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NFL Picks Fantasy Football Values: Top DraftKings DFS Bargain Plays for Super Wild Card Weekend

Steve Buchanan goes position-by-position to find the best affordable plays for this week’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

How Super is this weekend? We all thought only the Super Bowl could be Super but now, Wild Card Weekend is also just that. I’m going to give you some value plays to use throughout your lineup for both Saturday and Sunday.

Follow me on Twitter: @SBuchanan24



QUARTERBACK

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,100 — Hurts is as low as I’d go when it comes to quarterbacks. One could make the case for Derek Carr ($5,500) against the Bengals but I like the upside much more for Hurts. The game script works well for Hurts, as the Eagles are currently +8 underdogs as of Friday afternoon. This has been a very generous secondary to throw against as we’ve seen all season long. Over the last few weeks as well, the usual brick wall the Bucs throw up against the run, has been a bit leaky as of late. The Jets and Falcons combined for 212 rushing yards in the final two weeks, which gives me hope we can see some of the ground magic from Hurts.

Let’s not forget, earlier this season when Hurts faced the Bucs, he snapped off 26 DKFP. He didn’t do much damage through the air (12-26, 115 passing yards) but he did on the ground, rushing for 44 yards on 10 attempts with two touchdowns. Believe it or not, the Bucs allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks on the season with 399. A lot of those came from Josh Allen, who ran for 109 but they also gave up 30+ to five other QBs. Between that and two Eagles receivers with an aDOT of at least 12 on the team (DeVonta Smith 14; Quez Watkins 12) we could see a big game from Hurts.


RUNNING BACK

($5,000 and under)

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, $4,700 – Cheap running backs, barring an injury, continue to be tough to come by. I do like Stevenson in this game against the Bills even with Damien Harris ($6,400) expected to play. He’s currently listed as questionable but the assumption is he’ll be good to go. Nonetheless, even when Harris and Stevenson have been active, they’ve shared the backfield carries enough to warrant some attention to both.

In game where both players were active, Harris averaged 56% of the carries while Stevenson was at 37.6%. The red zone carries aren’t too far off with both active, as Harris carried it 33 and Stevenson with 21. The weather for this game is supposed to be horrific, which could bring another run-heavy approach by the Patriots. Both backs were the focal points of the offense and Stevenson took 52.2% of the carries (24 ATT) for 78 yards while Harris snapped off 111 yards with a touchdown on just 10 carries. At his price point, he’s worth taking a look at.

**While writing this Ronald Jones ($5,600) was ruled out for Sunday against the Eagles. This opens up an RB1 role for Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($4,500) as a value play. That said, the Bucs throw more than any other team in the league, doing so 66.2% of the time.**


WIDE RECEIVER

($5,000 and under)

Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals, vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $5,000 – Boyd lands exactly on the mark where we can write up these value plays. Boyd has been a racking up the touchdowns lately, scoring three of the five he had during the regular season. Despite that, he’s only seen one red zone target over the last three weeks. He’s scored only one in the red zone, with the other two coming from distances of 56 and 68 yards. It’s impressive to see these numbers with so many mouths to feed in this Bengals offense. In coverage, Boyd will be matched up against CB Nate Hobbs, who has allowed an 83.6% reception rate. With Boyd seeing an average of 5.8 targets over the last five weeks, he should be able to collect some solid PPR points.

Ray-Ray McCloud, Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, $3,700 — The recent volume that McCloud has seen lately doesn’t match his salary. Granted, his salary has jumped from $3,100 when he faced the Chiefs in Week 16 to $3,700 this time around. Still, this is someone who has seen 27 targets over the last three weeks. The problem is, McCloud isn’t exactly doing much with the added target share, as he’s made 12 catches for a total of 97 yards. Despite that, Ben Roethlisberger ($5,200) continues to feed him, including seven red zone targets in the last three weeks. If he’s going to get that type of volume on a team that is +12.5 underdogs, I’ll take my chances on someone who has doubled their season target share over the past three weeks.


TIGHT END

($4,000 and under)

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, $3,700 – Finding a value tight end is nearly impossible for SUPER Wild Card Weekend. Henry is touchdown dependent and his fantasy points show that. He scored nine touchdowns this season and his fantasy outputs are massively different in game he didn’t. In games where Henry scored, he averaged 15.5 DKFP, which included two games where he scored twice. In games where he didn’t find the end zone, Henry averaged just 5.5 DKFP. Huge difference, right? When the Patriots are throwing in the red zone, the ball is generally going to Henry. He ended the regular season with a 23.3% target share, which was the best on the team. Jakobi Meyers ($4,500) was second on the team at 19.2%. If you’re willing to take the risk, Henry does have the potential to pay off this salary handsomely.



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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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