NFL football has arrived, and that means time to start locking up our best bets for Week 1 on DraftKings Sportsbook!
While I will have other sports betting related content throughout the week, including best bets articles for both MNF and TNF each week (along with CFB best bets), this article will be where all my best bet wagers, along with unit size live on a weekly basis. Let’s get ready for what we hope to be a profitable season, beginning with a strong Week 1.
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
SF -7 (-115) — 2 units (Bet August 17)
I gave this play out back in August when the number was -7 as the first NFL Week 1 line that I bet on. I don’t mind it at -7.5, but getting the better number can always make a difference. You can find all that analysis on why I like the Niners to smash the Lions in this article.
2 Pick 6-Point Teaser: TB -1.5/SF -1 (-120) — 2 units (Bet September 7)
This pick was dished out in my TNF best bets article, putting even more weight on the Niners, while adding the Bucs into the mix in the season opener. Check out that TNF BB article for all the analysis on this teaser.
NFL Week 1 has finally arrived! @julianedlow and @SBuchanan24 both have different 6-point teasers that get underway on Thursday.— Unreasonable Odds Podcast (@UnreasonableOdd) September 9, 2021
Julian also thinks we're getting some value with the Packers on @DKSportsbook after the move to a neutral field.
Listen: https://t.co/BktXMKadOQ pic.twitter.com/5RtdsJTzYD
GB -3.5 (-115) — 1.5 units (Bet September 8) — added 0.5 units (September 12)
We may have missed the best of the number here, but I think with all the information we now have, we’re getting a tremendous price on the Packers. Green Bay was a dog all summer, but we couldn’t possibly back them without assurance Aaron Rodgers would be on the field. Once we knew he was playing, I liked the Pack in New Orleans in Week 1 laying the -3.
But now this game transitions to a neutral field in Jacksonville, so how the heck does moving this number to just 3.5 make sense? It doesn’t. The advantage the Saints would have in the Super Dome is massive compared to in Jacksonville, so I like laying the points even more now.
While I despise the Aaron Rodgers comp to Michael Jordan, Rodgers is trying to turn this into a “Last Dance” type scenario, and I think we’ll get the best out of him. Green Bay won this game last year in New Orleans by a touchdown, and return a very similar roster. Meanwhile, the Saints lose Drew Brees, their top-two receivers and starting tight end. On defense, this team is in shambles, particularly in the secondary.
From a trends perspective, Rodgers generally starts the season well, going 9-4 ATS in his last 13 Week 1 games. The Saints have been one of the worst teams in the NFL out of the gates against expectations — 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games played in Weeks 1 and 2. And no, it’s not related to slow starts from Brees, as the Saints averaged 30 points per game in Week 1 over the last seven years. This is related to the defense, which lost a step, as did the offense this offseason. I liked the Pack to roll in NOLA, and think this only gets earier outside of the Super Dome.
BAL -4 (-110) — 1 unit (Bet September 8)
Despite what’s sure to be a rowdy crowd in Las Vegas on MNF, both the eye test and the trends point to the Ravens for me here. I wrote them up early in my MNF best bets article, and at the time of publishing, it was my lone play for that game. Find the analysis by clicking on the article here.
Added props (all 1-unit):
Lot of correlation here, as these two former Jets go up against their old team in a spectacular matchup at home. This Jets secondary doesn’t have a starter drafted higher than the fifth-round, and should get carved up on deep balls, leaving Carolina in position to score some points.
The Niners are blowing up into massive favorites in Detroit, all of which is warranted. The Lions rushing defense ranked near the bottom of the NFL last season, allowing nearly 135 yards per game. Looks for Mostert and the Niners to carve them up.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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