The Ducks are still getting some respect in the odds here, but this is a team who only has two wins in their last seven games, and those two wins came against the Red Wings and Flyers. The Wild have struggled following the COVID break, but have now won two straight and have an 11-3-1 home record this season. The Ducks are just 7-7-1 on the road with a negative eight goal differential. Minnesota is a solid play at this price.
It’s safe to say we should just be riding the over on most MacKinnon props right now. On top of having 17 points in his last 10 games, MacKinnon is also averaging 6.0 shots over that same stretch as well. He’s only failed to go over 4.5 shots on net twice in his last 10 starts. The Coyotes just gave up 46 shots in their last start and have given up the fifth-most shots per game this season. The plus money for an over looks like a great target.
Dallas Stars at Florida Panthers
Roope Hintz ($6,500) — Joe Pavelski ($6,200) — Jason Robertson ($6,900)
The Stars come in as significant underdogs in this game, but the matchup has all of the makings of a classic fantasy shootout. Dallas and Florida played to a 6-5 Dallas win just nine days ago and the Stars first line has proven its ability to produce against all types of opponents this season. They come in ranked second in total goal production for a single line (in the entire league) and have combined for 17 points in their last three games alone.
The value has been there with this trio all season as both Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski remain two of the most efficient wingers with their shots—shooting at well above 15% for the year. The benefit of stacking the Stars over one of the Panthers’ lines is that we get better correlation and a cheaper overall salary, which will let us comeback in this game with at least on Florida stud. The Panthers have been scoring goals at an insane rate, but they also allow over 32 shots on net per game and are just league average in terms of killing penalties. The Stars’ power play (sixth-best in the league) can find success here. and if they do, these three will have another big night. The Stars’ top line is a great way to begin lineups today.
Superstar to Target
Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida Panthers vs. Dallas Stars ($7,200)
The Florida Panthers’ offense is nearly unstoppable at this point and come in averaging well over 5.0 goals per game over their last six starts. Huberdeau is highly involved as a member of the top six for Florida and their top power-play unit, and he has been a huge part of the team’s success this year. He’s landed three multi-point games over his last six starts and has power-play points in six of his last seven games.
The Stars’ penalty kill is an area worth attacking tonight as they feature the 12th-worst unit in the league, and they allowed Huberdeau to pick up multiple points and a power-play assist when these teams played two weeks ago. At a very affordable price, Huberdeau is the best way to get exposure to this nearly unfadeable Florida offense which is projected with a 3.8 implied goal total.
Value on Offense
Valeri Nichushkin, Colorado Avalanche vs. Arizona Coyotes ($4,400)
The Avalanche lead the league in goals per game and have moved up to seventh in power-play efficiency on the year. They also face a Coyotes team who gives up scoring chances in bunches and remains a bottom-five team on the penalty kill. Nichushkin has been getting more looks with the top power-play unit for the Avalanche lately and has been a great fantasy value for most of the year averaging 3.8 shots on net + blocked shots over his last 10 games. In a spot where Colorado has an insane 4.6 implied goal total, loading up on a cheap, top-six forward like Nichushkin should be high on your list of things to do today.
Patric Hornqvist, Florida Panthers vs. Dallas Stars ($2,900)
Despite playing in a mainly bottom-six role for the Panthers this year, Hornqvist has managed to average nearly three minutes of power-play time per game and has been very productive in his specialty role. He’s averaging 4.0 shots on net over his last 10 games and 0.5 points per game on the season. He’s also shooting well under his career shooting rate, so an uptick in goals at some point could be in the cards. The Panthers have a massive implied team total, so if you need a deeper value at forward, it’s hard to do better.
Kaapo Kahkonen, Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks ($7,900)
The Wild are set as the slates’ smallest favorites at -160 on the DraftKings Sportsbook, but they face a Ducks team who has lost five of their last seven games. The Wild’s strong home record should also be respected too, which only makes Kahkonen look like a better value here under $8,000. The second-year goalie has posted 19.0 or more DKFP in five of his last six starts and has stopped 69 of the last 73 shots he’s faced.
Going back even further in form, he’s posted a .935 save% (or better) in each of his last six appearances, and he faces off against a Ducks team who hasn’t managed to get more than two goals twice in their last seven starts. Kahkonen is a great upside target and may not come that heavily owned either with two other heavy favorites on this slate.
Value on Defense
Matthew Dumba, Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Ducks ($4,500)
For a player who averages over 24 minutes a game, Dumba doesn’t offer us the usual fantasy production we often see from players in his range. However, with Jonas Brodin out, Dumba’s offensive opportunity surely goes up as he’ll more than likely pick up some extra power-play time today. The Wild are also decent enough favorites that looking to their higher usage players is something we should be considering on this smaller slate. Dumba certainly fits the “value” moniker, as he’s available for under $5,000 on DraftKings for just the second time in 10 games.
He’s not necessarily a great cash target given his lower floor, but he’s certainly capable of a good spike game every now and then and should be getting more offensive chances with the injury issues facing the Wild. He’s a strong value pick in GPPs, where he’ll likely be attached to lower ownership numbers.
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche vs. Arizona Coyotes ($7,400)
The fact that we are even getting a shot to roster Makar at under $8,000 should likely be considered a gift today. The Avalanche defensemen is on pace for well over 30 goals on the season, and he has five goals and 12 points over his last 10 games. The matchup is the big thing though, as Arizona allowed 46 shots in their last outing (against another elite team in Toronto) and are fully outmatched on special teams where Makar has grabbed 12 of his 37 points this season.
There’s certainly some potential for other defensemen on this slate to produce big games as well, but Makar’s upside is nearly unmatched in this spot. He’s produced 19 DKFP or more in four of his last 10 games. On a three game slate (with lots of big underdogs), there’s plenty of low-priced plays across the board to help you fit him in. You’ll certainly feel it in the standings on this small slate, if he produces another ceiling type game. The difference between him and the next tier of players is too big to pass up on.
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