free bets on DraftKings Sportsbook. It was a sweat-free winner, with NC State dominating the entire contest, on its way to a 45-0 victory. This team is very good, with elite offensive players returning, and 10 starters from a solid defense last year back on the roster. While USF is nothing special, I think Mississippi State is another opponent the Wolfpack should be able to have their way with, even on the road. The Bulldogs got up 35 points on LA Tech, but only won at home by a single point as 21-point favorites. I bet this one big at -1.5 and added a bit more at -2.5. I’d recommend getting it before it inevitably moves to -3.
1.5-Unit Play on 9/6
The Panthers rolled UMass in Week 1, as expected. We didn’t learn much from Pittsburgh in Week 1, but it looked the part and did what it was supposed to do against one of the worst teams in college football. This is a squad I’m pretty high on this season, and I think they can catch this Tennessee team off guard. The Vols wound up beating a terrible Bowling Green team by 31 points in Week 1, but this game was just 14-6 at halftime. Tennessee looked awful at times. If the Vols don’t up their game this week in a big way, the Panthers will pounce on them. I personally bet this one at -2.5, and if we get the alternate spread offered soon at something like -120, I’d buy the hook off the field goal.
1.5-Unit Play on 9/6
I hate missing out on value, and the lookahead line for this game was Texas -3.5. I considered grabbing it before the season and passed. While I regret it, getting anything under a touchdown here is still a good play. Texas handled a ranked ULL squad at home in Week 1, winning by 20 as an 8.5-point favorite. Even on the road, I think this should be another similar type of result. Arkansas got off to a dreadful start at home against Rice, actually losing the game at times in the first three quarters. While the Razorbacks covered the 19.5-point spread, it took a late miracle — the Hogs truly had their hands full with Rice of the majority of this game. Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns shouldn’t have any issues breaking this one open.
1.5-Unit Play on 9/9
South Carolina had a lot of concerns to open up the season, and while they played far inferior competition in Eastern Illinois, the Gamecocks looked great. Now they bring a handful of starters back to face and ECU squad that was a letdown in Week 1. Even as a bottom of the barrel team in the SEC, the Gamecocks are getting overlooked here.
1-Unit Play on 9/9
There’s something fishy about this line, or the money would’ve pushed it to -3 already. As of Thursday afternoon, 72% of the bets and 79% of the handle is on Iowa after its impressive victory over Indiana, yet the spread has moved from -3.5 to -4.5. Generally, I just stick to analysis about the game, but this is one of those times where I’m following the money and jumping on the other side.
2-Unit Play on 9/9
I’m going to the alternate spread here to get under the -14 number and laying a little extra juice. South Alabama dominated Southern Miss in the opener, finishing the game on a 31-0 run after giving up the first score of the game. I expect the Jaguars to have their way with a Bowling Green team that’ll struggle to score.
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