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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for September 8

Steve Buchanan breaks down Wednesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Washington Nationals v Atlanta Braves Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

Hi, hello, good afternoon. Wednesday features a nine-game slate of baseball which starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. We will chat about it and maybe make some money in the process.

Follow me on Twitter or you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24


DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Yu Darvish, $9,300, San Diego Padres (-240) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+195) — Really, really interesting line for tonight. Darvish is scheduled to take the mound and is a massive favorite but is it really justified? His season has gone downhill since the month of July and he hasn’t shown signs of getting back on track. He’s spent time on the 10-day injured list in August and came back two weeks ago. Darvish was greeted back by two bad starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, who tagged him for a combined 10 runs (nine earned) on 13 hits through 8 23 innings. With those bad starts, his numbers since July show a 5.33 FIP, a .371 wOBA and 13 home runs allowed. For reference, in April through June, Darvish had a 3.06 FIP, a .262 wOBA and only 10 home runs allowed. Quite the difference, right?

With this in mind, the Angels are a very interesting play tonight. Believe me, I’m not thrilled at all about backing them in any capacity but a couple of plays have caught my attention. The Angels total runs through the first five innings is currently set at 1.5. You read that correctly, 1.5. The over is at -105 while the under is at -115. Since July, Darvish has a made nine starts and has allowed 33 runs through the first five innings. That gives him a 7.75 ERA, a .365 wOBA and a 5.41 FIP. He also has a massive 2.8 HR/9. Seeing a team with a 1.5 team total at -105 seems wild with these numbers presented. If you want to take this even further, the Angels moneyline through the first five innings is at +155. This Padres team is really struggling offensively, averaging four runs over the last five games.


Highest Projected Total

Toronto Blue Jays (+105; 4.5 runs) vs. New York Yankees (-125; 4.5 runs) 10 runs — Two games tonight have a projected run total of 10 runs tonight, one of them being this one at Yankee Stadium. Neither team has been consistent with hitting the over on the game total. Quite frankly we’re talking about two teams at the bottom of the league in doing so. The Blue Jays have done it only 44.7% of the time while the Yankees are now the worst in the league, passing the Rockies at 43.3%.

Tonight will feature Alek Manoah ($8,400) taking on Luis Gil ($7,000). Gil is getting the call up from Triple-A to make this start while Manoah is hoping to build on his first appearance against the Yankees when he shut them out through seven innings. Gil has yet to allow a run in the 15 23 innings he’s pitched in the majors, which includes three starts against the Red Sox, Mariners and Orioles. He has really good strikeout upside, posting an 11.6 K/9 in 46 1/3 innings in Triple-A. The biggest knock on him is his command, which has also shown in the majors. Luckily for him, the Blue Jays are a free swinging team and have one of the lowest BB% against righties at 8. I’m not convinced this game is going over 10 runs so I would be inclined to take the under in this one.


Weather Notes

Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Both games have a chance of rain as the game progresses, so this could be more of a in-game delay than a delayed start. Both does have a significant amount of concern so keep an eye on these.


Splits to Start

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Vladimir Gutierrez, .326, 6.04
Alec Mills, .375, 4.97
Alek Manoah, .336, 4.72

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Nathan Eovaldi, .281, 2.39
Mike Minor, .319, 3.08
Frankie Montas, .295, 3.18


Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters


Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Dallas Keuchel, .341, 5.49
Matt Harvey, .373, 4.68
Mike Minor, .327, 4.60

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .251, 2.51
Kyle Gibson, .252, 3.35
Nathan Eovaldi, .318, 3.37


Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays, $9,500 — Wednesday’s pitching selection isn’t exactly bursting with options to choose from. I do, however, like Eovaldi going against the Rays for a few reasons. First, it was said this morning that Randy Arozarena ($4,700) will not be in the lineup as he’s being placed on the paternity list. He’s arguably been one of their hottest hitters, averaging 12.8 DKFP over his last 10 games, including going 4-for-11 in this series. Eovaldi has also been better at home posting a solid 2.36 FIP, a .271 wOBA and only a 0.45 HR/9. In three starts against this team, he’s held them to seven runs on 12 hits with 23 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings.


Stud Hitter to Pay For

Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals, $5,100 — This man is simply on fire right now. This the calendar flipped to September, Albies has posted double-digit fantasy points in four straight games. He’s gone 6-for-17 with a home run in all of them, seven RBI and two singles. He very well could extend his home run streak to five games against Sean Nolin ($5,900). The lefty has only thrown 17 13 innings in the majors but has been tagged for four home runs as well as 11 runs and 25 hits. Between his poor pitching and a Nationals bullpen that has been heavily used as of late, Albies is set up for another big night.


Save Big by Drafting

Tyler Naquin, Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, $2,900 — Naquin should draw the start for the Reds tonight against Alec Mills ($6,300). Mills has some really poor numbers against lefties this season, which include a .375 wOBA, a 4.97 FIP and a 1.3 HR/9. Subsequently, Naquin’s numbers are all against righties, where he has a .364 wOBA, a .235 ISO and 18 of the 19 home runs he’s hit. While the Chicago wind won’t be much of a factor tonight, Mills has seen the ball travel out of the park seven of the 11 times here at Wrigley Field.


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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