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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Wild Card Sunday

Stan Son gives his top studs and value plays at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Playoffs? We’re talking about playoffs? Yes, ladies and gentlemen. The playoffs are upon us, and it’s Charlie Sheen time — when the frauds get exposed and the true contenders take their first steps to glory. We have a three-game slate on Sunday, with the Buccaneers hosting the Eagles, the 49ers traveling to Dallas and the Chiefs welcoming the Steelers. DraftKings Sportsbook has the Chiefs as the biggest favorite at 12.5 points with the Bucs right behind at 8.5. Dallas is favored by three points vs. San Francisco. All three games have solid totals: 46 for PHI-TB, 50.5 for SF-DAL and 46 for PIT- KC.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Saturday’s main DraftKings slate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (Sun)


Quarterback

Stud

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $7,200 — Let’s see, is Bruce Arians going to place the playoffs lives of the Buccaneers on the shoulders of Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Le’Veon Bell? May I get “Rhetorical questions” for $100, Alex? Fine, Leonard Fournette ($5,600) could be back, and he rushed 22 times for 81 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 6 when these teams faced each other, but I have doubts that he sees a similar workload since he’s missed the last three weeks. Brady will likely attack the 25th-rated pass defense in terms of DVOA. He has attempted at least 40 passes 10 times this season, going over 50 three times. Brady went 34 of 42 for 297 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in Week 6. Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown played, but Rob Gronkowski ($6,400) was out. The Eagles were the fourth-most generous team in allowing touchdowns in the red zone and gave up the most fantasy points per game and touchdowns to tight ends.

Value

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,100 — The Eagles were the most run-heavy team in the league from Week 7 on, but that game plan will be difficult to employ this week. The Bucs are 12th in rush defense DVOA, and they should put up points and force aggression from the Eagles. In the Week 6 meeting between the two teams, Hurts went 12 of 26 for 115 yards with a touchdown and an interception, but he rushed 10 times for 44 yards and two touchdowns. Miles Sanders ($5,000) only carried nine times.


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Running Back

Stud

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, $6,600 — Harris is the only true bellcow on the slate. He will play close to 100% of the snaps, get the goal-line carries and be involved in the passing game. He has 43 red-zone opportunities, which leads the team by a wide margin and has garnered 94 targets on the season. Now, not all is sunshine and unicorns, as the Steelers are 25th in run blocking and he’s scored fewer than 10 DKFP in four games. That said, he has gone for at least 20 DKFP eight times, with two above 30. The Chiefs allowed the fifth-most targets to running backs during the regular season, and if the Steelers have any chance of being competitive, Harris will likely be a big reason why. These teams met three weeks ago, and Harris rushed 19 times for 93 yards while hauling in five of seven targets for 17 yards.

Value

Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,500 – The Eagles backfield looks like it will be at full strength this weekend, which is vomit-inducing for us fantasy nerds. That said, the Buccaneers allowed the second-most targets to the position, and Scott has a chance of getting a big piece of that pie. He did not play back in Week 6 when these teams faced each other. The Eagles likely won’t try to run too often, and they could be chasing points, so Scott could see an elevated snap share with targets in the passing game.


Wide Receiver

Stud

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys, $7,900 — This game has the highest total on the slate at 50.5, with the Cowboys favored by three points. Dallas is second in pass-defense DVOA, but this is not a conventional passing attack they will be facing. The 49ers are run-based, rely on play action and design their passing attack around YAC. Samuel has 121 targets on the season and is second in the league with 780 YAC. He also has rushed 63 times, with 17 of those in the red zone, and has scored eight touchdowns on the ground. Samuel has scored double-digit DKFP in every game this season with six above 20 and three higher than 30.

Value

Cedrick Wilson, Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers, $4,300 – The 49ers are second in rush defense DVOA and 16th in pass defense, so the path of least resistance is clear. Wilson was playing around 40% of the snaps, but that number jumped to 68% last week after Michael Gallup was lost. Wilson has received six targets in each of the last two games and is coming off a game in which he hauled in 119 yards and two touchdowns. He also scored two weeks ago.


Tight End

Stud

Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $6,400 – Gronk has caught 7 of 10 targets in each of Tampa’s last two contests. While he hasn’t scored since Week 13, he racked up 115 and 137 yards the last two games. With Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin out, Gronk will be an integral piece of the aerial attack. As mentioned in the Brady section, the Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points per game and touchdowns to the position.

Value

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,400 – Goedert missed the last game while on the reserve/COVID-19 IR. He’s been activated and should be good to go this weekend. When healthy, he’s played in 90% of the snaps and dominated the targets after Zach Ertz was traded. He received at least five targets in seven of those games. The matchup vs. the Bucs isn’t great, as they are good at defending the position, but the Eagles will likely tilt towards the pass in this one. Goedert didn’t play in the Week 6 matchup vs. the Bucs, but Ertz caught 4 of 6 targets for 29 yards and a touchdown.


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Chiefs DST, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, $3,300 – The Chiefs are always tough at home due to the raucous crowd, but things should ratchet up for the playoffs. The unit has racked up 31 sacks, 12 fumble recoveries, 15 interceptions and four touchdowns. They’ve scored double-digit DKFP five times this season, with a high of 24. Against the Steelers two weeks ago, they accumulated two sacks, two fumble recoveries and one interception. The Chiefs offense should put up points in this one, which could force more drop backs for Ben Roethlisberger ($5,200).

Value

Cowboys DST, Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers, $3,100 – The 49ers possess a good offense, so the probabilities of a big game from the Cowboys defense is low. That said, they do have playmakers in the secondary and have scored double-digit DKFP eight times, with three above 20. What if the Cowboys jump out to a two-score lead and Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,300) has to drop back 35-40 times? There could be plenty of fantasy goodies in that scenario.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (Sun)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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