The MLB regular season is winding down, but all 30 teams will be in action on Tuesday. Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
The Brewers are shaping up to be a preferred target for the sharps on Tuesday. They’ve received approximately half of the betting tickets, but those tickets have accounted for 88% of the moneyline dollars. That’s a large discrepancy, which means that the big money bets are siding with the Brewers.
They’ll send Eric Lauer to the mound, who has pitched to a solid 3.43 ERA this season. He’s also a left-hander, which could be important in this matchup. The Phillies rank just 20th in wRC+ vs. southpaws over the past 30 days, so they have struggled a bit vs. LHPs.
The Phillies will turn to Aaron Nola, but he has not been his usual dominant self this season. He’s struggled to a 4.54 ERA, including a 5.55 ERA when on the road. I think the Brewers are a bit underpriced in this spot.
No one thought the Cubs would remain competitive after blowing up their team at the trade deadline, but they have managed to find some success. They have absolutely crushed left-handed pitchers over the past 14 days, ranking second in the league with a 162 wRC+.
They’ll be taking on a left-hander on Tuesday in Wade Miley, who has had a fantastic season for the Reds. However, his advanced metrics suggest he’s been fairly lucky. He’s managed just a 6.90 K/9, which is about as low as you’ll see for a starting pitcher in 2021. He’s still pitched to a 2.97 ERA, but his 3.78 FIP is probably a truer indicator of his talent.
The Cubs will turn to Adrian Sampson, who will be making just his second start of the season. His first came against the Reds in Cincinnati, and he limited them to just one run over four innings. Overall, he’s pitched 11 1/3 innings this year, and he’s allowed just two earned runs. The Cubs should be able to keep this game competitive at Wrigley Field.
Coors Field is typically a hitter’s paradise, but that has not been the case for much of this season. The under has gone 38-30-2 in Colorado this season, resulting in a +7.2% return on investment. Overall, the Rockies have been the eighth-most profitable home under squad in baseball. When the total has been at 11 runs or higher, the under at Coors is a beautiful 30-16-1 in 2021.
The big reason for this is that the Rockies can’t really hit. Their offense is a shell of what it was in their prime, so they’ll have their work cut out for them against Logan Webb. Webb isn’t the Giants’ best pitcher, but he still owns a sparkling 2.56 ERA and 2.90 FIP through 112 1/3 innings this season.
The Giants’ offense has a much brighter outlook against Chi Chi Gonzalez, but Gonzalez has been slightly better when pitching at home this season. Even if the Giants do pile on some runs against him, there’s no guarantee that the Rockies hold up their end of the bargain. Both teams have to contribute offensively to hit the over on 12, so I think there’s plenty of merit with the under on Tuesday.
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